This past week, rumors leaked that Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson was considering pursuing Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton. The reports were that a package to get Stanton would likely include highly touted Mets pitcher Zack Wheeler and catcher Travis d’Arnaud. From the standpoint of the Mets’ needs, this trade could make sense, however it might be too high a price to pay.
Nothing is wrong with Stanton, performance-wise. He’s only 23 years old and has already established himself as one of the premier power hitters in the league. In the past two years, Stanton has hit 30-plus dingers, and he has had a career ISO of .222. It would be a smart move for the Mets finally to replace the vacancy of a top-tier bat in the outfield, and Stanton could also help out covering ground in Citi because he’s always been a decent defender.
Although the Marlins have stated that Stanton is not on the market, it’s inevitable that he gets traded. Between the deep distrust of the Marlins by players who are looking to sign a long-term deal, and Stanton’s expressed unhappiness about how the Marlins essentially blew up their team this offseason, Stanton is not going to want to return to Miami. This will ultimately make the Marlins want to deal Stanton for whatever they can get, and they’re more likely to get a better deal for him while he is still controllable than when he is a year — or even half a year — away from free agency.
However, acquiring Stanton comes with its own set of perils. The Marlins’ asking price for Stanton would be high. He’s young and already considered a superstar-caliber player. The Mets would likely have to include Wheeler and d’Arnaud as a starting point in the package, and it could extend as far as the Mets also including either Noah Syndergaard or Wilmer Flores. The problem with giving up Wheeler and d’Arnaud is that even if they are not quite what they are expected to be, their expected combined value is still likely to be higher than what the Mets could get from Stanton.
The trade has some upside to it in that it would fill gaps in the Mets outfield, but the price is just too high to pay. What’s more, Stanton is going to be heading off into free agency in three years, and will be looking for a lucrative contract, potentially in the $180-200 million range, which is too much for the Mets to spend. The Mets always have the option of exploring the free-agent market next year, which includes valuable outfielders that could get the job done for less than what Stanton is looking to earn. Overall, the Mets have a lot of potential value in Wheeler and d’Arnaud, and could solve their outfield problems in ways other than a trade for Stanton.
No way. Like Metsense said, I’d pay three 10M$ OF and their offense before Stanton at 30M$. Emptying the now flourishing farm system doesn’t wash with me.
Imagine: Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Montero, and Syndergaard as the rotation.
Chris F…I’m in agreement with you 100%…the name of the game is pitching and in a year or two the Mets will have it…get a CF by free agency next year and a corner outfielder and the Mets should be in good shape…
Good pitching will always keep you in the game. Good defense will make the pitching even better. Depth is more important than one superstar. Tieing up money in one player is putting all your eggs in one basket. Playing an above average player at each position, offensively and defensively, should be the goal. Was Santana worth his contract? What about Bay? What about Perez? ALL above 13M annually. I would almost never sign a compensation free agent and give up the first round money and mess up my draft budget for that year. A winning team in NY will fill the stands everday. It is about the team,
Not the player.
As I been saying for a while, it makes no sense for the Mets to upgrade the offense with Stanton at the expense of the pitching. We are already seeing what the Mets pitching is after Niese and Harvey. That means that the last thing the Mets can afford to give up is starting pitching.
A possible future rotation of Niese, Harvey, Wheeler, Montero, Matz/Tapia/Mateo/Mejia/Syndergaard is just to much go give up on for just one player. You make those kinds of trades when you as a team are only one player away. Kind of what the Nats did when they traded for Gio Gonzalez and the Braves trade for Upton.
The Mets are many players away and the best way to address it is via free agency, smart drafting and development.
The Mets should look into trading Ike Davis once he get hot and replacing him with Lutz this year and Flores in 2014. Maybe they can use Ike + lesser pitching prospect like Familia/Fullmer in order to get a stud OF prospect ready for the ML?.
Now if that is not possible, what is wrong with bringing Beltran back next year on a 2 year contract? the Cards won’t re-sign him because they have Taveras ready to take over.
Duda LF, DD in CF, Beltran in RF. Lets not forget that the Mets have around 40M coming off the books so they can potentially sign not only Beltran to a 2 year 26/30M and Shin-Soo Choo to a 5 year 75M? But think about it. This is possible with the money the Mets have coming off the books. Duda plays 1B in this case, Flores platoons at 2B and Lutz comes off the bench.
Tejada
Murphy/Flores
Wright
Duda 1B
Beltran
Choo LF/RF
D’Arnaud/Buck
DD
And get Rodney as the closer while they are at it. That is doable with the money coming off.
Luckily I think that Texas is going to be willing to overpay a package like olt and profar could be in the works. Hopefully they take Stanton before Alderson gets any ideas.
Agh. … I hope the Mets keep the future Battery and don’t get hng up in over-paying for Stanton. It is all about the pitching…..
Agh. … I hope the Mets keep the future Battery and don’t get hng up in over-paying for Stanton. It is all about the pitching…..
Wait … y’all mean you wouldn’t trade a minor league catcher that’s been on the DL for extended time periods each of the last few years, and a guy that hasn’t been able to control his pitching slot in AAA … for a guy that is being mentioned as an inner circle HOF player?
