Round two makes me re-think my rankings… at least if I were running the Mets like a GM simulation. Some players in this next bunch shine brightly but some also appear a bit dimmer than we may have hoped.
Michael Fulmer – OVR: 50 PEAK: 86 (Age 20)
What This Means: Fulmer pitched well enough in FSA to be an average pitcher in advanced A. People are excited about Fulmer, as they should be, but in the end I’m not sure he’s the 3rd best pitching prospect in the Met’s stable. He’s certainly good and certainly has a bright future but in the grand scheme of things there may be better people out there.
How I Got Here: Fulmer spent the entire year in FSA where the base average is 40 (making his 50 OVR all the more impressive and his peak is still a full 36 points higher but he’s got SO much to prove at higher levels before that peak becomes meaningful. He got a full 15 points to peak from both his level in the minors and his 1st rounder status.
Parting Thoughts: I would probably say that Fulmer might dive a few spots or move up depending on where he finishes 2013. The goal from most people will be to see him finish the year in AA but that might not be realistic.
Rafael Montero – OVR: 69 PEAK: 95 (Age 22)
What This Means: Whoah? Really? YEAH! Rafael Montero is one of the Met top prospects and probably deserves to be in the top 5 based on his 2012. Silly scouts might differ. The reason he did so well here is because he limited walks and hits to an EXTREME level, so this might get a little wonky in AA but he does seem to be on track to be a front-end pitcher (based on numbers).
How I Got Here: While most players so far got 15 points to their peak’s for being first rounders or top international signees, Montero wasn’t quite as hyped and only received 10 points. The scores were averaged and properly divided to account for his time between FSA and A+. (His OVR should have averaged around 48)
Parting Thoughts: Is Montero moving up on my list? Yes. How high? 4th? He’s still likely a tick behind Snydergaard but based on this math it’s hard for me to place him below Nimmo or Fulmer and it’s really close with Wilmer Flores. 2013 will be a defining year for Montero and could make things interesting for 2014 and beyond with the Mets.
Jeurys Familia – OVR: 70 PEAK: 88 (Age 23)
What This Means: Familia scores a 70 in AAA? Doesn’t that mean he’s an average AAA pitcher? Kind of… it also means that at 22 he was only a 70 in AAA. His overall will probably go up in 2013 and my guess is that he winds up as an 85 OVR MLB reliever. That’s good enough for a high-leverage reliever.
How I Got There: Familia’s numbers were pretty easy to run. He spent all of 2012 (at least the part in the minors, which is all I was looking at) in AAA. This means his numbers are averaged with a score of 70 and he leveled out some shaky numbers overall. His peak might be inflated but he was a hyped international signee so he got the 15 points for that on top of the 3 from his age.
Parting Thoughts: Should Familia falter in AAA again I’m not sure he’s going to have the luxury of staying another year in the Met fan’s mind as a prospect. Maybe I’m wrong.
Domingo Tapia – OVR: 57 PEAK: 92 (Age 21)
What This Means: Tapia is a scout’s dream. He’s a physically gifted player who can hurl. He’s struggled a little bit in the transition between thrower and pitcher but certainly better than Akeel Morris or Juan Urbina have. At 57 he’s proven he’s ready to succeed in Port St. Lucie and other than some fatigue issues I think it’s a safe bet that he’ll stay a starter for 2013. I’ve heard rumblings that he’s being groomed to close.
How I Got There: Tapia spent his year in FSA Savannah and pitched well though not as exceptionally as others who might be listed lower. His live arm earns him enough hype for a full 15 point bonus to his peak and his level and age account for the rest of the 35 point gap.
Parting Thoughts: I like Tapia and I think I’d list him as the #6 prospect behind Wheeler, Snydergaard, Montero, Fulmer and Familia. He’s still more risk than reward, but looking at him there is legitimate reason to expect more of the latter.
Gavin Cecchini – OVR: 28 PEAK: 70 (Age 19)
What This Means: Ouch! Talk about not being able to silence the critics. Look it’s easy to jump on Alderson on this one but it’s also premature to do so. Sure he had a mediocre start in rookie ball where he profiled at slightly BELOW average, but he’s going to be 19 in 2013 and can make strides as Nimmo did with another year in the pros.
How I Got There: The defensive stats were his only above the grade stats. He didn’t flunk out in anything, but he wasn’t an instant success. He got 42 points from his first rounder status, his league and his age.
Parting Thoughts: Look, he is hardly a finished project, but he’s also not exactly a shown a long history of anything. We should only get worried if he continues to struggle in the lower levels in 2013. The key, for me, is that he NEEDS to hold onto SS if he’s to have any long-term value. If he’s shifting to 2nd base I would argue that Phillip Evans and Danny Muno both look to have higher “pure bat” upsides.
As I continue to go through this It seems like some of the ordering is already shifting. For instance, Rafael Montero shifted above Wilmer Flores and so on. I’ll be publishing an ongoing chart of prospect OVR and Peak in an order that makes sense to me.