As we approach the 2016 winter meetings, plenty has been written about what the Mets should do for 2017. Let’s take it a step further and look further into a crystal ball at 2018.
As the 2017 season ends, the contracts of several Mets will expire as follows.
Jose Reyes $ 22.0 million 2018 club option or $ 4.0 million buyout
Neil Walker $ 17.2 million
Curtis Granderson $ 15.0 million
Jay Bruce $ 13.0 million
Asdrubal Cabrera $ 8.2 million 2018 club option or $ 2.0 million buyout
Lucas Duda $ 6.7 million (arbitration eligible 2017)
Addison Reed $ 5.3 million (arbitration eligible 2017)
Grand Total $ 87.4 million
That is a large sum of money coming off the books. It also puts the current hot stove and free agents in a different perspective. Some of the contracts appear to be no brainers. Pay the buyout on Jose Reyes, let Bruce, Duda and Granderson walk. That opens up $ 56.7 million. Walker will be looking for a 3 year deal at a lower salary than he earned in 2017, so let him walk too. That saves $ 17.2 million more.
That leaves Cabrera and Reed. Cabrera is a valuable asset because he can play shortstop or second base. Cabrera may be able to also fill in at third as well. Execute the 2018 team option on Cabrera for $ 8.2 million. That is a bargain compared to Walker’s $ 17.2 million from the qualifying offer this year.
If Reed has another solid year in 2017, he will no doubt hit the open market in search of a three or four year contract. With Chapman, Jansen and Melancon going off of the market, it is good timing for Reed himself to hit the market. At 29, Reed will get a great contact slightly below what the big three from this year will get. The Mets should look for more a value reliever at a lower salary compared to what Reed will get, but a lot of that hinges on how much time Jeurys Familia misses in 2017 due to suspension because of his domestic assault situation.
Offer no qualifying offers. So, now that the roster has been radically altered, how do the Mets put the team together for 2018? Assuming that the Mets sign Yoenis Cespedes, he will play left field and Michael Conforto will play right field. The Mets still need a good CF, first baseman and let’s be honest, after another injury filled season in 2017 by Travis d’Arnaud, it will be time to look for a new catcher as well.
Two rookies will man the middle of the infield. After another season of seasoning in the minors, the dynamic duo of Amed Rosario and Gavin Cecchini will be ready for the show. Rosario will play shortstop and Cecchini who will hopefully make improvements on his defense will play second base. Dominic Smith may be ready to play first base, but it would be very hard to go into a season with three rookies playing in the infield.
The Mets should sign Jonathan Lucroy to catch. He will add a solid veteran bat to the lineup. At first base, the Mets should add a veteran first baseman to platoon with Smith. Sign John Jaso. Jaso would provide the Mets a good option to play first base in addition to Smith at a very reasonable price. He could also do some catching and play the outfield as well. The Mets should look to conserve money here because the big bonanza of free agents comes after the 2018 season. Manny Machado would look awfully good in a Mets uniform. Sign Lorenzo Cain to play center field. Lucroy will demand the most money, but Jaso and Cain both could be signed for a fairly reasonable price and leave some room for going after Machado after the 2018 season.
The lineup will look like this.
1. Cain CF
2. Rosario SS
3. Cespedes LF
4. Lucroy C
5. Conforto RF
6. Jaso/Smith 1B
7. Wright 3B
8. Cecchini 2B
These would be good moves for the Mets to make, especially since Matt Harvey’s contract expires after the 2018 season. Even without Harvey, the Mets should still have Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler.
Looking into the crystal ball into the 2018 season leaves us with a different perspective on what to do for the 2017 season. Since Familia is a question mark, and Reed may be leaving after 2017, the bullpen should be addressed now.
The Mets should have some live young arms come up including Thomas Szapucki and Justin Dunn, but adding a great reliever who is under contract is crucial. If the Mets sign Cespedes, rather than let Bruce walk, trade him for a reliever. Toronto wants Bruce, so build a great package to go after Roberto Osuna. Osuna is signed through 2020. Osuna would cost a lot, but he would be worth it.
The crystal ball is starting to fade, more to come.
So many questions…
Why are we looking at the 2018 season before we’ve gotten into the guts of the current offseason?
Why are we platooning Dominic Smith, who has shown little reason to suggest he’s got a weakness against one type of pitcher?
How can we assume that Cespedes comes back?
Why are we penciling in David Wright as a starter?
Why do we assume that Machado will ever be available?
Why?
Why not
Because it’s pointless to look that far ahead. All you can do is offer uniformed speculation. Is that what you want to be known as – Uninformed Speculation Guy?
Seriously, if this is the best you can do, don’t quit your day job.
It is not pointless to look that far ahead at all. Looking that far ahead provides some valuable insight for today. Most businesses look out beyond a year.
Then how come no one is coming out in support of this piece saying great article or anything like that? The only comments have been negative.
