Mets Minors: Reviewing MLB.com’s Mets top prospects: Part II

Click here to read Part I of this series.

#6 Wilmer Flores:

What They Said – ‘After 2011, it would be easy to look at Flores’ numbers and feel like he’d been disappointing, especially for a highly touted prospect. He quieted doubters in 2012, however, hitting well at the Class A Advanced level and earning a mid-season promotion to Double-A, all at the age of 20. He still has things to learn, particularly in the plate discipline department, but he rarely strikes out and has begin to tap into his power. A shortstop for the first few years of his career, Flores has played all around the infield in 2012, focusing on third base. This has been a big year for Flores, who started turning potential into performance.’

What I Thought – Lots of people gave up on Wilmer and I was actually not among them.  Wilmer was potentially going to be my Fernando Martinez Mk II.  I was going to tout his age and level as the reason for the lack of progress and caution fans to exercise patience with this kid.  I wasn’t sure he’d develop power… perhaps this is why I kept suggesting the Mets should switch him to catcher (Still doesn’t seem outrageous to me) at some point.  I liked his contact and thought he’d have a good shot at still becoming a major league talent.

What We Got – We got all of that power we had been waiting for.  Flores had 10 HRs and 12 doubles in Port St. Lucie and then was promoted to AA where he hit 18 doubles, 2 triples and 8 HRs.  He had about 65 games in each division so I think we can’t point to the numbers and call them fluky.  Pretty much everything stayed consistent:

• A+: 64 Games, 242 ABs, 31 Runs, 70 Hits, 12 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 10 HRs, 42 RBIs, 3 SBs, 2 CS, 18 BBs, 30 Ks, .289/.336/.463 and a .799 OPS
• AA: 66 Games, 251 ABs, 37 Runs, 78 Hits, 18 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 8 HRs, 33 RBIs, 0 SBs, 0 CS, 20 BBs, 30 Ks, .311/.361/.494 and a .855 OPS

It’s hard not to smile when you look at that.  There’s power, production, contact, patience… EVERYTHING.  Well… not speed, but you get the point.  The question is no longer IF he will hit well enough to justify his position.  (He could play as an MLB 1B if he’s going to hit like that.)  The question is where does he fit on the Mets.

• 1B: 7 Games, 51 PO, 5 A, 1 E, 2 DP, .982 Fld%
• 2B: 27 Games, 117 PO, 72 A, 1 E, 15 DP, .992 Fld%
• 3B: 87 Games, 56 PO, 124 A, 10 E, 6 DP, .947 Fld%

This might make you jump up and shout, “He’s a second baseman!”  This is where I have to trust the scouting reports because stats don’t tell the story on a fielder.  Scouts say that he’s destined to play on one of the corners because his legs can’t support the range needed at second.  We’ll have to guess if that’ll prove true, but unless the Mets give him a shot a catcher (hint hint) I’m banking on him as a 3B.

#7 Reese Havens:

What They Said – ‘When he was drafted out of the University of South Carolina in 2008, the hope was Havens would be a college player who’d move quickly. Injuries have been the biggest obstacle, with Havens playing over 61 games for just the first time in four seasons in 2012. In previous years Havens had shown a good approach at the plate and a solid all-around bat, although he struggled a bit in Double-A in 2012. Still, he’s played well at second after being a shortstop in college and if he can stay on the field he could be ready for New York soon.’

What I Thought – I loved Havens.  I still do.  He’s got a SWEET SWEET SWEET SWEET swing and he can hit.  I basically was hoping for health and I assumed if he could stay healthy that he’d be knocking on the door of Daniel Murphy asking if he liked the weather in Detroit.

What We Got – We actually got health.  (Wait… Havens was hurt for part of the year!) Havens played in 94 games… the most since 2009.  His results just weren’t great.  At the age of 25 in AA he managed a dismal triple slash of: .215/.340/.351 and an OPS of: .691.  Those are not numbers of a major leaguer.  Havens will be promoted to AAA but he’s going to likely be splitting time with Flores and Eric Cambell as they shift people around the infield again.  Havens is in need of a successful trip to the AFL and I hope the Mets give it to him.

#8 Michael Fulmer:

What They Said – ‘As the third-best high-school pitcher in Oklahoma in 2011, Fulmer didn’t get much attention, what with fellow Sooners Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley going in the top 10 of the Draft. But Fulmer has good stuff of his own, a power arm who can crank it up into the mid-to-upper 90s, and he has shown that in his first full season. He throws a hard slider along with it and he’ll work to develop a changeup. He has a bulldog mentality on the mound and goes right after hitters. Fulmer needs some polish, but if it all comes together, that power arsenal will look very good in the Mets’ rotation one day.’

