My good buddy, Matt Garrioch of MLB Prospect Guide and Minor League Ball, comes out every year with his top prospect list and we both go professionally head to head with each other (it has been professional, right Matt J) over what he was smoking when he came up with some of these names. Of course, both of us are just applying opinions here, which, as the old saying goes…
Matt has 666 followers on Twitter. I have 70. Is this where I insert the ‘quality verses quantity’ piece?
Here are Matt’s pics and my thoughts:
AAA – International League
Hitting – none – I can’t agree more. The system didn’t produce one potential major league starter. Zach Lutz (.298) and Josh Satin (.286) both had a nice year, but are far from the top 15 hitters in AAA. This seems to be a yearly pattern with this team and it sure would be nice if the policies of the Mets could change so more prospects could play, trip, fall, pick themselves up, and learn to play at this level, rather than field AAAA players (Fred Lewis, Bobby Scales, Val Pascuchi, etc) that have no future in Queens. Enough of this.
Pitching – #2 – Jeurys Familia
#6 – Matt Harvey
#11 – Jenrry Mejia – Matt and I never agree about everything, but I have to tell you this. You’re going to have to look far and wide to find someone that ranks Familia ahead of Harvey. I don’t even have him second in AAA this year. That would go to Josh Edgn, with Mejia coming in a close third. It seems that Edgin and Harvey have successfully made the jump to Queens, but overall, the production out of the AAA franchise is once again sub-par.
I will say this. Prospects were once again exposed early to the MLB due to injuries on the parent squad and players like Kirk Nieuwenhius and Luca Duda had their downside exposed
AA – Eastern League
Hitting – #3 – Wilmer Flores
#5 – Jefry Marte
#9 – Wilfredo Tovar – I don’t understand how you leave off a .340 hitter from this list. I believe Matt Den Dekker was leading the league in hitting when he was promoted to AAA. Garrioch does list players that excelled at multiple levels. Doesn’t Dekker deserve a proper ranking here, even though his AAA stint was sub-par? The Eastern League should be disbanded and the players auctioned off if Marte’s .251 stint ranks him the best prospect overall. I barely had him fifth on the B-Mets alone.
Pitching – #4 – Zack Wheeler – IMO, Matt is correct here. Ryan Fraser had a nice go here, but he’s not one of the top 15 pitchers in the league.
A+ – Florida State League
Hitting – #5 – Wilfredo Tovar
#7 – Wilmer Flores – I tried to figure out Matt’s criteria in ranking Tovar this high. He batters .284 while with this team, which would rank him at the end of the season as the 13th top hitter. I can understand the Flores pick because he ranks fourth overall in the league. Also, it’s obvious that hitting one less than the league leading home run hitter (Cory Vaughn) doesn’t get you on the list unless you bat over .250 (.243). Basically, this was a team full of .250 hitters, proving they future is in doubt.
Pitching – #11 – Rafael Montero
#14 – Jack Leathersich – I would have considered an injured Tyler Pill here, but, if I had to have two, Matt’s got the right ones.
A – South Atlantic League
Hitting – none – and you thought St. Lucie hitters were meh? The Mets seem to consistently drafting players at all positions that simply don’t have the skills to stand out. Has this become that big of a pitcher dominated sport now. OF Travis Taijeron did well here, but faded at Lucy. Aderlin Rodriguez did his annual twice-the errors-to-home-runs ration and finally got out of town And OF Dustin Lawley’s 14 HRs gave us something to keep an eye on, but it was C Cam Maron who was the closest thing to a bat here (and he couldn’t throw out Toby Hyde at second. I sure hope the Mets return to the free agency market in 2014-2015 because, between what played in St. Lucie and Savannah this year, you’ve got two years of bad road coming down the highway.
Pitching – #3 – Michael Fulmer
#14 – Domingo Tapia – It’s a shame Logan Verrett had to spend time on the DL for a questionable injury during a period where there were too many starters on the roster. He definitely would have made this list.
Low-A – New York Penn League
Hitting – #11 – Phillip Evans – Phillip Evans? What are you talking about, Willis? Is Matt a close relative? A .252 batting average for a top prospect at this level should earn you nothing. The only player that came close to the top 15 should have been Eudy Pina.
