A most polarizing figure in the Mets’ blogosphere is 23-year-old Wilmer Flores. If you are a Mets fan you undoubtedly have an opinion about him and it’s likely a strong one.
The dividing line between the Flores factions is the question of whether his bat is potent enough to make up for a questionable (to be kind) glove.
Quantifying offense these days has been very good for years. Most of us have thrown away batting average as a reliable stat and depend a lot on On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage to get a true feel for how well a player hits. A stat many, including this writer, rely on is called OPS which is the sum of those two percentages. Personally I prefer to get rid of the decimal point by multiplying the result by 1000. But we all understand that a 750 OPS is the same as saying that the OBP + the SLUG% is .750.
One thing wrong with OPS is that it values OBP and Slugging as equal. Modern theory holds that the on base aspect is somewhat more important than the slugging aspect. If you had two fine hitters with an OPS of 800 who would you prefer on your team?
The guy who has an OBP of .280 and slugs .520 or the guy whose on base is .340 while he slugs .460? The guy who gets on more often would seem to be the more potent hitter.
There have been attempts to change the weight given to each aspect of the equation. An article I read 11 years ago – gee, maybe I should have kept it – suggested that weighted OPS should be 1.6 times OBP + slugging. I used that for a while but realized it pushed everyone’s number up by about 21%. To normalize it I multiplied the suggested formula by 0.79 and came back to numbers that look like regular OPS but adjusted giving extra weight to getting on base.
A few days ago I pulled up a list at ESPN which shows the top 21 shortstops in the majors. The filter was qualifiers for the batting crown, i.e. 3.1 plate appearances for each of the player’s team’s games.
As you see in this graphic Wilmer Flores is 9th when the table is sorted by OPS and 11th if we sorted it by weighted OPS. I suspect the teams that are not represented probably are scuffling at short, mixing and matching at the position and likely would all fall into the range of 22nd to 30th if we tried to include all teams.
Let’s generalize then and say that offensively Wilmer Flores is in the top third of shortstops offensively. More specifically we could say he is the bottom of the top third even though that’s splitting hairs.
Defense is harder to quantify. There are lots of stats that attempt to quantify but there is nothing that we can all agree tells the story numerically of how good a defender a player is.
No observer would ever see Flores as a Gold Glove candidate and it’s doubtful anyone could make the case that he is an above average defender. The most pro-Wilmer group will call him average in defense and the scale runs from there through below average to where I stand calling him atrocious defensively.
If he’s not the worst defensive shortstop in the game today I can’t see how he can not be in the bottom three. Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and say he’s the 28th “best” defensive shortstop. If he’s about the 10th best offensively by OPS then you only need to decide how important offense is compared to defense. I would submit that at the crucial defensive position of shortstop defense is more important than offense. But let’s split the difference and say that they are equal. The 10th best offense (remember that in OPS he was 9th and weighted OPS 11th) and 28th best defense makes for the 19th best overall shortstop in the game. That is bad but not disgraceful.
Going back to the graphic it is interesting to see the names of so many of the shortstops that have been linked to the Mets. Tulowitzki in what looks like an off season for himself is still way up there and you know he plays a gold glove caliber defense. Peralta (not connected in any trade rumors to NY) has always been a bat-first shortstop so comparisons of Flores to Jhonny are a natural.
Brad Miller is the player I had hoped Alderson would bring back in trade. His bat is modestly better than Flores’ and while he is not a great defender he does have more range than Wilmer has.
Segura and Castro fall below Flores in offense but both likely would be better overall because of their defensive skills.
Two names that have been connected in trade rumors are Ian Desmond and Alexei Ramirez (my strat-o-matic league members must chuckle here since Alexei has been my team’s shortstop for years). The Mets would have had to part with one or more top prospects to get Desmond in the offseason. How glad are we that that never happened?
There have been rumors of some interest in Alexei Ramirez and given the season he is having it is hard to make the case that he would be an upgrade on Flores.
I depend on Larry, Brian and the other fine writers here at Mets 360 to inform me of the statistical viewpoint on players.
Since I’m not a stat guy I depend on my eyes (which are not always without bias) to help evaluate guys.
With Wilmer Flores I see the following:
His gloves is okay, not great.
His arm, while reasonably strong, is somewhat erratic and is betrayed by…..
