It’s true. Daniel Murphy just might be the most untradeable person on the Mets. For reasons that make absolutely no sense. Nobody but the Mets sees him as a long term answer at 2B. Many have argued (Joel Sherman of the New York post comes to mind) that he should be pushed as a super utility player, a “Ben Zobrist” type and not as a 2B. Matthew Cerrone on Metsblog.com today wrote about how he spoke with talent evaluators and they view him that way, or as “throw-in” as part of a bigger trade.
This is crazy.
So why is there a negative stigma around Murphy? Murphy is a legitimate all-star, and has had back to back seasons with an fWAR over 3.0. He’s not going to ever really hit for power, but he can hit doubles and every once in a while he’ll break out and hit 2 homers in a series. He’s a fantastic baserunner even without good speed. He had 23 steals last season and 13 this year. That’s 36 steals on 44 attempts, successful on 81% of his attempts. Nobody would say Murphy is fast, but anything over 80% in the stolen base world is fantastic. According to Fangraphs and BsR (combined baserunning stats like taking an extra base, tagging up, etc. and adding it to Weighted Stolen Base Runs [wSB]), in 2013 Murphy was the 8th best in all of baseball. That’s ahead of much “faster” guys like Adam Jones (9th), and just below Starling Marte (7th). If you combine 2013 and 2014 he ranks 11th overall.
His lack of power might have been a much bigger issue pre-2009, but he is a line drive hitter who can hit lots of doubles. 112 doubles over the past 3 seasons is nothing to sneeze at. The only 2B with more over the same time span are Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia. Only 5 2B have more RBIs (Cano, Phillips, Ian Kinsler, Pedroia and Jason Kipnis). He’ll continue to hit doubles no matter where he goes, a 24.4 LD% is 4th best among 2B in the last 3 seasons. His wRC+ is 10th best among qualified players.
Over the past 3 seasons, Murphy is 10th overall in fWAR with 7.5 among all MLB 2B. He has more fWAR than Brandon Phillips and Aaron Hill over that same span. In 2013 Aaron Hill signed a deal that was worth $35 million over 3 years. Brandon Phillips signed a six year deal worth $72.5 million in 2012. Heck, Dan Uggla got $50 million over 4 years. Why does it seem crazy to sign Murphy to a 3 or 4 year deal worth approximately $12 million per season? Is it because of his perceived lack of defense? If you’ve watched the Mets since Murphy became the everyday 2B, you can see an obvious improvement. During his first full season at 2B in 2012, his UZR was a disastrous -10.2. In 2013 and 2014, it’s nowhere near that, with a -4.9 UZR in 2013 and a -5.3 UZR this year. Yes, absolutely he is a negative fielder at 2B, but not all time bad. He’s about as bad as Aaron Hill, who has a UZR of -9.3 over the last 2 seasons, and Murphy has played about 700 more IP than Hill. His defense isn’t say, Mark Reynolds at 3B bad, or Adam Dunn anywhere bad, but it’s definitely below average. It’s nice to see that he took it seriously and did make a huge improvement from 2012 to 2013.
So what’s the holdup? Is Sandy asking for too much? I looked to try and see who was being offered up in trades involving Murphy, to no avail. I guess he believe he can get more value if he waits for the winter. Am I saying I think Murphy should be traded? Well, Murphy is definitely one of my favorite Mets, but I just don’t think he necessarily fits the Mets for the long term, and I absolutely believe Dilson Herrera is the future. He’s younger, faster and has a much higher ceiling than Murphy does. If the Mets are truly serious about contending in 2015, there might be no better time to flip Murphy when his value might be at his absolute highest. What happens if he struggles early next season, or gets hurt, and Herrera comes in and steals his job? He will have no value then. It’s a painful decision to make, but I think it’s one the Mets need to do.
Marc,
Since we don’t know what Sandy is asking for Murph, it’s hard to say how a trade would go down. If he is marketed as a “super-sub” what would another team give you for a player you are calling, in essence, a bench player? If the Mets don’t see him as a long-term answer at 2B, or any other position, might it not be the same way with another team?
It’s become trite to say that Murph might be of more value to the Mets than to others, but that just might be the case.