If you ran a poll and 100 people responded, 98 of them would vote pointless.
Freddy, if you dont like it, then dont read it.
Okay, I give. What “valuable insight” did we gain by speculating this far down the road of unknowables?
It’s just a list of maybes and might be’s and wild guesses.
Of course it’s reasonable to look at the Mets in 2018, not to mention 2019 and 2020.
Every GM worth his salt has charts suggesting where the team will be strong and where it will be weak; where he should be looking to fill in, and where he might be solid for five years.
“We have two strong 2B prospects, at A and AA, and a FA coming off the books in 2 years? That means we’re more set at 2B than in CF so, given that, we’ll be leaning towards picking up a CFer rather than an MI with our first round draft pick…”
Anyone who can’t deal with that kind of straightforward thinking shouldn’t be whining at people who can. Keep up the good work, Mike.
Do you really want three rookies starting in the infield without some veterans behind them.
Gavin Cecchini – Will see significant playing time in the majors and will likely lose his rookie eligibility in 2016.
Amed Rosario – Will see significant action in the majors should Asdrubal Cabrera get hurt in 2016.
Dominic Smith – Will see an opportunity to start in the majors should Lucas Duda be injured or the platoon of Flores/Duda lack production.
The Mets have Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera and Matt Reynolds on the roster to back up the infield.
When you don’t know what will happen in 2017, you cannot begin to predict the happenings of 2018.
I’m a minor league guy and am certainly thinking about 2018, 19 and 20 but you cannot look at a major league roster and truly think about a year that is over a season away.
Cannot count Reyes money as coming off books when only 500k is on Mets books…
Also a good point
1. Let’s enjoy (hopefully) 2017 first.
2. It would appear that 2018 will be the year that the starting line-up becomes much younger. Possible additions include Rosario, Cecchini, Smith, Becerra along with Evans. In addition, there appear to be some young arms that might added to the pen.
3. What will ownership/front office be thinking of in terms of trades and free agent signings? Will they be willing to go younger, cheaper and possibly less home run oriented? Which of the starting pitchers will be offered extensions?
Too many questions for now.
4. The great unknown is always the injury issue. No one can foresee that.
Looking at 2018 provides a good perspective for 2017.
How so?
The Mets did not assume Reyes contract, I would not think they are responsible for the buyout.
Otherwise this all looks likely.
I stand corrected on Reyes.
I miss Dilson, Projected, just 6 months ago, as the 2nd Baseman for the next 10 years!
Projection is fun…but the idea that you’re just gonna clear the deck so all “The Vapor” can play is Nonsense!!! You real off 5-6-8 guys like it’s nothing to be a MLB Ballplayer!!! It’s taken Flores 3 years to look like he’s “Real”…. d’Arnaud…Plawecki…yeah, Dilson!
I’m praying we have 5 healthy and good pitchers for 2017…and Cespee…. Thats my Projection.
Interesting pegging Wright for 3rd base. He hasn’t played full time in two years, has health concerns, and I’m not even penciling him in for ’17 yet alone ’18. At this point you have to look at him as being gone. Never playing again. If he plays: awesome. If he gets 200 part time feel-good at bats: great. But don’t bank on him ever playing again let alone being a star again.
If David Wright doesn’t retire and stays with the Mets and if he can stay healthy, he will be a platoon player for the Mets from here on in. Long term, I do not see the Mets holding unto Lucas Duda and I strongly believe that Dominic Smith will be the Mets starting 1st baseman in 2018. Also I do not see the Mets resigning Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera after 2017. I believe that TJ Rivera will be the Mets starting 2nd baseman in 2018 along with Amed Rosario starting at Shortstop. The Mets will most likely resign Jose Reyes and keep him at 3rd Base because he is still a solid player and they need the veteran infield experience. Machado is a good player, however he has a terrible attitude and can be problematic long term. The Mets will more than likely not resign Curtis Granderson after 2017 making Michael Conforto their everyday Centerfielder. I see Jaso as a potential possibility for the Mets in 2018, but that’s only if Wright decides to retire. The only way the Mets will get Lorenzo Cain is unless either Jay Bruce or Yoenis Cespedes decides to go somewhere else in 2018, however I do not see that happening. I believe the Mets will end up keeping both Bruce and Cespedes in 2018. I would love to see Jonathan Lucroy in a Mets uniform and be the Mets starting Catcher in 2018 if the Mets decide to part ways with Travis d’Arnaud, however it’s difficult to say whether or not the Wilpons will want to shell out the money for Lucroy or decide to roll the dice and go with Kevin Plawecki as their everyday starting Catcher for 2018 with Rene Rivera as their back up. As for the Mets starting rotation in 2018, you have Syndergaard, DeGrom, Harvey, Matz, Wheeler and Lugo, however if the Mets do not resign Addison Reed in 2018, I believe Seth Lugo will be the Mets 5th starter and they will move Wheeler to the bullpen to be their set up guy for Jeurys Familia.