Before the 2024 season started, my opinion was that the 2025 Opening Day payroll was going to depend on how the team did. If they met my expectations of an 80-82-win season, the payroll goal was going to be to get underneath the tax threshold that resulted in a draft-pick penalty, if not to get under all tax thresholds. But if they advanced far in the playoffs, they wouldn’t be able to slow-play the payroll, as there would be too many expectations, both internal and external. And that’s what happened.
In his post-season news conference, David Stearns spoke about the upcoming payroll. In an article about that press conference, Will Sammon and Tim Britton from The Athletic had this:
After a relatively austere offseason last year, the Mets once again plan to be big players in free agency. New York has around $180 million coming off its team payroll, and Stearns said that he expects to spend “a good portion of that.”
“We’ve got financial flexibility,” he said. “It means pretty much the entirety of the player universe is potentially accessible to us. That’s an enormous opportunity. I envision us taking advantage of that opportunity and being aggressive in certain spaces.”
Some will read that as the team having the means to sign Juan Soto. And while that’s the dream scenario, it also means they can retain any of their own free agents that they wish. And there are going to be plenty of those. Here are the free agents – and potential ones – with my ranking of the importance of the Mets retaining them.
1. Sean Manaea – He has a player option he’s guaranteed to turn down. The Mets will absolutely extend him the Qualifying Offer, which is $21.05 million this year, and Manaea will turn that down, too. He’s not the top free agent pitcher available but his market should be robust. It would not be a shock if he got five years. And if Manaea gets that many years, it wouldn’t be a shock if he got a contract that reached nine digits.
2. Ryne Stanek – After a rough start, Stanek essentially was the club’s primary setup man by the end of the year. He’s younger than you might think – he’ll be in his age-33 season in 2025. Stanek will get a multi-year deal, possibly for three seasons.
3. Jesse Winker – There seems to be a good fit between player and team here. My opinion is that Winker would prefer a 450-PA role on a contender rather than a 600-PA role on a second-division club. While offering different skill sets, Winker could essentially replace Tyrone Taylor as fourth outfielder while also getting a lot of run at DH.
4. Pete Alonso – My stance on Alonso is pretty well defined at this point. He’s not worth a big multi-year deal like many want to give him. There seems to be a price point that both sides can agree to with a three or possible even a four-year deal. If Alonso is determined to get a five-year deal, my hope is that the Mets let him go elsewhere.
5. Luis Severino – My thought is that the Mets should offer him the Q.O. and hope he declines it. If he comes back on a one-year deal, that won’t be terrible. Still, he’s nowhere near as good or valuable as many seem to think he is. He was essentially a league-average starter and should be treated accordingly.
6. Jose Iglesias – One of the key things with free agency is to pay a player based on what you’ll expect him to produce moving forward, not on what he gave you previously. And Iglesias simply isn’t going to have a .382 BABIP again. It would be nice if he was content to return on a 250-PA basis. But the Mets shouldn’t plan on a roll bigger than that. There are just too many Jose Valentin vibes here for my preference.
7. Phil Maton – The Mets hold a team option that they’ll likely decline. It’s hard to imagine that there will be a big market for his services. Still, he’d be a nice guy to have on a 1/$4 deal.
8. Jose Quintana – Despite the low ranking on this list, Quintana is still a solid MLB pitcher. It’s just that if the Mets are going to give a player an eight-figure deal, the hope is that he would have stuff where he could throw strikes and not worry about it getting clobbered. If his market cratered, it would be fine to have him on a cut-rate deal as an SP5.
9. Brooks Raley – There’s the unknown on when he’ll be able to resume pitching. If he was healthy, Raley would be a lot higher on this list. But he’s not. An incentive-laden deal could work for both parties.
10. J.D. Martinez – In the middle of the year, it seemed possible for Martinez to come back in 2025. But with the way the season ended, it’s hard to imagine the Mets re-upping with him.
11. Adam Ottavino – Carlos Mendoza apparently lost all faith in Ottavino down the stretch. It seems to me he’s still worth a roster spot but it’s difficult to imagine him getting much more than an NRI at this point.
12. Drew Smith – Is it better to wager on an old Ottavino or Smith trying to rebound from injury? It’s hard to make that particular call. My bet would be on Ottavino but there will be no argument if you say Smith.
