Poor start to weak stretch has Mets fans back to sell-now mode

For over a month Mets fans were waiting for this stretch in July where the club would play all of these games against sub-.500 teams. But what looked like a great opportunity to vault the team comfortably above .500 has not worked that way at all.

First up was the Astros and the Mets proceeded to lose two out of three. We rationalized it by saying they were a team as hot as we were and there was no shame not winning the series. Then it was a trip to Washington where we won the first two games, seemingly justifying the earlier rationalization. Then came two straight losses, which killed that momentum. And then last night’s butt kicking by the Pirates.

The first eight games against the teams we couldn’t wait to play have us 3-5.

The easy thing to do is tell David Stearns to start the fire sale. Trade anything that’s not nailed to the ground. Anyone on an expiring contract should pack their bags. Add to the prospect depth and continue focusing on 2026. Because this is not a one-year turnaround. Steve Cohen’s 3-5-year timeline for winning a World Series was just a pipe dream. It might be the easy thing but it’s the correct thing.

Or maybe there’s no prize given out to be the first team from the middle class to throw in the towel. It would be one thing if we had amazing assets to sell. Teams are always interested in a stud closer but we don’t have one of those. They also covet veteran relievers with a good track record, even if they’re not closers. Again, the Mets don’t have that. Their best reliever this moment might be Dedniel Nunez and no one’s giving up a whole lot for him.

Then there’s Pete Alonso – surely, he’ll bring back a lot. It’s likely he’s the most desirable trade chip the club has. But what’s the market going to pay for a slugger on an expiring deal who’s not slugging? Alonso has a .473 SLG, which ranks 32nd in the majors. He’d likely help a contender but no one’s giving up a top prospect for him for the hope he’ll rebound in the second half.

Which leaves what? The Mets don’t like their starters – why should any other club feel differently? And that leaves Harrison Bader. With a 1.3 bWAR, Bader has the highest mark of anyone we would trade. He’s fourth on the club, behind only Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos. Maybe there’s a team that needs an OF and a power bat and we could package Alonso and Bader together and get something worthwhile, something maybe equivalent to what we got last year for either Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander.

Maybe that’s good enough. Last year Steve Cohen didn’t think it was worthwhile to chase a playoff spot for a team that had only a 15% chance of making the playoffs and so he ordered the selloff. But FanGraphs has the Mets with a 26.8% shot of making the postseason, while Baseball-Reference has them with a 30.8% shot. Power Rankings Guru has the Mets with a 35.7% chance. None of those are particularly strong. But they’re all well above what Cohen described their chances last year.

There’s just not going to be the opportunity to get both decent prospects and $30 million of pre-tax savings like they did last year. And they have a better shot of qualifying for the playoffs. Put it all together and there’s no reason to sell on July 6.

Cohen said hope is not a strategy but that’s where we are right now. The first hope is that we start playing better and beating these weaker teams the next two weeks. If that doesn’t happen, the hope is that Alonso goes on a power streak that makes him more attractive to contenders. To a lesser degree we can hope that Adam Ottavino strings a bunch of good outings together, which might make him worthwhile to a playoff squad. Maybe Luis Severino, too, but yesterday’s outing hurts in that regard.

There’s one other player to at least consider. And that’s Kodai Senga. If he comes back right after the All-Star break, he could get two starts, maybe three, before the trade deadline. Senga has a full no-trade clause but we all know that those can be bypassed by buying them out. Would Senga prefer to stay on a team that appears to be two or more years from contention or one that he could make the playoffs this season?

Another thing that would make Senga attractive to a contender is that with his missed time this year, he’s not going to make the 400 innings combined for 2023-2025 that would trigger an out clause in his contract. So, his potential new team would have him for the remainder of this year, along with three more seasons at a great deal.

But Senga needs to come back and pitch in the majors before they can even consider dealing him. So, being sellers at the deadline is still very much in play. It’s just that there’s no reason to start the selloff today.