I agree with you on Herrera for the future, but if Murph can’t be traded for decent value, it wouldn’t be terrible to have Dilson polish his game at AAA (even if it is in LV).
Another point, regardless of the stats, I see Murph as an aggressive base runner who sometimes uses very poor judgement. The same lack of judgement is seen in his fielding. Murph has worked hard on his game, but sometimes he tries too hard to make a play.
But even though he is aggressive, the sabermetrics on his running paint him as probably the most underrated baserunner in all of baseball.
In no way do I think Murphy is a bench player. If I was a team that needed a 2B and had money to spend, I would absolutely trade for him. Teams like the Blue Jays, Giants, Oakland and Texas could use Murphy on a reasonable contract. Maybe he can increase his value by showing off he can play third base too. I still wouldn’t call him a super sub.
You praise Murphy and then you low ball him with a contract for 12 million per. I would definitely not want you to be my agent. His defense is what hurts his overall value. He’s adequate at best in fielding his position.Marc 80% for SB’s is not fantastic. It’s slightly above league average? 90% would be awesome. Better yet if he stole 40+ bases in a season now That would be fantastic. Albert Pujois stole almost 90% of his attempted steals this year. But you’ll say he only stole 5 bases this year. Murphy is going to be in the 60 million- 15 per year range. Unfortunately for our miserly owners Murphy is expendable and a luxury they cannot afford.
There is no way Murphy gets 15 million a year. Pedroia only got an avg contract value of 13.75 million. 15 million a year would tie Murphy with Ian Kinsler as the 2nd highest 2B contract of all time. Even at 12 million per year, thats still the 8th highest all time among 2B.
A career stolen base % over 80% would put Murphy in the top 40 all time. He does not have those kind of numbers for his entire career, but Rickey Henderson was successful on 81% as well.
How much do you think he’s going to get from arbitration this off season? If as you so well pointed out all his special attributes he brings to the table then certainly Murphy is in the 10-12 million dollar range next season. And if Murphy has another solid offensive season (why not?) Then maybe a team like the Yankees would give him that ridiculous amount you say he will not get. And with a right field porch like in Yankee Stadium Murphy could conceivably hit 25 home runs. Far fetched? Crazy? We’ll just have to wait and see.
Perhaps it will be Daniel Murphy who gets a fastball to the head to compensate for our young reliever’s “in your face” antics on the mound. Don’t count on Terry Collins to protect him:
“You’ve got to have some emotion in the game. We see it everywhere. I see other teams doing it. Others can get mad, I want these guys to have some fun. I don’t want to corral them and worry about every move they make. We’ll try to settle them down a little bit, but gosh, it’s a big win for us against a first-place team and there’s no reason not to be excited.”
I tend to look at BB ref, which has him at roughly 2 WAR; but it does place his OPS+ around 114. Fangraphs, for what its worth, places him around 10% better than the average ball player (wRC+).
OPS+ and wRC+ seem to agree, and WAR don’t, so let’s work with that; he’s somewhere around 10% better than league average.
When you sort other 2B by those types of stats, he’s in the lower half to lower third. Place his numbers among 3B, it’s not like he’s a leader there either.
Seems like his salary is going to be really close to $11-12MM, so its not like he’s screaming a dollar cost average either. B-ref’s last three years show a 1.8 average WAR, and at just under a league average of $6MM per WAR, that means he has *no residual value*.
Happy to hear where I’m wrong on this, but it seems like the goal was to build a case around Murphy’s value and ignore anything that contradicted that.
When I sort MLB 2B by wRC+ — Daniel Murphy ranks 4th.
When I sort MLB 2B by OPS+ — Daniel Murphy ranks 4th.
When I sort MLB 2B by wOBA — Daniel Murphy ranks 5th.
When I sort MLB 2B by BsR — Daniel Murphy ranks 7th.
I’m not sure how you could look at that and come to a conclusion other than that Murphy offensively is in the top third of 2B in MLB.
He has a 3.2 fWAR and with a unit of fWAR being valued around $5.4 million — Murphy is providing $16.2 million of value. If he’s getting paid $11-$12 million, he’s providing plenty of excess value for a player in his situation.