Pitching – #2 – Gabriel Ynoa
#9 – Luis Cessa
#10 – Hansel Robles – and Matt easily could have kept going from there with up to three more names. A very talented staff, though generally old of the level they played at.
Rookie – Appalachian League
Hitting – #12 – Tomas Nido
Pitching – #9 – Robert Gsellman – Nido batted ..242??? Is this a name fetish? Gsellman had a 1.37 WHIP. I’m sorry, the only player on this team that showed me something was an early Steven Matz and a late John Gant.
Rookie – Dominican Summer League
Hitting – #5 – Vicente Lupo – no doubt about this one, but remember the name C Adrian Abreu.
Pitching – none
***DRAFT ALERT***
I need to bring to your attention that, if the season ended on 9-13 before going into the night’s schedule of games, the Mets would have been granted the 8th pick in the 1st round of the 2012 draft.
This is like, really big shit folks and, even the Mets would have a hard time passing over one of the quality names at the beginning of the draft.
The A+ blue-chippers (in no particular order) are:
RHP Mark Appel
OF Austin Meadows
LHP Sean Manaea
RHP Ryne Stanek
C Jeremy Martinez
SS Oscar Mercado
3B Kris Bryant
There would be so much still ‘out there’, including ‘pop’ outfielders like college boys Austin Wilson, Aaron Judge, and Tony Kemp, all of which could end the year at AA.
(Imagine what could have been… an outfield of Wilson, Brandon Nimmo, and Courtney Hawkins)
Great article, thanks. Our hitting is scary for its hollow echo.
LIstening to Keith yesterday, about Ryan Braun, showed a lack of understanding of testosterone as he opined about Braun and the MVP voting, as if to say Braun silenced his critics. Muscle built through hard work and testosterone can be maintained, up to 80%, by continued hard work and high levels of protein. One can use and gain and gain, and only give back a small percentage of the gains when forced to stop due to testing.
Ryan Braun’s denial brought chuckles:
http://statement-analysis.blogspot.com/2012/09/ryan-braun-statement-analysis.html
Peter…you are dead on accurate about the miscoceptions of testosterone specifically and doping in general. The other sport I follow is cycling, and let me tell you it is light years ahead understanding, testing, finding and punishing. The main thing is in recognizing its not just like Bonds and Co. getting wildly bigger, although that is of course one thing for steroid use. Some people use it to get modestly bigger, or in many cases to speed recovery times from the daily grind or injury. There was recently a great nyt article about doping by a cyclist now running a pro team and commenting about the effects of doping. I encourage everyone to have a read.
Braun is 100% guilty (a handling technicality cannot explain the actual results). And if Cabrera wins the batting title having cheated then covered up the cheating, AND allowed to play post season, MLB should be utterly ashamed of itself.
I’m not exactly sure how a post on Mets prospects has morphed into a contempt for testosterone, but speaking from a guy who’s about to have his turned off on September 28th, a change in subject would be a welcomed relief 🙂
I know a general Sunday discussion about sports in general and the Mets, in particular, was a good idea. I wiah I started ‘The War Room’ earlier in my ‘career’ (sic).
Sorry for the hijack Mack…
There wasn’t a lot of good news!!
I started the off topic…it began with Keith and ended with Lance. Chris, Statement analysis of Lance, consistent for years, shows deception. I am a cycling fan, too, and unfortunately today, a Ranger fan.
Jet fan, too.
We don’t have a lot to talk about in terms of hitting prospects, but talking pitching prospects is very exciting. I would rather see prospects pitching than Chris Young…
I started a Sunday features in the last month of my old site (I didn’t plan on closing the site then, but things just developed…).
It was called ‘The War Room’ and would either cover a general topic about the Mets or let readers head of in any direction they wanted to go.
I used to hae a similar page with my active writers at the time called “Mack and Company”.
Brian Joura was an active participant in ‘The War Room’
One of you might suggest to him having a hosting of a general weekly “bitch room” about the Mets… just a thought.
