My first personal (not the compilation version) mock this year was on August 26th. It’s time for this to be updated:
1. RHP Mark Appel – Stanford – I’m going to stay with Appel until someone comes along and knocks him off the hill. He probably should have been drafted first last year. I still think, in the long run, teams will pick pitchers first and this draft only seems to have a couple of top ones. You pass on these first three guys and you may kick yourself in the ass for years.
2. RHP Ryne Stanek – Arkansas – Stanek is a sure fire overall first pick if Appel didn’t come back to Stanford. Frankly, he still might be. Scouts say he could be ready for the majors by opening day 2014.
3. LHP Sean Manaea – Indiana State – we all know that Manaea is the best lefty out there… but, this is another bad LHP class (when was the last good one?) and we just have no one to compare him to. A top 5 team just can’t pass on him.
4. OF Austin Meadows – Grayson (GA) – I can’t believe I dropped Meadows to 4th. He’s easily the top pick overall on talent, but, like I said before, pitchers go a long way on opening day (you will notice I don’t have a lot of RHPs in this round. I just don’t like what I’m seeing going into this season).
5. OF Clint Frazier – Loganville (GA) – Frazier might pass Meadows in the draft before everything is over in June. He potentially is the top every day player out there.
6. RHP Clinton Holton – Woodford H.S. (KY) – Holton could have actually been first if it wasn’t for some tendon soreness that slowed down his progress in late 2011. The best pure arm out of high school, but scouts are watching closely for additional arm problems.
7. OF Austin Wilson – Stanford – I simply love this guy and, overall tools wise, may be the best pure athlete in the draft. Sure wish he could fall to 11th.
8. C Jeremy Martinez – Mater Dei (CA) – Martinez could go anywhere from 6-12, but he will be the top catcher picked in the draft. I particularly like this year for catchers, though I’m not sure if I like it because other positions come up so weak. Martinez isn’t weak. He’s a sure-fire top 10 pick.
9. OF Justin Williams – Terrebonne (LA) – Here’s your bat. John Sickles says he’s the best there is in the draft and John knows a few things about this subject. People go to the stadium just to see his BP and then drive home before the game. A future star.
10. 3B Kris Bryant – San Diego – Bryant remains throughout the early mock season as the top third baseman, a position I see him keeping up to June. He’s one of those “draft him and don’t worry about the position for the next 10 years” kind of guys. Everyone loves them.
11. (Mets) OF Aaron Judge – Fresno State – Okay, my next pick on talent along was Oscar Mercado, but I just couldn’t list the Mets drafting another shortstop. Judge’s bat is very close to Williams and I have him a lot higher than everyone else out on the mock trail. The Mets need to show fans they are trying to address the outfield problems, though drafting one in 2013 isn’t going to help them in the next three years. The easy pick would be William Abreu, but I think Judge is going to hit the snot off the ball this season for FS.
12. SS Oscar Mercado – Gaither (FL) – Mercado isn’t dropping in the draft. It’s just that other guys playing other positions are getting more pre-season hype. He’s easily the top shortstop in the draft and, if a team needs one, he’ll go higher.
13. 3B Colin Moran – North Carolina – Moran can play most of the infield effectively and looks to be a safe bet on draft day. Another of those college guys that could move fast.
14. LHP Stephen Gonsalves – Cathedral Catholic (CA) – the only thing that Gonsalves did wrong so far this off-season was start off as the top lefty in the mocks. You know people love to pick away at the King of the Hill. Still, he’s been on every first round mock so far (21) and he reminds me of Lance McCullers Jr. last year. Everybody wanted to hate him come draft day and all he does is pitch well.
15. RHP Kohl Stewart – St. Pius (TX) – the new hot shot kid of the mock circuit… the summer leagues create all these new names and, frankly, they are starting to be a better place to evaluate high school talent. You at least know they are playing against a team stocked with quality players rather than some shrimp school back in their home county.
16. OF William Abreu – Mater (FL) – another early mock favorite
17. RHP Dylan Covey – San Diego – Covey had a very inconsistent 2011 and needs to dominate this year to get back to the top 10 area he deserves to be in
18. 3B Trey Williams – College of the Canyons – I seem to be the only pundit out there that has this handfull on the map. Big-time high school prospect that has been in and out of 567 schools (of course there isn’t an attitude problem here) and now he’s enrolled in some school just to become freshman eligible. Still, a top talent.