You keep saying that you prefer rWAR without ever saying why. I’ll tell you that I prefer fWAR because rWAR’s defensive element is not using a large enough sample. UZR uses multi-year samples while DRS uses yearly rates. DRS also uses many more zones, which seems like a good idea at first but then you are again lowering the sample size. You shouldn’t use fewer years of data and smaller zones.
I don’t think you’ll see me using WAR in anything less than multiple year references. This is to hopefully moderate what I believe is one of the most dangerous statistics in baseball, because it attempts to quantify something I believe is unquantifiable – and that’s defense. So to me, saying that one measurement is better than another is sort of silly, especially since we are looking at multiple years.
That said, you are clearly taking one year out of context. Daniel Murphy’s f-WAR is 7.5 over the last three years – an average of 2.5. His b-WAR average over the same period is 1.8. If you grab his three year averages (OPS, SLG, etc) from BB REF, and compare them to this year there is hardly an outlier.
So if you think another GM is going to jumping to make a deal at $12-14MM for somewhere between 1.8 and 2.5 WAR, good for you. It implies that he would have to give up something of value to acquire around .5 WAR. All of baseball is telling you that you are wrong. No one thinks there is any hidden upside or talent to the guy.
Finally … His wRC+ is 109 from 2012-2014. His OPS+ (bbref) is 114. He is clearly a little more than 10% better than the average player. Since 2012, there have been 16 2B that have played roughly the same amount of games as Daniel (1500 AB+). Dan is 9th in WAR, 11th in wOBA, and 8th in wRC+. OK. Not the bottom third.
You quote numbers that would have us believe that you think he’s the 4th best 2B in baseball. I know that isn’t the case. The thing is, another team is going to have to part with talent to acquire Dan and in all likelihood, they are not getting a salary value, and the possibly not a huge increase in productivity over what they have.
If you don’t think defense is quantifiable you shouldn’t use any version of WAR.
Increasing the sample of a less-than-ideally calculated number is not going to increase its accuracy, especially if the error is in the same direction each year. If anything, it will compound the error.
I understand that three years is a standard way to look at something but assigning each year the same value is not. In predicting future results, more recent results are more valuable than ones that happened years ago. Projection systems that use three-years of data feature a weighted system, where a 5/3/1 weighting is typical. Using 2012-2014 Murphy, that gives us 26.4 / 9 = 2.9 fWAR value for Murphy.
Ultimately, I don’t care what other people value Murphy at – only that our club values him appropriately. If Sandy Alderson values him as a 3-WAR player and every other GM in baseball values him as a 1-WAR player, the only rational thing to do is keep him. It’s no different than the d’Backs asking for Syndergaard for Didi Gregorius. The only rational thing to do is say no.
Just because no other club meets Alderson’s asking price does not mean that Alderson valued the player wrong. Everyone is trying to make a deal and pay the least amount possible. That’s how it should be. Negotiating is a key skill for a GM and I don’t want ours caving in and selling a guy for half of what’s he’s worth. There may come a time where I’m okay for overpaying for what we need but generally speaking, I’m not there yet with the 2014 Mets.
The Mets don’t have to trade Murphy. It’s possible that dealing Murphy will improve the team and that’s why Alderson should be seeing what he can get if he was to deal him. But he’s in a position of strength, not weakness, and he should act accordingly.
I don’t have complete confidence in WAR, and if you have half a brain you shouldn’t either because it attempts to include something that has not been shown to be quantifiable by anyone, which is defense.
Saying I shouldn’t use it at all because I don’t have complete confidence is absurd. I use WAR almost in every situation as a compliment to other measures.
Regarding which WAR is best, Dave Cameron wrote in 2013 that a major difference between the two lies in what is perceived as replacement level. Oddly he mentions nothing about defense. Sean Forman says, and I believe that the people at Fangraphs would agree, that the numbers themselves are in fact irrelevant and what is important is the ranking that they provide. In which case, we get back to this salient point:
Daniel Murphy is not, as your point before last would have others believe, anywhere near the top four in production as a player. He is an above average player where a great many other players are roughly in his league, and other teams already having such a player would be hard pressed to give up value to acquire him.
FG and B-R got together and agreed on a consistent replacement level between the two versions so that’s no longer the case.
