Mets mid-season prospect review, hitters

This is the second of a two-part series looking at the team’s top prospects. Here is Part I

It’s the halfway point in the season and the Mets are relevant in the NL East.  Normally most fans would be far more concerned with the prospects at this point, but it’s nice to have these guys off the NYC radar for now.  The good news is that there are plenty of good things to be gleaned from the first half in the minors.  I’ve split this into hitters and pitchers and I’ll even toss up a “Top 20 Full Season Prospect” list for the second half.

Understand: A player’s stock starts at a certain level.  If I think they have showed more than their projected ability their stock moves up.  It’s all arbitrary, but here is a list of some of the hitters in the levels above Savannah and how they are doing.

Hitters:

Zach Lutz – Before the season there were whispers of Zach coming up to replace Wright when the Mets eventually shopped and traded their star.  The plans have changed but Lutz continues to be intriguing.  He plays 3^rd and has proven he can hit AAA pitching but the injury concerns that were attached to him… remain attached to him.  I also question his hitting beyond AAA and feel like he’s a future Valentino Pascucci more than a Lucas Duda.  Stock – Down (AAAA 3B)

Jordany Valdespin – I like Jordany’s ability but worry about his ability to harness it.  I’m not in the camp of discipline.  I’m not his manager, and I can’t worry about how mature and responsible a person Jordany Valdespin is… or might become.  I’m a blogger and that means I’m concerned with how he hits in the minors and how he’ll hit in the majors.  I am starting to see some parallels with other troubled IF prospects (Alfonso Soriano and BJ Upton) who eventually found homes in the outfield.  If he was a switch hitter or a righty I’d be thrilled.  Stock – Up (MLB 4^th OF/Util or Starting CF)

Josh Satin – The man with the most glorious eyebrows in the minors has continued to be the steady and consistent hitter he’s been for the past few seasons.  He’s similar to Justin Turner but lacks the ability to play shortstop at all.  He might make up for this with a tick more power.  His patience is the aspect of his game that excited me most.  He’s going to be a good pinch hitter when the Mets eventually make room for him… or when he goes to a club that WILL make room for him. Stock – Even (MLB Util and Great Pinch Hitter)

Kirk Nieuwenhuis – I expected Kirk to reach the majors in 2012.  I expected him to stick there.  I don’t know if I expected him to have the kind of start he did, though.  Nieuwenhuis was solid for the Mets since he was called up and continues to be solid.  He has flaws in his game: No major skill (power/speed) and strikes out too much, but these are not terrible things.  From here I wonder how he progresses.  I see two paths: 1) He develops more power and patience and becomes a starting corner OF 2) He doesn’t and becomes a 4^th OF. Stock – Even (MLB 4^th OF… Probably)

Wilmer Flores – Once Wilmer Flores hit Port St. Lucie in 2010, Met fans saw big things in his future.  He was already hitting and showing signs of budding power.  Sure… he was NEVER going to stick at shortstop, but who knows… he might develop into a legit 3B or corner outfielder, right?  2011 saw Wilmer’s stock plunge and some scouts lost faith but the faithful were rewarded in 2012 as Wilmer’s power emerged in a big way, earning him a promotion to AA.  Once there he’s kept his legs churning as his AA OPS is 1.009 through his first 16 games.  Stock – UP! (MLB 1B, 2B or 3B)

Matt Den Dekker – Matt Den Dekker is hard to understand.  He plays the field like a speedy star (Kenny Lofton) but hits… more like a slugger (Mark Reynolds).  It’s just strange… but not necessarily bad.  Getting power from center field is a good thing, but I think the Mets still need to see a little more contact and patience.  Since his promotion to AAA he has 33 strike outs in 25 games and only 23 hits.  Gotta remember that 13 of those hits went for extra bases.  He’s also stealing more in AAA which might up his value more. Stock – Up (MLB CF)

Eric Campbell – I first took notice of Eric Campbell in 2010.  He showed good contact and positional flexibility in Port St. Lucie and Binghamton.  Wasn’t sure how much power he’d develop, but he earned his way into my radar screen. 2011 made him drop off that screen but he’s right back in 2012 as one of the top players for the AA squad. He needs to be able to play the outfield and infield to have much value but I think he can manage it.  Go Soup! Stock – Up (AAAA 1B or MLB Util)

Wilfredo Tovar – Tovar’s defense has always been praised but he’s also quietly and consistently hit.  If you look at the numbers they SHOULD remind you of Ruben Tejada and unfortunately for Tovar… they are basically the same age.  Even so, it’s good to see Wilfredo Tovar continuing up the ranks of the Met minors with relative ease.  He seems like he’ll have a role with one major league team or another for sure.  Stock – Up (MLB SS or Utility Infielder)

Juan Lagares – Lagares has been FINE in 2012, but fine is not the exciting and legitimate prospect we took him for in 2011.  His stock has taken a hit as his power numbers and his speed are not going to carry him beyond AAA any time soon.  He needs his OPS to rise 100 points.  Instead I’m betting he’ll repeat AA and be passed by Cory Vaughn in 2013.  Stock – Down (AAAA OF or MLB 4^th OF)

Allan Dykstra – He’s spent a lot of time hurt this season, but Dykstra still looks like Dykstra.  He’s a big guy with power who can mash home runs.  He’s just not much more than that.  Should the Mets leave Buffalo… and Valentino Pascucci behind, Dykstra will become the defacto AAA 1B.  Stock – Even (AAAA 1B or MLB Bench Bat)

