2015-16 Oakland Athletics

After being entrusted with the general manager duties of the Oakland Athletics for the 2015 version of the MLB Project, I took a close look at their 40 man roster and began to read about the previous season. A few things became prominent:

1. A culture change was needed. One of the statements made about the team was that it was undermined, somewhat, by a bad club house and bad chemistry.
2. Billy Butler’s contract was an albatross. It wasn’t just the money and commitment, but the fact that Butler caused roster issues that were difficult to resolve with him still on the team.
3. The Athletics are in rebuilding mode, but aren’t that far away.

So with these issues in mind, I started by doing the following:

Tendered contracts to:
Fernando Abad, Jesse Chavez, Fernando Rodriguez, A.J. Griffin, Jarrod Parker, Josh Reddick, Danny Valencia, Brett Lawrie, Drew Pomeranz, Evan Scribner and Eric Sogard

Non-Tendered:
Ike Davis, Felix Doubrant, Craig Gentry and Sam Fuld

The Athletics had a lot of arbitration eligible players. Most of the players that were tendered contracts were no-brainers. Scribner and Abad didn’t have strong seasons, but they were still very cheap players, had better peripheral numbers than their overall numbers portrayed and didn’t have easy replacements in the system, so they were kept.

The four non-tenders were pretty easy as all of them were making decent money for what amounted to minimal production.

With this done, it was time to turn to the trade front, where the Athletics were very active.

Trades:
Danny Valencia to the Rays for Matt Andriese

This deal was a product of my research and for monetary reasons. Valencia seemed to have the reputation of not being a strong clubhouse presence. With such a young baseball team (only to get younger as we’ll see) having a potential malcontent in the clubhouse who is a solidly productive, but not game changing baseball player, was not a good choice. This was an initial step in changing the culture of the team. Valencia was also set to make over 3 million dollars, so the trade saved money as well.

It wasn’t just a dump job either. Andriese is a solid young pitcher and was once ranked as a top 30 prospect in the Rays system. He will make an impact on the Athletics at the major league level as either a bullpen arm or a back of the rotation starter and is pre-arbitration eligible. At the moment, he is another arm that will be available from Triple-A at a moment’s notice.

Brett Lawrie, Drew Pomeranz and Billy Bulter to the Padres for James Shields, Alex Dickerson and Yagervis Solarte

This seems to go against the grain for the budget conscious Athletics, but it really doesn’t. This trade was initially proposed by the Padres GM, without Dickerson and Solarte’s inclusion. My response was that more was needed for me to take on the risk that was Shields. This offer though helped to deal with an issue that I felt was necessary for the team. With such a young staff, I wanted a veteran arm for the rotation. Shields has always been known as a solid teammate and smart pitcher and his contract isn’t as bad as it seems. Yes, he has a lot of mileage on his arm and is an older pitcher making 21 million dollars, but his contract has a player opt out after the 2016 season and this team isn’t winning anything this year, unless all of the cards fall perfectly in place. In essence, this is another contract year for Shields and he should be motivated to pitch well to potentially get that one more contract with a contending team.

There is obvious risk with Shields as he could look at his situation and opt in for the remainder of his contract, knowing he might not get that money back, but most of the players that have been given this option in recent years (C.C. Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez, Zack Greinke to name a few) all have chosen to take the opt out option. Unless Shields arm blows up this year or he is totally ineffective, the odds are that he’s opting out of this contract.

With that knowledge, this deal has to be considered a success for the Athletics. Unlike Shields, Butler doesn’t have an option and is under contract for 22 million dollars for the next two years. He is a subpar first baseman and not the hitter he once was. He can’t play any other position other than first base and I felt that this Oakland club needed as much flexibility as possible. Butler has also never been known for his clubhouse presence, so his movement to another roster clicks on all of the boxes needed to help this team move forward.

Lawrie is another one who had a bad reputation with the team. Not necessarily because his presence was negative, but because his hard-nosed competiveness seemed to rub people the wrong way. In addition, his play didn’t warrant the money he was receiving. Solarte provided basically the same level of production as Lawrie last year and was better in the field for about three million less in 2016. Lawrie has a ton of potential, but at what point do we all acknowledge that he might never reach it? It’s the Padres problem now.

Pomeranz is the only one that will truly be missed on the roster, but again, he was getting to the point of becoming expensive and there are enough left handers on the team to help buoy his absence. Dickerson is a solid prospect. He won’t be a game changer, but he could be a quality platoon player from the left side at left field or first base, is pre-arbitration eligible and really had no spot on the Padres.

