Hey, not sure if you’ve heard but the Mets are going to the NLCS. It’s a tremendous accomplishment for a team that most of us didn’t think would even make the playoffs, much less win two series once there. Sure, sure – your neighbor and your co-worker and half the guys at the bar will tell you that they knew all along. But the vast majority of them are lying. Our own Steven Shrager predicted 88 wins before the season started. Yet around these parts, he was a very lonely man, as he had few – if any – co-signors on that forecast. If you have receipts for a win prediction before the season started, by all means link to them in the comments section. Otherwise, don’t crow about how you “just knew” that this would happen.
One thing that occurred to me last night was Steve Cohen’s proclamation when he officially became the team’s owner. Here’s how mets.com reporter Anthony DiComo described it on Nov. 20, 2020:
Under previous ownership, the Mets made the playoffs three times in 19 seasons. Cohen has not only the desire as a lifelong Mets fan to change that, but also the business acumen and deep pockets required to run things at an optimal level. Asked Tuesday about his aspirations, Cohen said bluntly that he will be disappointed if the Mets do not win a World Series within three to five years.
That three-to-five-years forecast became a punching bag of sorts and include me among the many who took a few swings. Yet here we are in year four as one of the final four teams with a shot at winning it all. It’s nothing short of remarkable. And the thing is that the pundits/oddsmakers thought less of this team before the season started than any in Cohen’s stewardship. Don’t believe me? Well, here’s the proof:
2021 – BetMGM – as linked by The Athletic – 90.5 wins
2022 – CBS Sports’ Matt Snyder – 90.5 wins
2023 – BetMGM – as linked by Sports Illustrated – 95.5 wins
2024 – VegasInsider – 82.5 wins
As far as winning the World Series, as the great Winston Wolf once said, “Let’s not start sucking each other’s (lollipops) quite yet.” That’s eight wins away and those eight are going to be a lot tougher than the five they’ve won so far in this postseason. Yet if the 2024 Mets have taught us anything it’s that there’s nothing that they can’t achieve.
The Mets still don’t know who their opponent will be in the NLCS, as the Dodgers staved off elimination and forced a Game 5 with an 8-0 win over the Padres Wednesday night. Both teams travel to L.A. for the final game of that series Friday night. The Padres have Fernando Tatis, the hottest player in the series. Yet before the postseason began, this Mets fan feared San Diego due to the 1-2 punch of Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, who both dominated the Mets in the 2022 Wild Card round. Now, with Musgrove sidelined, the Padres don’t seem quite as formidable. At least to me.
Musgrove injury aside, my hope is to face the Dodgers. L.A. led the National League with 98 wins this year and it would be nice if the Mets would make the World Series because they beat the best team in the league. It would also give the Mets a series win over all three division leaders. Plus, there are more Dodgers fans in my universe than there are Padres fans. Who knows – one or two of them might show up for a Game Chatter!
Regardless of the opponent, the NLCS won’t start until Sunday, so the Mets have time to catch their breath and plan a way forward. The most encouraging thing is that they’ll likely get Jeff McNeil back for the series. McNeil got a waiver to play in the Arizona Fall League and will get to face live pitching in a competitive situation for two days. His inclusion on the roster will allow Jose Iglesias to get some time off and think about why he swings at curves way out of the strike zone.
The days off will also give the main relievers a much-needed blow. It sure would be nice if we had the Edwin Diaz from earlier in the year – or 2022! – rather than the guy who’s made every game an adventure like he’s done recently. My hope is that Carlos Mendoza reevaluates his plan to bring in Diaz early and pitch him for more than three outs. He may not be working with a great pen but there are enough solid relieves to get the job done while requiring just three outs from their closer.
I predicted 90 and then joked after game five, okay 89. I did not post it here, so you can believe me or not, I do have some pretty high character witnesses.
I also completely gave up on my own prediction when they were eleven out. When I thought 90 was possible I absolutely did not believe it could include the sustained run that followed to achieve it. So, I was wrong anyway.
That’s what’s great about it all. That mostly everyone knows pretty much nothing. If it could be figured out there would be no reason to watch.
LGM!
I think about Steve Cohen’s opening statement about winning the World Series within five years a lot. We may not be in the World Series yet but it sure is exciting. The 8th and 9th innings of every game is excruciating. Both the Dodgers and Padres are extremely deep and talented so its not going to be easy.
“Now, with Musgrove sidelined, the Padres don’t seem quite as formidable. At least to me.”
I think it bears mentioning that Mets handled the Padres extremely well in the regular season — 5-2, and outscoring them by 17 runs and beating Michael King and Dylan Cease (twice!) along the way.
That is to say, I like their chances against San Diego.
Yeah and one of those losses was against Musgrove, when he threw 7 shutout innings, with one hit, no walks and 9 Ks.
In 2023 it was 6 shutout innings, three hits, no walks and 7 Ks.
In the 2022 playoffs it was 7 shutout innings with one hit, one walk and 5 Ks.
Musgrove’s last three starts against the Mets — 20 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 21 KS
Shoot, the Mets scored a run off Mike Scott in the ’86 NLCS – which is more than they’ve done against Musgrove