After Brian “awarded” me the Diamondbacks I took a quick look at their payroll and roster. Next I looked at the major moves the team made since Tony Larussa took over as team President on May 17, 2014.
– Traded Martin Prado for minor league prospects
– Traded Gerardo Parra for minor league prospects
– Traded Brandon McCarthy for Vidal Nuno
All three of those moves lowered payroll and added to the Dbacks long-term prospect pool. Considering the team had the worst record in the NL last year and the fact that the Dodgers and Giants are in the NL West it was a logical beginning of a rebuilding effort. It all made sense, and I set a goal to add young talent for 2015 while maintaining the flexibility for the franchise to add more talent in 2016. I also wanted to structure a roster where 2015 could be used to allow young players already on the team a chance to play and either succeed or prove a failure. The good news about the Dbacks is that the roster includes Paul Goldschmidt signed at very reasonable rates for years to come.
My first transaction was to trade Aaron Hill and $5 million to the Orioles for two prospects, OF Drew Dosch and P Jon Keller. Both Dosch and Keller are still too young to compete for a 2015 roster spot, but both are rated in the Orioles Top 20 and add depth to the Dbacks overall system. Next I traded Oliver Perez and Addison Reed to the Dodgers for Kensley Jansen, Juan Uribe and Zach Lee. This transaction upgraded the team’s closer position while also adding a major league ready Top 100 pitching prospect (Lee.) With Hill gone, Uribe would offer insurance if any of the young second year infield trio of Jake Lamb, Didi Gregorious, or Chris Owings tank. And unlike Hill, Uribe is not under contract for 2016, which helps the flexibility picture going forward. Next I made one aggressive free agent signing, offering $21.8 million for Yasmani Tomas. Tomas fits what the Dbacks need to target, a player who is young and projects to be productive beyond 2015. And after finding out I had been awarded Tomas I was done for my offseason.
Where does that leave the Dbacks? For 2015 they have a potential middle of the order (holdover Mark Trumbo, Goldschmidt, and Tomas) that could hit close to 100 home runs. Considering the scarcity of power in baseball it’s a nice start. They also have a proven closer in Jansen, who is under team control for years to come. Other than that, the team would be banking on improvement from the young players all over this roster. Chances are there will not be enough growth in 2015 to go from last year’s 64 wins to the playoffs, but with Goldschmidt and Trumbo returning from injury and Jansen and Tomas added to the team real improvement can begin. That leads us to 2016.
Although given a $118 million dollar budget, I only brought the Dbacks to $104 million this offseason. Additionally, moving Hill eliminated an $11 million dollar 2016 commitment. Bronson Arroyo (out for 2015) should be back in 2016, yet his salary drops $5 million. The albatross of Cody Ross ($9.5 million in 2015) is replaced by a small $1 million buyout. Trevor Cahill’s $12.5 million goes away too, and with $14 million of budget room in 2015 money could be added to a deal at the break to add to the prospect list if Cahill can pitch decently this year.
When you add all those dollars to the $14 million, the Dbacks would have over $50 million to spend in 2016 to add to their young core. How the current young group progresses will dictate whether that would be the time to go “all-in” or whether the Dbacks were still another year away.
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Hey, didn’t you once write for that “2 Guys” blog? I always liked you best, way more than that other guy, though he did have a better handle on the objective pronoun.
Anyway, Trumbo is the guy I’d look to deal, if possible, because I don’t personally believe in him as an NL player. The glove is brutal. But maybe he becomes the Dbacks answer to Dave Kingman; gotta give the fans something during those lean years. He could be quite a carrot to dangle at the deadline in July.
Also, just a wild guess here, but I think LaRussa is going to try to follow the Alderson approach, yet with a difference. I think Tony thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room. He won’t have Sandy’s patience. He’s not going to sit on his hands through four years of bad, boring baseball. Expect a crazy trade or two out of the blue. If I’m a rival GM, I’d look to fleece him. Otherwise, yes, seems like a pretty accurate take on the Dbacks problems. With their payroll potential, they could quickly bounce back — but not in 2015.
I also like the idea of moving Trumbo, but not off of the year he just had. I did get asked about him, but considered him a guy who would bring more back at the deadline.
One thing I noticed in doing this is that it does not need to take five years to blow up and rebuild a team as long as a reasonable payroll is in place. Being proactive in shedding it is key too, and LaRussa did well with that in July. The Dbacks going from a 64 win team to a playoff team by 2016 (that’s two years) looks very viable to me. And at $120 million not $200 million. That number, $120 million, should be a no brainer for NYC.
I would say Alderson should have been taking notes, but the ship has already sailed, he (assisted, no make that led, by the Wilpon family) already destroyed close to half a decade.
Time frames matter, every year counts.