What I Thought – I was a nay-sayer.  I said nay and I can’t say why.  Sometimes a prospect comes along and I look at his name and think, “What kind of name is that for baseball?”  I don’t think this was the case but the natural contrarian in me was skeptical that the Sooners could produce 3 front-line quality starters in one draft.

What We Got – We got to prove me wrong, which is LOVELY.  He played in Savannah so, the first thing I must caution is, “PITCHER FRIENDLY” ballpark probably helped.  His numbers are still quite good.  He started 21 games for the Sand Gnats on the year and threw 108.1 innings.  5.16 innings a start isn’t phenomenal but this is his first year of full-season baseball and he lasted.  Now let’s look at some of the numbers:

• 2.74 ERA – It’s tough for me to look at an ERA and be excited.  The stat can be misleading but when a pitcher does give up almost 8 hits a game and can keep his ERA under 3 it shows he uses the bases to pick his battles.
• 101 Ks and 8.4 K/9 – Fulmer’s strikeouts improved as the year wore on, it seemed in the early going that he was far from a front-end starter but all of that changed and he finished with a K/9 around that magical realm of 9.
• 3.2 BB/9 – This doesn’t sound so great without a little perspective.  In his average 5 inning start he would strike out 4.7 batters and walk 1.7 more.  On this trend he was controlled enough for my liking.

Fulmer will be in Port St. Lucie for most of 2013.  The Mets would be wise not to promote him to AA too quickly but there is reason to hope with this kid.

#9 Rafael Montero:

What They Said – ‘Montero went from the Dominican Summer League to the Gulf Coast League before making stops in the Appalachian and New York-Penn Leagues to finish off a very successful first season as a professional. He picked up 2012 where he left off, excelling in the South Atlantic League and earning a promotion to Class A Advanced St. Lucie after 12 starts. The Dominican right-hander has the chance to have a good three-pitch mix with his fastball, curve and changeup, though the secondary pitches need work behind his fastball. He is advanced in that he commands all of his pitches and can throw all of them for strikes. After reaching an innings limit set by the Mets organization, Montero was shut down on August 11.’

What I Thought – Montero was one of those guys who throws an assortment of pitches but doesn’t necessarily strike me as a front-line starter and so I file him away as somebody to compete for a latter spot in the rotation.  I didn’t really pay Montero much mind until I saw how highly MLB.com ranked him.

What We Got – Wrong, wrong wrong… Isn’t it great when I’m wrong?  Montero finished the year (combined between Savannah and St. Lucie) with a 2.36 ERA.  He started 20 games and pitched 122 innings, averaging 6.1 innings per start.  He only averaged 6.8 K’s per 9 in Savannah but rocketed up to 9.9 in Port St. Lucie and he has very good control.  A pitcher with quality control who sits casually 90-93 with flashes of 94, who also throws a “Frisbee” slider and a curveball could very-much factor into the front half a rotation.  Add to this that he’s a shoe-in to start the year in AA where his inning limit will be around 150-160 innings and that he’s only going to be 22 and we can see how plainly I was wrong.

#10 Domingo Tapia:

What They Said – ‘Tapia has plenty of projection and already possesses a plus-plus fastball, one that has touched triple digits at times. He throws it with a lot of sink and commands it fairly well, generating a good amount of ground balls as a result. His secondary stuff isn’t close to his heater, though his curve and changeup have a chance to be decent pitches down the line. He has a long way to go, but it’s hard not to like his upside.’

What I Thought – Taking a shot in the dark I had pegged Akeel Morris as the best of the Mets second crop of hard throwing pitchers. (Domingo Tapia, Juan Urbina and Akeel Morris) Why did Tapia fall to number two on my list?  I was impressed by Akeel’s better ability to blow the ball by people that I overlooked Tapia’s superior control.  That was foolish of me.

What We Got – Tapia is the leader of that second pack.  By far!  His control is VERY good.  The 2.7 BB/9 is a testament to that and I might argue that with more time he’ll be able to control things even better.  Tapia has three pitches: A 4-Seem Fastball (95-97 [99]), a 2-Seem Fastball (94-95), and a Changeup (88-89).  To throw that kind of heat with control is pretty special.  That said, he doesn’t have a breaking pitch with a ton of break.  He needs to develop a slider or a curveball to give batters something a little less straight to worry about, but we can worry about that in 2013 and 2014 as he develops through Port St. Lucie and wherever the Mets leave Binghamton for.  In 20 Games he managed 108.2 innings or 5.43 innings per start, which is admirable.  He only walked 32 and he struck out 101.  His overall K/9 is 8.4 but I could easily see this improve exponentially with the development of a 4^th pitch.  The nicest stat to see with Tapia is his 1.141 WHIP which indicates that he keeps runners off the bases.  Want a complaint?  He hit 8 batters.

Click here to read Part I of this series.