Jesse Hahn to the Rangers for Mitch Moreland

This deal was the finalization of several days of negotiations with the Rangers. They started as an attempt by the Athletics to acquire Prince Fielder, with the idea that the offense could be built around his prodigious bat. The Rangers weren’t willing to move Fielder, but were interested in Hahn and the trade went through several iterations until we just agreed on a Hahn, Moreland swap.

The reasoning behind moving Hahn was injury related. Hahn has already had Tommy John surgery once and had forearm stiffness this year in his throwing arm. This is never a good sign and the Athletics have already dealt with the long term ramifications of pitchers who go through Tommy John surgery and have yet to come back healthy (Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin). Both of those pitchers have literally no trade value, and are still holding spots on the 40 man roster. Hahn just has that feel about him that he might not stay healthy over the long haul. This could be one that ends up back firing, especially if Moreland regresses from his career season last year, but it felt like the right decision to make.

First base was also a revolving door for the Athletics last year, and Moreland should be able to solidify it every day. He isn’t great versus lefties, but he’s not a total negative and he is more than solid defensively. The Athletics don’t have a ready to go first base prospect. One of their top prospects, Matt Olsen, has played first base in the past, but the Athletics are grooming him for right field. He’ll be at Triple-A this year with fellow top prospect Renato Nunez, who has been a poor fielding, big hitting third baseman who saw some time at first base last year. However, third base is also an issue, so Nunez is not exactly a lock to be the team’s future at first base. Rangel Ravelo, one of the prospects acquired from the White Sox for Jeff Samardzija last year, is tearing up the Arizona Fall League, but doesn’t appear to have the offensive chops to be an everyday first baseman in the big leagues. That’s basically it for that spot on the infield, so if Moreland impresses, he could be in for a contract extension. If the Athletics decide that one of those three, or a combination of big leaguers Mark Canha, Stephen Vogt, and minor leaguer Dickerson, can adequately man the position, Moreland will be a nice trade chip to move at the deadline to further fill the system.

Josh Reddick and Evan Scribner to the Blue Jays for Dalton Pompey, Sean Reid-Foley and Munenori Kawaski

I did not intend on trading Reddick when I started this project. Reddick was, for me, a player that when I wrote up this summary I was going to discuss as an extension candidate. However, the Blue Jays approached me about Reddick and I threw them a prospect offer that felt like a good haul for Reddick, considering he was in his last year of arbitration. When negotiations were completed, I had gotten the prospect haul I wanted and added a decent back up middle infielder in Kawasaki that allowed me to make another move later on, all while moving Reddick’s seven million dollar salary and a decent reliever in Scribner.

Pompey was a top 50 prospect in all of Baseball prior to the 2015 season. He still would be if not for the amount of playing time he received his rookie season. He is a five tool player with the chops to stick in center field. He’s also a switch hitter that has shown progress with his pitch recognition, leading to the conclusion that if he puts it all together, he’ll be a plus lead-off hitter in the big leagues with his elite speed. His numbers in his rookie season need to be taken with a grain of salt. He turns 23 in December and only had 183 plate appearances above A-Ball leading into the 2015 season. The Athletics are very lacking in outfield prospects at the higher levels of the system, which was part of the reason for moving Olsen to right field. Pompey, if he was still eligible for prospect status, would automatically be at least a top 10 prospect in the system and possibly a top five one.

The same goes for Reid-Foley, who immediately becomes a top seven prospect in the system, only behind Sean Manea as a pitching prospect. Although he probably isn’t going to affect the team until at least 2018, he is the type of power arm that isn’t prolific in the Athletics system. We’re talking about a plus plus fastball that he can reach back and punch up to 98 when necessary, a plus slider and developing change up and curve ball. His velocity alone, if he remains healthy, will lead to at a minimum a plus bullpen arm, but if he can continue to develop his secondary pitches and his control, Reid-Foley has got top of the rotation potential.

Eric Sogard to the Yankees for Chasen Shreve

Sogard was another player I didn’t have any intention of trading, but once Pomeranz and Scribner were dealt, and Kawasaki acquired, Sogard was redundant and I needed a reliever. Shreve was solid in the first half of 2015 and struggled in the second half, but it was his first full season in the big leagues and he’s only 25. I’m thinking he becomes a quality bullpen arm for the Athletics for several years to come and the trade saved me about a million dollars.

