A look at the Mets’ upcoming free agents

Before the 2024 season started, my opinion was that the 2025 Opening Day payroll was going to depend on how the team did. If they met my expectations of an 80-82-win season, the payroll goal was going to be to get underneath the tax threshold that resulted in a draft-pick penalty, if not to get under all tax thresholds. But if they advanced far in the playoffs, they wouldn’t be able to slow-play the payroll, as there would be too many expectations, both internal and external. And that’s what happened.

In his post-season news conference, David Stearns spoke about the upcoming payroll. In an article about that press conference, Will Sammon and Tim Britton from The Athletic had this:

After a relatively austere offseason last year, the Mets once again plan to be big players in free agency. New York has around $180 million coming off its team payroll, and Stearns said that he expects to spend “a good portion of that.”

“We’ve got financial flexibility,” he said. “It means pretty much the entirety of the player universe is potentially accessible to us. That’s an enormous opportunity. I envision us taking advantage of that opportunity and being aggressive in certain spaces.”

Some will read that as the team having the means to sign Juan Soto. And while that’s the dream scenario, it also means they can retain any of their own free agents that they wish. And there are going to be plenty of those. Here are the free agents – and potential ones – with my ranking of the importance of the Mets retaining them.

1. Sean Manaea – He has a player option he’s guaranteed to turn down. The Mets will absolutely extend him the Qualifying Offer, which is $21.05 million this year, and Manaea will turn that down, too. He’s not the top free agent pitcher available but his market should be robust. It would not be a shock if he got five years. And if Manaea gets that many years, it wouldn’t be a shock if he got a contract that reached nine digits.

2. Ryne Stanek – After a rough start, Stanek essentially was the club’s primary setup man by the end of the year. He’s younger than you might think – he’ll be in his age-33 season in 2025. Stanek will get a multi-year deal, possibly for three seasons.

3. Jesse Winker – There seems to be a good fit between player and team here. My opinion is that Winker would prefer a 450-PA role on a contender rather than a 600-PA role on a second-division club. While offering different skill sets, Winker could essentially replace Tyrone Taylor as fourth outfielder while also getting a lot of run at DH.

4. Pete Alonso – My stance on Alonso is pretty well defined at this point. He’s not worth a big multi-year deal like many want to give him. There seems to be a price point that both sides can agree to with a three or possible even a four-year deal. If Alonso is determined to get a five-year deal, my hope is that the Mets let him go elsewhere.

5. Luis Severino – My thought is that the Mets should offer him the Q.O. and hope he declines it. If he comes back on a one-year deal, that won’t be terrible. Still, he’s nowhere near as good or valuable as many seem to think he is. He was essentially a league-average starter and should be treated accordingly.

6. Jose Iglesias – One of the key things with free agency is to pay a player based on what you’ll expect him to produce moving forward, not on what he gave you previously. And Iglesias simply isn’t going to have a .382 BABIP again. It would be nice if he was content to return on a 250-PA basis. But the Mets shouldn’t plan on a roll bigger than that. There are just too many Jose Valentin vibes here for my preference.

7. Phil Maton – The Mets hold a team option that they’ll likely decline. It’s hard to imagine that there will be a big market for his services. Still, he’d be a nice guy to have on a 1/$4 deal.

8. Jose Quintana – Despite the low ranking on this list, Quintana is still a solid MLB pitcher. It’s just that if the Mets are going to give a player an eight-figure deal, the hope is that he would have stuff where he could throw strikes and not worry about it getting clobbered. If his market cratered, it would be fine to have him on a cut-rate deal as an SP5.

9. Brooks Raley – There’s the unknown on when he’ll be able to resume pitching. If he was healthy, Raley would be a lot higher on this list. But he’s not. An incentive-laden deal could work for both parties.

10. J.D. Martinez – In the middle of the year, it seemed possible for Martinez to come back in 2025. But with the way the season ended, it’s hard to imagine the Mets re-upping with him.

11. Adam Ottavino – Carlos Mendoza apparently lost all faith in Ottavino down the stretch. It seems to me he’s still worth a roster spot but it’s difficult to imagine him getting much more than an NRI at this point.

12. Drew Smith – Is it better to wager on an old Ottavino or Smith trying to rebound from injury? It’s hard to make that particular call. My bet would be on Ottavino but there will be no argument if you say Smith.

13. Harrison Bader – He’s just not good.