As Halloween is approaching, I can think of nothing scarier than for the Mets to start Luis Severino in a winner-take-all Game 7 in the NLCS. Yet that’s what the Mets are hoping happens, with ace Sean Manaea slated to start Game 6. My idea would be to hold Manaea for the crucial Game 7 and find someone – anyone – to start Game 6, instead.
Once the Mets fell behind in the series, 3-1, the mantra became to take things one game at a time. And that worked, as they staved off elimination in Game 5. So, why abandon that belief now and not do everything to win Game 6? And why the fear about Severino starting Game 7?
The Dodgers are set up to use a bullpen game Sunday night in Game 6 and if necessary to start Walker Buehler – who dominated the Mets in Game 3 – for Game 7. If Manaea gives the Mets their best chance to win – wouldn’t it be more prudent to hold him for Game 7, where the pitching matchup is going to be more difficult?
Obviously, the reply to that is that the most prudent thing is to win Game 6 because if you don’t do that, there is no Game 7.
However, let’s say that Manaea gives the Mets a 60% chance to win. And the Dodgers using a bullpen game gives the Mets a 50% chance to win, regardless of who they use as a starter. Do you want to use your ace in a game with a decent chance to win without him? Or do you want to hold him for the final game, one where if Severino starts, you have less than a 50% chance to win? To me, the way to go is take the coin flip in Game 6 and use Manaea and his 60% chance in Game 7.
Of course, there are two things that we would need to know – or have more information – before pulling the trigger. And those are who starts Game 6 instead of Manaea and why the reluctance to use Severino on normal rest for Game 7?
There’s not a great answer for the first question. Perhaps the best option is Kodai Senga, who looked so bad in Game 1. Senga’s average fastball velocity in that game was 94.5, which is about four mph slower than what it should be. Is he not ready to pitch in the majors, not fully recovered from his last IL stint? If that’s the case, the Mets shouldn’t use him at all the rest of the way. Yet Carlos Mendoza has stated that he’ll use Senga out of the bullpen and won’t hesitate to use him in any situation. That doesn’t sound like someone who’s not healthy and ready to go.
One thing to at least consider is that Senga does better on what we consider extra rest. With his start in Game 1, he was pitching on what we consider normal rest. But if he were to take the mound in Game 6, Senga will have had that extra rest, having had six days off since the Game 1 start. That might give him a better shot to recapture the lost velocity on his fastball. But will it allow him to throw strikes? That’s a concern whether he starts a game or is used out of the pen. And it’s a concern with just about every pitcher on the Mets’ roster.
Which brings us to Severino.
During the regular season, Severino posted a 3.91 ERA, certainly a good mark, one that led lunkhead John Smoltz to label him a star. But the problem with that is that Severino cleaned up against the Marlins and Nationals and was considerably worse against the rest of MLB. In six starts against the bottom two teams in the NL East, Severino was 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA. Against the rest of baseball, he was 7-7 with a 4.50 ERA.
And that 4.50 ERA includes starts in April and May in Citi Field, when it was playing like an extreme pitcher’s park. In five home starts in this span – none against the Marlins and Nats – Severino had 31 IP and 5 ER, a 1.45 ERA.
In his last 16 starts of the year – including playoffs – where he faced a team besides the Marlins or Nationals, Severino has allowed 53 ER in 88.2 IP, which is a 5.38 ERA.
That number is bad enough all on its own. But the Dodgers aren’t some random, middle-of-the-road team. They’re an offensive juggernaut that has destroyed Mets pitching this series. In his first start against L.A. in the NLCS, Severino allowed two unearned runs in 4.2 IP. That seems to me to be the best one could hope for from this alleged “ace.”
That start also included four walks. If it’s reasonable to ask what Senga’s control would be like – isn’t it fair to ask the same thing about Severino?
Barring a last-minute miracle, Mendoza is going to go Manaea-Severino in the final two games of the season. My concern is that this is just example number 5,000,001 in managing not to give your team the best chance to win but rather doing what will shield yourself from criticism. If Severino gets knocked around, no one will question why they started him. Instead, they’ll talk about how it was his turn to pitch and he just had a bad game.
My hope is that both Manaea and Severino twirl gems later today and Monday. If Severino pitches well, you’ll see me cheering in the Game Chatter and the Gut Reaction will include a note about how wrong I was about him starting. But if there’s a Game 7 and Severino lays an egg, Mendoza will not get a free pass from me, even if he gets one from everyone else on the planet.