13. Harrison Bader – He’s just not good.
Yeah, as much as I love Pete, giving him a long-term deal is too risky. Hopefully he will accept a short-term deal, like 3 around 3 years.
It seems we are pretty much on the same page with FAs.
Cohen is clearly gonna dump a lot of $ this year. Good thing so much bank is coming off the books. and frankly, I dont care how much Cohen spends. Im pretty sure the 1B$ for Ohtani and Yo set the pace for “Dodgers East”. Either he gonna pay up or he was lying. I believe he will choose the former.
I think it’s a dream that Pete takes a 3 year contract. It just wont happen. As far as the Mets go, I think there is more to the equation than only the numbers – that we can all see decreasing. Baseball is also an entertainment business and Pete is loved, and will own all the Mets records for power, by a long shot, fans love him to death, and its clear he wants to stay and be the third leg of the Lindor-Nimmo-Alonso core of players. I could see the Mets get to 6 or 7 and 170M total. There’s a cost of living rise from the Freeman and Olson deals, so this would put him at the top but not insane like getting to 200M, which I cant see. But Pete is a Met at heart and glue guy, and I expect him to be signed – for more than the numbers say he should get.
I think Soto makes too much sense to pass on, and he’s clearly money driven. I can see Cohen spending more than 1B$ on FA for next year. The team is already worth a billion $ more than what he paid for it. It’s the cost of doing business. Getting to game 6 in the CS, 2 wins away from the WS put a lot of good vibes on this team and the organization is stable. Owner, PBO, manager are set in stone.
I’m a big fan of Alonso, but I don’t see a 30 year-old Boras client taking a 3-year deal. Someone else will offer him a 5-6 year contract, so I expect he’ll be gone. If Alonso goes, maybe Vientos plays 1B and Acuna slots in at 3B.
Soto is a great talent, but with so many other holes to fill (rotation especially), I don’t see a 10-year contract at $500 million as possible.
I’d like to see Mets sign 2 of 3 of Burnes, Fried, and Flaherty to shore up the rotation.
Can’t see the Yankees not re-signing Soto. He and Judge are perhaps the best one two punch in baseball and at some point Stanton will continue to break down and really not be counted on. I would go five years at 25 million a year for Alonso, but that’s it. If he won’t take Freddie Freeman type money then he must think he had a much better year this year. I’d like to sign Manaea to a three year deal and if Iggy can come back on a reasonable contract as a super sub, then I’d love to have him back. The reality on the rest of the Mets free agents are all replaceable with equal or better free agents on the market this off season. A Q offer to Severino makes sense and I’d sign him to a two year deal. Took all season to like Stanek and I could see giving him a 2-3 year deal.
It’s going to be an interesting off season so let’s get this series over already and get going!
In 2025 Stearns should try to get under the luxury tax of $241m. He primarily needs to get a SP2, SP4 and a power hitter.
Manaea at SP2 is appealing for a 3 year contract because he will be 33. Corbin Burnes at 30 is more appealing and he is better but will be more expensive. Flaherty and Fried are younger also.
Severino or Quintana are appealing as the SP4. Severino isn’t worth the QO and the compensation is only 4th round draft choice. The fall back could be Quintana.
Soto would be a good fit to provide the power in the lineup. He is coming into his primary years. Alonso could be a fall back option.
Iglesias would be a nice addition as a veteran back up infielder.
Winker would be a platoon partner for Marte.
Stanek and Maton are worthy for consideration.
Raley and Smith were injured and Stearns should look for replacements.
Stearns should move on from Martinez, Ottavino and Bader.
Maybe it goes without saying, but what makes this off-season more confounding than usual are the injuries to Mauricio, Williams, and Gilbert. No one really knows what kind of MLB player any of them will turn out to be, if at all. I would hate the see a potential star be blocked by FA inked to a long-term contract but it would be worse to expect one to step up and have them fail. They’ve all been rated higher than Vientos at one point or another.
As was Baty, and he’s clearly not a sure thing.
Perhaps an ideal archetype for a 2025 FA is a strong performer who needs to prove themselves after a bad 2024 and is willing to sign a one-year deal, with or without options. Ala Severino or Manaea, but only for a position player.
Theoretically, this would strengthen the lineup while not necessarily blocking any rising star long term.
I don’t know if there are any that fit that bill. Ironically, Alonso might be the best example of that. One could argue that would never happen, with Boras as his agent, but Bellinger just settled for that a couple years ago.