Free Agency

With all of the moves made, even adding Shields’ salary, the Athletics had plenty of room to add free agents. The methodology behind the free agents moves that were made were related to what I had determined was the state of the team:

1. The need for a change of culture.
2. The need for a bridge to the young talent moving through the system.

So, the following players were signed:

Marlon Byrd for 10 million dollars
Jonathan Broxton for 7 million dollars
Juan Uribe for 6 million dollars

Based upon the other bids noted for Uribe, Byrd and Broxton, those salaries represented significant over pays, but there was reasoning behind the perceived madness. All three of these players are veterans, with solid pedigrees and terrific club house presences. In addition, if we were looking at this from a realistic standpoint, all three of these players are towards the end of their careers and are probably looking at championships as a major decision maker in the teams they choose. To get them to come to Oakland to participate in a rebuild would need some sort of incentive, which would come in the terms of money and years on the contract.

For Uribe, who has won several championships, a one year, six million deal would probably get the job done. For Byrd and Broxton, however, the contracts would have to be full of dollars and years. A deal for one year with a mutual option for Broxton would probably get it done at a seven million dollar annual salary, but the Byrd contract would probably have to be two years guaranteed with a mutual option, as I doubt Byrd would accept a performance option after what happened with the Giants to close out 2015 (his plate appearances were restricted in order to avoid triggering his option).

Uribe’s contract makes him very tradable, which if he’s having a typical Uribe year, will lead to a similar trade that the Mets made with the Braves at the trade deadline in 2015. The same goes for Broxton, who has a lot of mileage on his arm, but is only 31 and still throws hard with a closer’s pedigree. A seven million mutual option for next year could net the Athletics a solid prospect in return at the deadline if necessary.

Byrd is different, but he’s necessary for this club. Young talent doesn’t always come to fruition, and Byrd has proven that he has power left in the tank and can still field his position. At the least, he will be a solid replacement for Reddick in 2016 and if Olsen develops as hoped in right field, will be a mentor, designated hitter and spot starter in the outfield as he moves towards the end of his career.

Although Byrd is probably the only one of these veterans that will make it out of 2016 on the Athletics, the youth on the team will benefit from the positivity and veteran knowledge of these players. I also signed Fernando Rodney and Trevor Cahill to spring training invites. Both players should make the team, Cahill as a fifth starter who could transition to the bullpen dependent on the progress of Arnold Leon and the Rule 5 player they pick up (which I will soon to discuss) and Rodney as a veteran bullpen arm that will be given one more shot at a roster at the age of 39 after being a quality contributor to the Cubs down the stretch.

Although we didn’t include Rule 5 picks for the reason that most 40 man rosters aren’t set yet, I firmly believe that this is a year in which the Athletics will follow up their successful selection of Canha last year with another Rule 5 pick this year. This one will more than likely be more of a risk than Cahna was as I would take a power arm out of the minors that they could sit in the bullpen all year and then stretch out as a starter at Triple-A in 2017. In doing some cursory research, an arm like right handers Colin Kleven from the Phillies and Rookie Davis from the Yankees or Left hander Frank Lopez from the Rangers, could fit this bill. It’s another way of further buoying the system with pitching in a year that they can get away with it as the expectations for the club will be low.

This is not a team that is five years away and needs that kind of a bridge. By the end of 2015, several top prospects could be impacting this roster on a regular level and the young players on the team could be finding their legs as the league adjusts to them. Depending on that development, this team could be one that surprises this year, but at the very least, is one that would be looked at as dangerous and young for next year. It would definitely be nice to be rebuilding around Sonny Gray and Josh Donaldson, but Billy Beane and company made the decision last year to not take that route. What they have now is a young baseball team with a lot of talent in the minors that could make this team a force akin to a mixture of the young players the Cubs (bats) and Mets (pitching) are putting out over the next few years.

Here’s the roster:
Pitchers:
Fernando Abad – 1.5 million
Jonathan Broxton – 7.0 million
Trevor Cahill – 1.0 million
Jesse Chavez – 4.7 million
Sean Doolittle – 1.58 million
Sonny Gray – 600,000
Arnold Leon – 510,000
Sean Nolin – 512,000
Fernando Rodney – 1.0 million
Fernando Rodriguez – 1.3 million
James Shields – 21 million
As Yet Unknown Rule 5 Pitcher – 510,000