19. RHP Karsten Whitson – Florida – Whitson might have been getting all the headlines if he either signed out of high school or wasn’t both injured and inconsistent in college. Lots of talent here that just doesn’t seem to be able to put it all together anymore. Needs a big junior season.
20. LHP Ian Clarkin – James Madison (CA) – another summer ball wonder
21. RHP Bobby Wahl – Mississippi
22. LHP Marco Gonzales – Gonzaga
23. RHP Adam Plutko – UCLA
24. C Reese McGuire – Kentwood (WA)
25. RHP Chris Oakey – St. Augustine Prep (NJ)
26. LHP Trey Ball – Chrysler (IN)
27. C Logan Koch – South Mecklinburg (NC)
28. C Zack Collins – America Heritage (FL)
29. C Chris Okey – Eustis (FL)
30. SS Chris Rivera – El Dorado (CA)
31. LHP Jonah Wesely – Tracy (CA)
The Mets next pick will be a compensation pick for not signing Teddy Stankiewicz. Right now, that’s the 76th pick overall in the 2nd round, giving the Mets two second round picks.
As I mentioned, this isn’t a deep draft, but it’s good for outfielders and catchers. There should still be some interesting names around when the Mets turns come up.
Possible candidates:
RHP – Austin Kubitza (Rice), A.J. Vanegas (Stanford), Corey Knebel (Texas), Tom Windle (Minnesota), Forrest Koumas (South Carolina)
LHP – Zach Farmer (Piketon HS), A.J. Puk (Washington HS),
C – Jake Wise (Arkansas), Anthony Sherlag (Simeon HS), Tyler Alamo (Cypress HS)
2B – LJ Mazzilli (Connecticut)
SS – forgettaboutit
OF – Brandon Thomas (GT), Mike Yastrzemski (Vanderbilt), JaCoby Jones (LSU), Phillip Erwin (Samford), Josh Hart (Parkview HS), Jared King (Kansas State)
What are your thought about how GMs in general and Sandy Alderson in particular will approach next year’s draft, having had a year of drafting and signing players under the terms of the new CBA?
I think they began the process of figuring it out.
The Mets approach was one of asking certain draft picks to sign for under-slotting money. This is what cot them signing Teddy Stank.
I think the true test comes in two years when a 4-year full cycle college class is completed. I just don’t see the incentive for a high school top star to not sign when the bonus money negotiation is basically off the table. Moreover, what about the high school kid that isn’t drafted and it’s going on the 8th round? Might as well sign right.
There will always be teams that target a certain player (especially out of high school) and want to ‘gather the nuts’ up from monies saved from other draft picks under-slotted down.
The Mets participated in this last draft and seemed to have failed miserably. We’ll see.
I hope they pick a Josh Willingham type outfielder. A 30/90-100 RBI guy. Someone from college who isn’t going to take 5 yrs to mature. As much as I liked the 2011 draft, I still hate the way they went about 2012. This draft, I hope they go a little safer, guys who won’t take 4 or 5 years. Then, hopefully by 2015 or 2016, players from all 3 drafts might all be ready to field a great team.
Part of the reason we haven’t developed any out fielders is that we’ve constantly selected college guys who can get up here sooner. Kirk, MDD, Vaughn, Ceciliani. They were all 3rd-5th round selections who would sign at or below slot which effects the results as well but there are HS OFer’s who get up quickly. McCutchen, Stanton, Trout, Jay Bruce, Jason Heyward, Rasmus, Maybin, both Upton’s, Ben Revere and Wil Myers this coming season were all (or will be) up in 2, 3 or 4 years. That means their up here producing at 21 rather than beginning their first full season of pro baseball and a year or two lost to injury isn’t as severe as it is to a college player like Havens or Ceciliani.
The HS player is riskier but when they hit, they hit a lot bigger and for a longer period and that’s what we really need. Someone who will play RF or CF at a high level for 8-10 years even if we have to wait an extra year or two to get it.
7train:
You make a good point.