His feet, which are s-l-o-w hamper him in getting to the ball, but also in moving his body to get in the proper position to make accurate throws or in getting through the motions of making the DP and even ordinary plays quickly.
His body seems rather stiff.
His bat is quick and he turns on inside pitches rather well. Otherwise his hitting is quite ordinary with some pop. This is the one area where I think, because of his age, that he may get better. He does not get many walks.
Barring injury, Flores will probably be the Mets SS for this year. I’m hoping that a better solution will be found for the future.
I think your assessment is pretty much spot on. It is no great advantage at shortstop to have an OK glove if you don’t have the quickness and fluidity to get to balls that other shortstops get to.
I fear you are right and that we are stuck with him for the year. It is a puzzler that the seemingly smart front office is willing to put such a range deficient player at such a crucial position.
Larry, your article and presentation was very good. I love the title. Thanks.
Flores is a better starting shortstop then Tejada but when Tejada plays with Flores then Tejada should be the shortstop and Flores should be either at second or third. I find it ironic that a team that uses defensive metrics and shifts does not put their best fielders at their best defensive positions.
I have accepted Flores as the SS because he has the 9th best OPS and think that there are teams with 21 worst offensive shortstops. Flores has an rdrs/yr of
-11 which is pretty bad for a shortstop.
You then mentioned Brad Miller, who has an OPS+ of 105 compared to Flores 90.
He also has a rdrs/yr of -1. Miller is the better shortstop.
If the Mets want to get a difference maker, then Tulo is still the answer. Tulo added to the lineup, is superior offensively and defensively to any other shortstop. It would take some young pitching to get him. Having Tulo would make Niese a winning pitcher though.
I accept Flores but the Mets would be better with either Miller or Tulo at SS.
Surely Tulo would be a difference maker but one has to say whether they are willing to pay a price that includes Matz or Syndegaard plus some other good stuff to get him. I think many would not plus his salary would really change the dynamic in Flushing. The Wilpons just don’t seem willing to add significant payroll. Even if the Rockies pitch in some I still think Tulo is a longshot.
As a Mets fan, I personally like Wilmer Flores and root for him. He’s impressed me in many ways. And like norme says, I think there’s reason to believe that the bat will improve over time.
I don’t believe he’s a SS, however.
The grand experiment that defense doesn’t matter is bogus.
It is a crime by the Mets GM that this is so, but stinkin’ Ruben Tejada — who has been a borderline disgrace as a half-hearted player for years — should play SS everyday for the NY Mets.
Murphy needs to be on the field, at 3B or 2B. Then the club can decide what to do with Herrera/Flores for 2015.
Again, this is not so much a recommendation for Ruben Tejada, but an indictment of a semiretired GM who has completely and utterly failed to bring in a reasonable option at SS during his 5 years on the job. Unless you count Omar Quintanilla.
Wilmer can’t move. He doesn’t get to anything, ever. And yes, there are games and stretches where it doesn’t effect the outcome. It sort of doesn’t matter for two weeks at a time. But then it does.
Right now, I see the Mets as “improved.” I predicted 87 wins, figuring that was not going to get them to Game 163, but that it would be 1) Met with praise and “wait till next year” from the blogosphere and 2) Mets with joy by the ownership and GM, because it was “mission accomplished.” Meaningful games in September.
Can this team win and make the playoffs? Yes, it can. That’s all they’ve ever wanted. That thin sliver of a chance. Nelson Doubleday dreamed of excellence and baseball glory. These owners don’t give a crap about any of that.
James you forgot 3) Collins is back as manager because he “guided ” the team with so many injuries to meaningful games in September.
Funny how Gil Hodges never played Harrelson at short with Garrett at second and Boswell at short. I wonder why not?
They’re in first place with Wilmer playing shortstop. Enough said!
They’re liable to be in 3rd by the time the weekend is over.
Noticed that today. Quite sad.
Also last night was another game where having Tovar on the roster as a late inning defensive replacement could have led to a win, as well as saved some pitchers. There have been others.
Imagine how good this team could be if Bill James had written about the importance of defense back before any of our non-Bartolo players were born? Or if Sandy had read anything since those old abstracts came down from the mount?
A lot of teams have changed/brought up their top prospect SS and A bunch don’t qualify due to injuries and such, a good majority are better than Flores
Indians called up Francisco Lindor
Astros called up Carlos Correa.