War room…you definately saved the best for last. One second you’re asking readers what the next topic should be…and then BOOM! On hiatus, the site shut down, to mets 360, the rest is history!
Anyway, I feel like the 2012 draft was a total bust…already!! In ’11, we got some great talent all the way to Leathersich and then trickled throughout until Evans. This year seems completely lost( although things can change).
This year, I really hope, for them to please draft and sign their next power hitting outfielder. Right handed power hitter, good defense. Please. Another first pick like Checchini and I’m going back to just following the Mets and not their minors anymore.
Mack, I just re-read your post…losing coverage for testosterone via insurance Sept 28th? If so, sorry to hear.
I didn’t think it would be issue to go off topic, especially since the article spoke about Met hitting.
Thanks Peter.
It wasn’t an issue… it was a joke 🙂
I just caught that too. No contempt for testosterone as a drug for those in need. Only for those cheating to win. In any case, sorry again for completely derailing your original intent.
(With the hopes we do have some open forum some time…loved your suggestion)
Chris
Chris and Peter:
This was just a bad attempt about making a joke about my upcoming prostate surgery on Sept 28 when they “turn off the faucet”
I should’t have brought it up. Next subject…
Hey Mack,
Great article. Since the disaster with the AAA affilaite, what do you say they just stick Lupo in Vegas next spring, let him put up some numbers and bring him to Citifield by June :-)?
One thing about Las Vegas…
You will NOT see the Mets send their top pitching prospects there, especially as the heat and humidity heat up. It’s very bad on young pitching…
The Mets are going to have a real problem on their hands… April will be too cold to pitch in Binghamton, and May will be too humid in Vegas, but don’t be surprised if you don’t see pitchers like Zack Wheeler, find their path to Queens through AA not AAA.
Ive wondered if the AA to Big League is the better path for wunderkind anyway? seems like we hear more and more AAA doesnt necessarily bring out the best (like Wally has said about Harvey) in player development?? Is that crazy?
Chris
No, you are right Chris.
I’ve never liked the AAAA bullcrap of this level. Do these teams really need 30 year old + players hanging around waiting for a phonecall? Does the NBA instruction league have the old guys on the bench?
No, elevate the game. You see more and more players making the majors by the end of their first or second professional season. “Youth” it up!
Glad to hear you say that. I see AAA as a place to send people down to to recover from injury or a team essentially staffed by folks playing baseball never to have more than a cup of coffee. AAA is mostly a dead end and serves cities to have a pro ball team more than the next step up. As far as upward player development goes, I can see AAA being a short stint, say a month or two, just to get some ABs or starts against big league players, and then move em up to the show. The game is so much younger now. Putting someone like Harvey or Wheeler in purgatory for a whole season seems like a waste of time, and potentially exposing them to fruitless injury.
You’ll have plenty of people cheering for you next week Mack!
Chris
I get it Mack… By the way the users of testosterone can build muscle in lots of areas where there is no testing and then go clean and try out for MLB baseball. it needs consideration.
Back on topic: I wondered why Val Pascucci could hit so many AAA home runs but not be on the big club?
Peter:
There are so many holes in Pascucci’s swing. Basically, he closes his eyes and swings as hard as he can. Once in awhile the bat actually hits the ball thrown at the right angle. There’s very little skill here.
He’s a comic book hero in Buffalo who was even a bigger rock star in Japan, but he’s far from a major league baseball player.
4,896 official minor league at-bats… 1,353 strike-outs
75 official major league at-bats… 25 strikeouts
(The Mets did not want to carry him on the 2012 roster but agreed to after the owners of the Bisons asked them to re-consider. He brings the fans to the seats and will probably be back with the Bisons next year when they are not affiliated with the Mets)
Thanks, Mack, for filling me in. Another for ya: Steven Matz? from Long Guyland, 2010, Tommy John surgery….
prosepcts?
I know Steven.
His surgery was successful, but his arm keeps tightening up because he only knows how to throw the ball one way, balls out.
BTW – sat 98 this year, hit 100… still very young… probably will not mae Savannag staff due the the Five Amigos from Brooklyn..