Talent is talent and, frankly, the Mets don’t seem to draft consistently based on this…
A great player, three years younger than a very good player, is still a better player.
The recent choices the Mets have made in the oufield (minus Nimmo) have a limited amount of skills. I really would llike to see the Mets draft someone that already has shown in college that they strike out too much.
My guess is the Mets outfield won’t begin to solitify until 2014. Money will free up for a decent FA singing and Nimmmo should be playing Binghamton by then, which should be the gateway to Queens.
Charles:
You may fall in love with Lucas Duda if you’re loooking for a 30/90 guy. I’m happy with him in RF (great insurance policy if Ike Davis ever goes down) if he eventually becomes the 3rd most talented outfielder in Queens.
Agree Mack,
Corey Vaughn had 62 K’s in 61 games for San Diego State his senior year. Still not a terrible 4th round pick as he’s a pretty good defender and some HR power but his primary asset was that he would sign for slot which seems to be the Mets primary concern for years now under multiple GM’s.
Can’t go over anymore but the fact that we didn’t while everyone else did is really going to make the climb back up the hill a lot tougher.
I still think a lack of cash contributed mightlily to their last draft. Having Hawkings and McCullers on the board and going for Cechinni? The players they passed on didn’t sign for too much more. Could of had either one for what they paid Gavin plus what they saved in Teddy.
Hawkins signed for 175K more than Cecchini so it wasn’t a huge difference.
I think the money spent was about getting up the middle position players the last two years.
Nimmo, Evans, Marquez were the guys they spent extra on in 2011. Cecchini, Plaweicki in 2012 and Garcia and Rosario internationally.
Plate discipline may have influenced the choice between Hawkins and Cecchini to some extent. Hawkins has already been fast tracked, I don’t think Cecchini will be so it will be a while before we have an idea of who was the better pick.
Something happened when Cechinni participated in a late workout at CitiField, right before the draft. They REALLY fell in love with him.
It could also indicate a reduction in confidence for Phillip Evans.
It seems to me that the only position the Mets are not in “Need” of is starting pitcher. The Mets have some depth there. I would be happy with a catcher, shortstop, or outfielder. Pretty much anything that isn’t a starter or 1B in the first round and even then… we could probably find a use for them. Just draft on skill.
David, good point.
A question… 2014 looks like Wheeler, Harvey, Dickey, and Niese…
What if Dylan Covey or Karsten Whitson have a killer junior year… keep drafting top pitchers until you have an unbeatable rotation, allowing you to trade the rest of them for positional players?
Both Covey and Whitson could actually be ready in 2014 for an SP5 role… Montero and Fulmer won’t be.
Just a thought
I would simply like the Mets to draft with high ceilings in mind. I had about 20 names that missed the cut on the Role Player listings
OF and catcher have been seriously neglected over the last 15 years with draft picks that consistently produce impact players. Milledge had the talent but Tyner was a leadoff guy playing LF. Javier Rodriguez I don’t know much about but he bombed out.
In the last few years Murphy, Duda, Spin, Lagares, Campbell and Harris all moved from the IF to the OF. Some of that is normal but in our case it was about trying to get a stick in the OF or because there was no one else.
Lastly on this whole high school/college thing…
If I draft a high school player in 2013…
2013: finishes the year on a short team, either Kingsport or Brooklyn
2014: Brooklyn or Savannah
2015: Savannah or St. Lucie
So, would someone try and explain to me why every top pick out of college doesn’t start at St. Lucie?
Do SS baseball leagues count toward rule 5 years? I don’t think they do so you get a break in year that doesn’t count. College players also have about 60 games in them by the time they show up and the full season leagues are already in full swing.
Yes they do
Harvey did… To me, the greatest upside of picking a college player, is that you can hopefully skim two years of development off their rise. Davis and Havens both started in Brooklyn. I think that had more to do with signing quick. The Cyclones season starts right after the draft. You are right though, players signed from college should start at least in high A ball.
I don’t care where you play a college junior the same year you sign them. I miss the GCL Mets team where you could hide them and have them at your complex.
But, if you draft them in 2013, start them off in 2014 with Lucy, end that season with Binghamton, and get them on tract for a major league debut of 2016 latest.
And I don’t care who is in the way. Get out of the way of the talent.