I thought it was obvious that the numbers I provided were just looking at the offensive side of things. Once we include defense he falls out of the top 5 of the position. How far he falls depends on which system you use.
Brian what would be an acceptable trade in your mind for Murphy? And can the Mets afford him financially? Considering that 54 million is already committed to next season. Gee will get 4 million and Duda may get his salary doubled to 3 million. Parnell comes back at 3.7 and Murphy may get to 8 million+. That’s 72 million for only 8 players and you know the Mets are not going to sign any quality free agents this off season to fill their need for a corner outfielder.or SS. The Mets need to clear some salary to make room for Murphy.
If the Mets trade Murphy, either alone or as part of a package, they need to get a 3-win player at either SS or LF. I’d be disappointed if they traded him for a prospect who wasn’t ready to contribute at the start of the 2015 season.
Brian,
Any trade for Murphy will probably involve components that will lower the Mets’ payroll. That is the primary factor for management. Getting “a 3-win player at either SS or LF” is a secondary consideration for ownership. Too bad.
Like I said in the Wilpon’s article, murph is the classic Mets fan overvalue. We love Murph. He’s grit and hard play. He’s a guy we can count on to get a hit. “Imwith28” as much as anyone else…but objective assessment is critical.
That he is anomalous on the Mets tells us more about the Mets than Murph. How can talent evaluators everywhere else be wrong after seeing Murphs collective body of work? And Mets fans see him as a core part of the answer. We have gotten so used to eating the slop and gruel that the Wilpon’s s are serving, that we don’t don’t know what filet mignon is anymore. Murph as an all star is a tad of a stretch: he’s was the Mets mandatory player. Let’s not go overboard. Also he’s a singles and doubles slap hitter, not Tony Gwynn. That you mentioned Murph in the same breath as Ricky Henderson is barely short of shocking, and shows the extent of the lack of objectivity in assessing Murph. Really, Brandon Phillips? Have you counted the combined offense and the gold gloves? Murph is a catastrophe in the field. It’s easy to imagine two runs scoring in a playoff game when a grounder goes through the wickets at a critical time…in October that matters, huge. Given everything I wouldn’t extend him for 4 years, nor would I pay him more than 7-8 M$. He probably would get an upper mid level prospect in trade, and we should be happy to get that.
How bad are the Mets if their only All-Star player is no more than a bench player on any other team?
Trade anyone and everyone that you can get more value than they are worth. Everyone and anyone!! Sadly, that’s the only to rebuild without money.
or
Sell the team!
Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words in your post, as that is a violation of our Comment Policy.
Could it be that Daniel Murphy—at least at the plate—will be Jeff Kent’s equal in the next four or five years? To age 29, their batting stats are about the same.
I’m a big Murphy fan and I have to say there’s no way he’ll be Jeff Kent’s equal. At age 29, Kent hit 29 HR and the following year his wOBA jumped 50 points to .387 — there’s no way Murphy touches either of those numbers.
HR is one stat. How about Kent’s OPS+ of 105 at age 29, with Murphy’s at 119 now? Here’s hoping that Murph’s numbers jumps at age 30, as did Kent’s! If they improve somewhat, along with his fielding, he’ll be well worth keeping…..
Murphy does not have to improve to be worth keeping. He could regress and still easily be among the top half of 2B in baseball.
The issue with Kent’s HR was that pitchers had to treat him differently. The HR were a leading indicator for his overall performance. Murphy’s got nothing in his stat line that says pitchers are going to have to treat him differently and that we should expect a massive increase in his offensive output.
That depends where Murphy gets traded. How about Chicago? Maybe the Yankees sign him as a FA?I can see Murphy hitting 25 home runs in Wrigley Field or Yankee Stadium. By the way it doesn’t hurt to have Barry Bonds batting behind you for how many years?. Pitchers are more apt to throw you a fast ball than put you on base via a walk..
For the most part, Bonds hit third and Kent hit fourth.
True enough. And I recall J.T. Snow batting behind Kent for a number of years.
I agree that Murphy could hit more homers in other parks. In fact, his away slugging percentage has been significantly higher than his home SLG this year and last.
Chicago has a pile of infielders all with real ceilings. He’s never going there. I hoped that SF would have made a real bid, but it appears Panik is doing incredible.