Leon and Nolin make the team as they are out of options, Rodney and Cahill as veterans that can be easily replaced by a full Triple-A team if they are ineffective. Rodney and Leon would have the shortest leashes. Leon wasn’t effective last year and has been a disappointment as a prospect. This is his last shot at the roster and will be outrighted to the minors if he fails. Rodney is being given a shot based upon his success in Chicago, but if he repeats what was going on earlier in 2015 with Seattle, he will be gone quickly. Cahill could go early too, but he’s only 28 and can pitch in the rotation or out of the bullpen, so he probably has a little bit more time to figure things out. Aaron Brooks, Chris Bassitt, Kendall Graveman and Andriese will all make appearances with the Athletics at one point or another during the season. I fully expect Chavez to be traded. He’s in his final year of arbitration and will be a nice back end starter or bullpen arm at the trade deadline, which will again allow for some of the Triple-A pitchers to appear and further build up the minor league system. Shreve not making the roster is just a matter of time as he will be the first in line to replace Rodney or Leon if they fail.

So what about Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin? To start, I fully expect one to start on the disabled list. Both have had set backs and very slow recoveries from Tommy John surgery, with Parker having gone through a second procedure. If I had to guess, Parker will be placed on the DL to start the season and get some additional time in extended spring training. This will give the Athletics time to make decisions about some of their other pitchers and determine what kind of role Parker will fill. Griffin has three options remaining, so he will be slotted into the Triple-A staff to continue his recovery and could be a call up during the season if he stays healthy and is productive.

The bottom line is that this staff will look very differently by the time the year comes to a close. This season is proving time for this roster and the Athletics should have a much better feel for the team’s pitching, which appears to be a big time asset, by the time the year is done.

Position Players:

Billy Burns – 515,000
Marlon Byrd – 10 million
Mark Canha – 515,000
Coco Crisp – 11 million
Munenori Kawasaki – 510,000
Mitch Moreland – 5.6 million
Josh Phegley – 512,000
Marcus Semien – 515,000
Jake Smolinski – 512,000
Yagervis Solarte – 515,000
Juan Uribe – 6 million
Steven Vogt – 515,000
Joey Wendle – 510,000

Wendle is the only real surprise here. He needs to be protected from the Rule 5 draft and if he has a solid spring training, will be given the shot to play regularly at second base in what is also a proving ground season for the position players.

The way I see things is full of platooning and versatility. With the exception of right field, short stop and possibly center field, most of the other positions, including designated hitter, will be platoon oriented.

Third Base and second base will be shared by Wendle, Solarte, and Uribe. Early in the year, I see Solarte at second and Uribe at third against lefties and Wendle at second with Solarte at third against righties. By the time the trade deadline is looming, the Athletics should have a better feel for Wendle’s ability to play in the big leagues and potentially top prospect Nunez’s (big bat, no position) ability to play third base based upon his performance at Triple-A.

Left field will be a full platoon all year with Smolinski, Canha and Crisp all getting the opportunity to play. If one of that group isn’t effective or Crisp can’t stay healthy, expect Dickerson to be on the team. This could also be a position that Pompey appears at during the year.

Canha will be in the lineup regularly unless he goes through a sophomore slump. Expect him to get time in left, right, at first base and as a designated hitter (another reason Butler had to be moved). Moreland will get a shot to play every day at first base, so that the Athletics can decide whether to talk contract extension or trade him, but could very easily fall into a platoon if his can’t at least be mildly productive against lefties.

Semien will be given every opportunity to show that he can stick at shortstop defensively and Burns will be given the chance to prove that his bat is good enough to hit leadoff and play every day. If Burns reverts to what many thought he was, a solid forth outfield and speed man off of the bench, then it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pompey manning center field at some point during the year. If Semien continues to struggle defensively, he will get some time at second base and expect to see top prospect Chad Pinder in the majors to handle shortstop. Also, if Olsen mashes Triple-A, and proves to be solid in right field, he will make an appearance on the major league roster.

The most solid position on the team is catcher. Vogt and Phegley are both quality, pre-arbitration players, who can platoon at the position. They can defend the position well and hit with power. Vogt will see a lot of time at designated hitter as well and possibly first base if Moreland is traded. They could even revisit Vogt in the outfield, if necessary, to get his bat into the lineup.

All in all, it will be an interesting year for the Athletics. The roster I came up with will be very different by years end. Hopefully all of the building that Billy Beane has done over the last few years will make this team very interesting for the foreseeable future. For 2015 though, this is all about youth and development, as well as playing the game right.

Total Salary for 25 Man Roster: 78.433 million

15 remaining players on 40 man roster and one on DL to start season (Jarrod Parker): 8.504 million

Total Salary: 86.937 million (Cap 88 million)