Jefry Marte – He got off to a great start after a solid run in the AFL but has cooled off tremendously of late.  He had gotten ahead of Reese Havens in my rankings but he’s falling fast and could become one of the expendables in short order.  I need Marte to get hot again and stay hot.  Stock – Even (MLB Utility Player)

Reese Havens – On one hand, Reese Havens has been reasonably healthy.  He’s already surpassed his games played for 2011 with 62 in 2012.  On the other he hasn’t hit.  He’s not a defensive whiz-kid so he’ll need to use that great line-drive swing to have a shot at being an impact player.  I don’t want to write him off just yet, especially now that he’s starting to hit a little.  Stock – Down (Hard To Say)

Francisco Pena – Might be a little late but I think I should explain that a player’s stock changes are based on where I saw them before the season to now.  I saw Pena as a AAA C of the future before the season and I still see him that way now.  Stock – Even (AAA C)

T.J. Rivera – Rivera had not been on my radar before 2012 and I’m not sure how excited I should get about him just yet.  He’s got the ability to play a shaky short stop in the field and he hit and hit and hit in Savannah… which isn’t the easiest place to hit.  Now in Port St. Lucie he’s having a tougher time with the more advanced pitchers.  Still… he earned his way onto my radar screen.  Stock – Up (AAAA IF)

Daniel Muno – He needs to come back and be clean for a season before we’ll discuss him.  Stock – Down (Cheater)

Darrell Ceciliani – I like Darrell’s tools and still thought he had a shot of being a starting CF and leadoff hitter in the majors.  He’s just gotten hurt a lot this season and it means he’s  lost some of his value.  Stock – Down (MLB 4^th OF or Injury Risk)

Travis Taijeron – Travis Taijeron obliterated the pitching in Sanvannah.  He took the Low-A level by storm and earned a promotion to High-A Port St. Lucie.  He’s done relatively well since the promotion but he still has plenty of flaws in his game.  He should earn a shot to start in AA in 2013 if he continues to play this well in 2012.  Stock – UP (MLB Corner OF)

Blake Forsythe – Don’t get too excited.  He’s started hitting in Port St. Lucie and has numbers I’d call: “Okay” He’s gone from a AAAA Catcher to a platoon catcher, in my mind.  Stock – Up (MLB Platoon Catcher)

Cory Vaughn – He started the year and I was popping champagne.  Then he hit a terrible slump and my early jubilation seemed foolhardy.  The good news is that this SUPER streaky hitter is currently hot.  He needs to improve his contact and patience but the power is there if he can make those steps.  He could earn a promotion to AA when Eric Campbell moves up to AAA.  He had fallen out of the running to start after his 2011… I think there is a VERY slim chance now.  Stock – Up (MLB 4^th OF or… MAYBE Corner OF)

Cesar Puello – Puello wasn’t doing great… then he got hurt.  I think Puello has proven he gets much better as a year wears on but, the injury alone lowers his stock greatly.  Stock – Down (MLB 4^th OF or Injury Risk)

Camden Maron – Before the season I thought of Cam as another Josh Thole… maybe one with better defense.  Not something bad but not someone to hang your hat on.  If his defense holds up and if his bat has the additional power I think it does he could be a solid starting catcher in the next three years.  I hope that’s the case.  Stock – Up (MLB Catcher… Maybe Platoon)

Aderlin Rodriguez – Perhaps he’s become the most intriguing bat in the Met farm system.  Earlier this season I pondered if Aderlin would never have a true position.  He currently plays third and the reports weren’t so great.  The Mets toyed with moving Aderlin to first but… low and behold… his defense is improving.  Add to this that he’s displayed power and pretty good “Slugger” stats in Savannah.  Aderlin was promoted prior to Thursday’s games.  He should finish the year in Port St. Lucie but be knocking on the door to play in AA in 2013.  Stock – UP (Power 3B/1B)

Dustin Lawley – Lawley’s not going to have an easy road.  What I will say is that he’s currently hitting enough to be promoted and that if he continued on this pace there would be no reason to not think he’d become an everyday MLB player.  The reality is that his performance probably exceeds his ability right now.  Stock – Up (MLB Corner OF… but probably not)

Gilbert Gomez – This is mostly my fault because I bought into Gomez’s short stint in Port St. Lucie and that was probably pre-mature.  2012 has shown me that he could develop into an alternative OF but not really looking like a starter.  Stock – Down (MLB 4^th OF)

Top 20 Rankings: (Full Season Minors Only)

1. Matt Harvey, SP
2. Zack Wheeler, SP
3. Wilmer Flores, 3B/2B
4. Jenrry Mejia, SP/RP
5. Matt Den Dekker, CF
6. Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B/1B
7. Jeurys Familia, SP/RP
8. Collin McHugh, SP
9. Domingo Tapia, SP
10. Travis Taijeron, LF/RF
11. Jefry Marte, 3B/1B
12. Rafael Montero, SP/RP
13. Wilfredo Tovar, SS/2B
14. Cory Vaughn, OF
15. Logan Verrett, SP
16. Michael Fulmer, SP
17. Juan Lagares, LF/RF
18. Camden Maron, C
19. Jack Leathersich, RP
20. Tyler Pill, SP