I dont want to get into stats, or salary or anything. I just want to sit back and look at the team how it is. Murphy is literally the only player on the team that anytime in the season he’s up, we could count on a hit. He has been the only consistent player on the team, and if he chooses to stay with the mets, i think he should be given that chance. If he gives up the oppurtunity to go to a contender to stay, and help us, and help mentor the younger guys with his grittyness and his workethic, he has earned that. He is the workingmans player, he is like the posterchild new yorker. He is a hard working man, who isnt overly gifted individually, but works his butt off to produce. He deserves to be a met for life if he wants to be, and having his bat in the middle of our lineup wouldnt hurt one bit. Again thats just my oppinion.
Murphy will be a free agent in 2016 so he should have his most trade value between now and spring of 2015. Murphy should only be traded this winter for major league talent to improve a weaker position. A July deadline trade would only bring in prospects The Mets can’t allow him to walk away without compensation as a free agent at the end of 2015..Right now Murphy should not be an extension candidate based on the estimated 4 year $45-48M price. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/06/examining-a-potential-daniel-murphy-extension.html
I Iike Dan Murphy a lot but he is playing a position that the Mets have depth in and he is a valuable trade chip. He will bring back more than Flores or Herrera in a trade. The dollar savings at his position could be applied to another position. Trading Murphy is strictly a business decision.
Murphy may not have much trade value individually based on this http://metsblog.com/metsblog/what-is-daniel-murphys-value-on-the-trade-market/
but I logically don’t believe the article because so many major league second baseman have poor OPS.
The Mets would need to package him with a pitcher that has salary in 2015 (Colon, Niese, or Gee in order to fit the budget) for a corner outfielder or shortstop that is a better hitter than Murphy. The problem is that Herrera or Mazzilli may not be ready and the season may start with Campbell or Flores at second base.
Strange to hear so much praise (“legitimate All Star…Great Baserunner…etc) about a guy who you’re dying to trade!!!
He’s a legitimate MLB Hitter…a nice hitter. The baserunning is bad…forget about the sb’s, he has bad instincts and judgement. David Wright noted that “sometimes Murph thinks he’s invisible on the bases”, talking about some of his numb skull running.
The fielding?—just yesterday the TV crew was lauding “the difference” that Herrera makes at 2b—and he’s raw!
Murphy is a Major Leaguer—he should get paid. Maybe he has some value.
Murphy is an offensive second sacker that can be even better in the right situation. Since he became a regular and has played a full year, Murphy has not had a good lead off hitter in front of him or a good SS next to him. The best trading partners for Murphy would be Milwaukee, San Francisco, Baltimore, Toronto, Yuckees, or Tampa. The Mets should get some decent offers for Murphy, but to use a quote from another GM, better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late. Waiting til the trading deadline would cutting it too close. I’d take the best offer right now.
If Herrara is really ready, I let Murphy walk. The $8-10mil he’ll get in arbitration can be put to better use. I believe they can probably get a prospect for him, but the real value the Mets will get for him is in the player they will choose to invest the $10 mil they’re going to save on Murph.
You don’t let a guy like Murphy walk. After 2015 the Mets can extend him a qualifying offer and hopefully recoup a draft pick.
Murh would be insane not to take the QO if it gets to that. Hes now seen Drew and Cruz and knows full well, unless you are a top FA, teams are not likely to invest tons of money. In a single season with a QO, Murph and his family and heirs are set for generations, as that value would be 15-16 M$. I cant see any reason for the Mets to be into an average second baseman (with wild offense/defense splits) for 3/36 to 4/40. Murph will want years, and there is no way I give them. Remember, in baseball, its about the name on the front, not the name on the back: ask Yoenis Cespedes, John Lester, Jeff Samardzija etc.
You mean the same way the Mets decided to invest 60 million dollars for LFer with a poor OBP, and a poor batting average? Surely if the Mets are considered one of those inept teams who stumble along then we can find one more idiot GM out there willing to spend their television money. He’ll fit nicely in Yankees.
You know I looked it up and you’re right Brian. My mistake. Foggy memory.
With so many teams having injured stars having surgery this year and during the off season, we’ll just have to wait and see to make an assessment on who is available.