*****
Join us in the Game Chatter for tonight’s 8:08 p.m. start — https://substack.com/chat/1934025/post/238bb0a2-0ae4-42cd-8838-44fa26e9e96a
I’m not understanding what the game 6 plan would be if you hold Manaea? Hope that Senga finds his stuff and use a pseudo bullpen game? Win today with the ace and force a game 7 then really anything can happen. If Manaea can give them depth tonight you can have Severino on a short leash with some rested arms. If Buehler tanks in game 7 you get 2 bullpen games in a row.
I don’t agree with the bullpen game today. I would go with Manaea and Severino in games 6 and 7 if there is one. I wouldn’t even know who to use in a bullpen game. I’d rather take my chances with Severino in game 7 on a short leash and then use that as a bullpen game if he doesn’t have it. Also, despite what happened in game 3, I’m not convinced that we have a better chance against the Dodgers bullpen than we do against Buehler. Yes he shut the Mets down in game 3 but it took him 90 pitches to get through 4 and he’s been bad all year. He may shut us down again, but in my opinion there’s a better chance that we flip the script on him like we did to Flaherty.
100% agree with this take
Brian, hard to understand reasoning. First, you need to force a Game 7. What better way to try to do that than to have your ace. As for Severino, I thought he threw pretty well, just got sabotaged by his defense and Jose Inglesias letting a double play ball go through his legs. And then Severino, that amazing fielder that Smoltz knows about, can’t handle comebackers. That’s how the Dodgers got to him.
Sorry Brian, I dont accept this at all. There is no game 7. While in our minds they have to win 2 games, the fact is they have a must win today and our best starter available. 100 times out of 100 I get Manaea out there for the W. Game 7 will take care of itself if it gets there.
As an added feature, it gives Manaea a head start on the WS should it get there.
As for me, this I see one game left in the season, and its time to send out your best.
Manaea in Game #6. Senga, if he is healthy, in Game #7 then Severino. Otherwise, if Senga is not healthy, then go with Severino.
Senga, when healthy, is a better pitcher than Manaea. Senga would be well rested but he can’t give them length. Manaea can give the Mets length in Game #6 which would be good for the Mets in Game #7.
As I said before this series, Quintana should have pitched in Game #3 and Game #7 and Severino in Game #4. Quintana was a better pitcher than Severino in the second half of the season. Oh well. Let’s sweep the Dodgers in Los Angeles. LGM
Poppycock! win Game6 and then worry about tomorrow
As we all know, there is no game seven without a win in game six. The Dodgers have the luxury of throwing a bullpen game being up three games to two. The Mets do not. Had Senga had three good innings the other day without looking like a an A ball pitcher without command, it would be much easier to pencil him into start either game six or game seven. But the fact is he had nothing.
The big factor is the Mets have to hit and knock in runs in scoring position. It’s plain and simple. If they win tonight, then, in my opinion, you throw Severino and you have everyone behind him ready to come in including Peterson, including Senga, Quintana and anyone else who is able to pitch.
There is a lot of work to do for the 2025 season, starting with resigning some of these pitchers on their squad, hoping that Senga comes back to form, and then filling in with one or two high-end front line pitchers.
Let start with a win tonight. LGM
Kind of boring, but I’ve got to agree with the group. The only way I could see them holding Manaea for a potential game 7 is if there was a fatigue issue that would limit his ability to pitch deep today. We all know that they need to win today, and they gave their ace going against the pen.
Manaea absolutely needs to throw quality strikes and give them length today, like 7 innings. In a perfect world, that occurs and Stanek and Diaz aren’t needed, or only 1 is needed for 1 inning. A game 7 will be all hands on deck, and seven’s leash will be about 6 inches. Also, is Stanek and Diaz don’t throw today I’d expect them to cover everything beyond the 5th. Ferris shut them down first time but so did Flaherty. Find a way today to get to game 7 without burning the two big boys at the back of the pen. Double digit runs will be nice from the bats.
Expections were low in March, lower in May.
Delighted to make the postseason, surprised by WC series victory & acutely satisfied by a division win over the Phillies. Dared to hope for more but had that “house money” freedom of angst. I feel like I had a good meal and am ready for a nap.
Grew up a few blocks from Ebbets, but the Divas are not the Bums. I might catch a few innings if the Turner Classic Movie is airing anything with Ernest Borgnine–otherwise, bring on the Winter Meetings.
There is some urgency though. I’ll be 80 before Spring Training and would like to taste 1955, 1969 and/or 1986 once more.
And thanks Brian & gang for the ride.