Both are better than Flores
Nick Ahmed, Jose Iglesias, Jose Reyes don’t have enough PA but are probably better than Flores.
Danny Santana, Jordy Mercer, Alexei Amarista, Jose Ramirez, Marwin Gonzalez don’t have enough PA and are probably worse than Flores.
Jed Lowrie, JJ Hardy are hurt and probably better than Flores
And then there are some guys who can play SS but aren’t due to another SS presence .
Ryan Goins, Addison Russell, Ruben Tejada (yes him) are just to name a few, and there are likely many more.
This is crude, but I think a comprehensive analysis would show that there are at least 30 better SS than Flores
My modest proposal: If Lagares goes down, move Wilmer to CF where he’ll quickly become one of the best-hitting CFers in the game.
Turn a traditionally defensive position into an offensive asset.
Reinvent the game of baseball!
JP
James I don’t think you appreciate how horribly slow a runner Wilmer is. One would never put a player as slow as him in the outfield, let alone CF where you want your speediest outfielder to cover as much ground as possible.
If Wilmer has a major league future at all it will be at 3B or 2B in all probability and he figures to be below average at either of those places.
To quantify a player’s running speed the Strat-O-Matic game rates each player from 8 (absolute slowest, think Ramon Casto) to 17 (think Billy Hamilton). Flores was rated a 10 which is quite slow. Another Met rated 10 is Lucas Duda. Putting Wilmer in CF would likely be as effective as putting Duda in CF. Shudder even to think of it.
Whenever someone calls it a “modest proposal” you shouldn’t take it at face value…
Yeah, satire. The reasoning that suggests Flores at CF is similar to the mindset that places him at SS.
I’m not the biggest Granderson fan but I have to feel you guys are a little too hard on him.Slumps happen,they sometimes last a month.Let’s wait and see.
Excellent post Larry.
Isn’t Castro on pace to have 30-35 errors this season? Isn’t he leading the NL in errors? Wilmer unfortunately is a DH without the power numbers. You can’t “hide” him. Maybe when Wright retires you move him over to third base? He’s only 23. He’s probably going to give the Met’s 20 home runs and 75 R.B.I.’s. I’ll take that from SS if Herrera plays second base and Murphy 3rd for the rest of the season (Wirght doesn’t come back) and have Tejada as your defensive replacement and occasional starter at 3rd,2nd and SS.
This is what the teams gets when they originally took this position away from him years ago then reintroduced him to it. If he had stayed and learned SS then, maybe it wouldn’t be a problem, or as big of one at least. But forcing him back into this position is the fault of the overseers, not Flores.
We differ quite a bit on this.
I admire and respect those in the organization who a few years ago determined that Wilmer was too ponderously slow to ever make it in the majors as a shortstop. They never tried him in the outfield for a similar reason. The feeling then was that if he had a major league future at all it would have to be a 1b, 2b, or 3b.
He was forced back to shortstop last year because Tejada was hitting absolutely nothing and they felt they had no alternative.
I think the correct call was made when they took him off short and I’ve never wavered in my contention that he lacks the range to play SS at the major league level.
So what happens next season Larry when Flores is named the starting SS?
I find that notion inconceivable. Perhaps it’s possible since they’ve gone this far with Flores at SS hoax. But I think the tide is turning as even people like John Harper are writing articles about the necessity of getting Wilmer off shortstop.
If they try it again next year I’ll write and Tweet continuously about how stupid they are. Heck, even if they get themselves a SS I’ll find plenty of reasons to call them out.
But Larry the team already knew that SS was not a good idea. there’s no plan in place. If SA had seen enough of Tejada at SS why not have Flores play SS in winter ball last year? There’s so many things wrong with the decision making on so many levels here. No back up plans. No anticipation. Just knee-jerk reactions. . Why else move him to another position while he was in the minors? O
But Larry the team already knew that SS was not a good idea. There’s no plan in place. If SA had seen enough of Tejada at SS why not have Flores play SS in winter ball last year? There’s so many things wrong with the decision making on so many levels here. No back up plans. No anticipation. Just knee-jerk reactions. . Why else move him to another position while he was in the minors? Obviously looking for a home for him. If you’re not going to trade for Tulo then whomever you bring in needs to be a true SS. Middle defense wins games and eliminates the domino effect in pitches thrown(no 4 out innings) and use of your bull pen..