Has more gone wrong or gone right so far for the 2024 Mets?

After 92 games, the Mets are 47-45, which is more or less where most people figured they would be. But the way they’ve gotten there has been quite different from the blueprint drawn up before the season began. Let’s ignore cold starts and hot finishes and instead focus on what the players have done over the 92 games played. With that thought in mind, let’s look at things that have stood out, good and bad, for the first 57% of the year. Let’s start with the bad:

Catcher – The starter missed nearly two months and the two players behind him were both DFAd
First Base – Their top power hitter has a SLG mark 35 points below his previous worst mark
Second Base – Their starter has an OPS+ of 69
Third Base – Their Opening Day starter was sent to the minors
Right Field – Starter has been out for three weeks and his return date is unknown
Designated Hitter – Offseason addition missed the first month of the year
Starting Pitchers – Their top starter has yet to throw a pitch in the majors, another was busted to the pen and a third sent to the minors
Relief Pitchers – Their closer has been on the IL, been suspended and hasn’t pitched exceptionally well when healthy, three members of the Opening Day pen have been DFAd, two more have suffered season-ending injuries, two top replacements are currently on the IL and two others who have been here since the start have ERAs near 5.00 for the year.

For a team that was expected to be around .500 – that’s an extensive list of things that have gone wrong yet the team has a winning record. So, you know things have gone right, too. Here’s the list of positive developments:

Catcher – When he’s been on the field, Francisco Alvarez has been terrific. He’s got a 148 OPS+ and the team has a 3.21 ERA in his 300 innings behind the plate. Luis Torrens was a mid-season acquisition and he’s posted a 145 OPS+ in 53 PA.

Second Base – Veteran Jose Iglesias joined the team and immediately improved the defense, as expected. But he’s come out of nowhere at the plate, with a 146 OPS+. And if that’s not enough, he’s written a song that has become the team’s victory anthem.

Third Base – Originally bumped from the roster at the last minute, Mark Vientos went back to Triple-A and hit at that level like he’s always done. Finally given a chance with consistent playing time in the majors, Vientos has a 153 OPS+, with 21 of his 50 hits going for extra-bases. While he’s still not a good defensive player, his defense has at least reached the “playable” level.

Center Field – After posting a combined 77 OPS+ over the previous two seasons, Harrison Bader has a 108 mark this year. At first it was the hits falling in at an unsustainable rate. But now he’s delivering power, with a .197 ISO in his last 23 games. His defense in center field has been above-average, if not quite the Gold Glove level he displayed in the past.

Starting Pitchers – Sean Manaea (3.43), Jose Quintana (3.91) and Luis Severino (3.78) all have ERAs in the 3s, while both Steamer and ZiPS thought they’d all be in the 4s, with the latter forecasting a 4.54 ERA for Manaea. Jose Butto, David Peterson and Christian Scott have each given the club solid results in their starts.

Relief Pitching – After being terrible as a starter, Adrian Houser has been terrific as a long man out of the pen. In 30 IP, he has a 2.40 ERA. Dedniel Nunez has been a godsend, as in 28 IP he’s posted a 2.51 ERA and he’s worked his way up to being the club’s primary setup man. Reed Garrett was very good at the start before coming down with an arm injury. Sean Reid-Foley has a 1.66 ERA in 21.2 IP but is currently on the IL. Butto has given five scoreless innings as a reliever.

*****

In a way, it’s hard to know what to make of this team, especially given the Mets’ 8-2 record versus the Nationals. It’s good that they’ve beaten up on a second-division club but they will only play them three more times this year and not until mid-September. Another thing to consider is that the Mets are playing .630 ball in one-run games, with a record of 17-10. Since part – certainly not all – of a team’s record in those games can be attributed to luck, will their good fortune hold out the rest of the season?

One last thing to ponder is the club’s 25-12 record in games that Alvarez starts. That’s a .676 winning percentage, which is better than the Phillies’ MLB-best .656 mark. How do you feel about that? Certainly, a 37-game sample is not very large. At the same time, there’s enough there not to dismiss it out of hand. Can Alvarez continue to make an outsized contribution to winning? Recall how he faded offensively down the stretch last year.

It would be nice if Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil could provide more production for the club after the All-Star break. Yet it feels like the pitching is more of a question mark going forward than the offense. Hopefully, Kodai Senga can return and give the club the same excellent performance he contributed a season ago. And may Garrett and Reid-Foley return from the IL and bolster the pen.

If those things happen, the Mets will play meaningful games in September, regardless of what David Stearns does at the trading deadline.