The Mets extended the Qualifying Offer (QO) to three players – Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. Since there were only 13 players in all of MLB to receive the QO, this seems like a notable thing. The players have until 4 p.m. Eastern on Nov. 19 to make their decision. Two of them will likely reject it. The third – Severino – is a different case entirely. There was a risk from the club’s point of view to offer it in the first place. And there’s a risk from the player’s point of view in not accepting it.
Before we get to Severino, let’s talk about Alonso and Manaea for a second. Alonso had dreams of a big contract but the 2024 season, where he didn’t exactly have a great year, threw a bucket of cold water on those dreams. Alonso will still end up with a nice pay day. It’s just that it’s unlikely to be quite as big as the 7/$158 million deal they reportedly offered him in the middle of 2023. He may exceed that average annual value (AAV) but it seems unlikely that he will get seven years. And it’s among the possibilities – even if not a plurality, much less a majority – that this will be the last notable contract Alonso gets.
As for Manaea, he’s going to get a contract that would have seemed unthinkable this time last year. But, as mentioned in this piece, it really wasn’t a huge stretch to imagine that adding the sweeper to his arsenal was going to make Manaea a good pitcher. Now it’s not a question if he’ll get a multi-year deal. Instead, it’s how many years and at what AAV.
Which brings us to Severino.
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I read all the comments on the Substack site, but since it’s hard to know if there are any new ones, I’ll write mine here. Brian, totally disagree with you and Chris. Metsense is right, it’s a good deal for the Mets and Severino has no business accepting it.
I bring up Lucas Giolito from last year. He was a innings guy without much quality for a couple of years. There were rumors about his personal life affecting his performance, but he got 2/$38, plus incentives, then promptly got injured. Now, that becomes at the very best a 1/$38 plus incentives for Boston. If Severino takes the 1/$21 and gets injured, or has a bad year? Now, he gets maybe $5MM the second year making a total of $26MM and losing at least $12. He really didn’t have a good year in quite a while, shouldn’t he try for more? Don’t look at the carrot of $21, look behind it. Everyone needs pitching, he will get three years at $51 like Ben Clemens thinks.
When Giolito signed that contract last year – I wished him luck and was glad the Mets didn’t sign him to that deal.
If Severino signs a 3/$51 deal – I wish him luck and hope that someone besides the Mets gave him that deal.
Giolito did not have the QO attached to him last year. That’s going to really hurt Severino’s market, having the QO, and part of the reason I expect he takes that 1-year deal.
Fair points.