Look at Stanton again; his accomplishments are getting mentioned in the same breath as the five or six greatest ball players *ever*. Against that, you are measuring some what-ifs against proven ML star talent, at a position of weakness.
You can only start five pitchers and Wheeler doesn’t absolutely have to be one of them. Maybe you missed it, but you have a catcher that just hit his 7th HR playing at Citi right now (obtw, he threw out a baserunner). You have Plawecki, who just might turn out to be better than D’Arnaud. For Pete’s sake, your #4 hitter is currently banging the ball at a .173 pace and can’t hit lefties.
Trade from strength to fill a weakness. All day. All day long I trade for Stanton. And if you can’t frigging afford to pick up the best player in baseball, then stop farking around and sell the team to an owner that can’t do so.
The Mets would get Stanton for 3 years max and then probably loose him to free agency. They could have d’Arnaud and Wheeler for six years not to mention that we could more easily sign them to a contract extension that would be cheaper. Also the Mets offense hasn’t been that much of a weakness the weaknesses remain in the rotation and bullpen. The outfield is a big hole, but that could be fixed for cheaper than trading your whole farm system away and paying someone 200 million dollars.
And why would that be? Why be defeated before you even attempt to make the move?
Trade for him only on the basis of him signing a long term contract. Give him the raise he deserves today and start the clock immediately.
And to that ends, trading away Wheeler and D’Arnaud is not “your whole farm system”. I would say that as of this moment, Montero and Sondergaard might be as valuable as Wheeler, and Plawecki might well be as good as D’Arnaud.
It would likely take more than just Wheeler and d’Arnaud to get Stanton. The Rangers are likely to start with a package Profar/Olt/Grimm/Gallo/Odor yet the Marlins will probably want more. Snydergaard and Flores or Montero might be involved. A trade for Stanton would likely take most of what Alderson has developed for the past 3 years.
Exactly right, and net 10 more HR per year than Ike and not much else. Yes, Stanton is amazing, but emptying the store to get him and a haul of B-grade prospects doesn’t sit with me. Three weeks in, and he doesn’t have a HR yet, and batting <.200 I don't believe.
Spencer is Stanton currently looking for a mating partner? Do you have this knowledge?????
Not so sure about that; the Marlins dropped Reyes AND Buerhle AND Johnson for what I see as less than Wheeler and D’Arnaud.
The whole stack of what Toronto gave them was a bunch of magic beans. Some of it might turn out, but probably not. In terms of “future contract obligations”, well, the Reyes contract is roughly half of what some team will have to pay Stanton.
Yeah, I don’t think any team is going to pony up a whole, huge lot more than two top 15 prospects. And if it gets to that, then you say no. But the whole point of this thread is whether or not you’d trade the catcher and pitcher.
Yep. All day.
Hey! Glad to see someone else on this site who would trade for Stanton. I would actually try to add more players to both side of the deal and try to make it a blockbuster, which makes it harder for us to analyze because with many moving parts it’s hard to really identify who is being traded for whom. (see Blue Jays-Marlins)
While some Met fans are saying that Wheeler/D’arnaud are too much for Stanton, I would think that most non-Mets fans would say that Wheeler/D’arnaud would not be enough for Stanton and that they could do better from another team.
200 million dollars contracts are always foolish in the baseball sense, but if there’s a guy you give that contract to, it’s a guy who would be still in the mid-20’s, not a guy like Pujols or A-rod in their 30’s.
200 MM is a drop in the proverbial bucket. Stanton’s age 25 to age 35 seasons are worth something on the order of $300MM.
We are talking about a guy that plays good defense, has never given anyone any real trouble, and by time he is eligible to be a free agent, it’s not inconceivable that he will have over 250 HRs and have just turned 26. Frame of reference? The Kid hit 506 HRs between his 23rd and 37th birthdays.
What is that player “worth”? This is among the most limited creatures in sports – a player with an established HOF track that hasn’t hit his 23rd birthday. It’s laughable that anyone here would think that D’Arnaud and Wheeler aren’t the equal in value for him.
I don’t quite understand. You proclaim Stanton to potentially be worth $300 million.. and yet you consider two lottery tickets equivalent worth? You bashed and pointed out the flaws of Wheeler/D’arnaud just a couple posts above this.
Minor leagues players, no matter how great they are, have to be discounted because of the huge bust potential. Considering that the Rays once got Kazmir for Zambrano and that Washington got Ramos for Matt Capps, it would behoove me if some team didn’t offer 1-2 young Major league players plus 1-2 prospects, or 3-4 prospects from some team out there.
If I were the Marlins and the Mets called me, I would start by asking for Harvey, one of Wheeler/D’arnaud, and at least someone else from the top 10.
You’ll never go poor understimating the idiocy & frugality of the Florida Marlins…
“If I were the Marlins and the Mets called me, I would start by asking for Harvey, one of Wheeler/D’arnaud, and at least someone else from the top 10.”
And if I were Sandy, I’d hang up the phone at Harvey.
Harvey wouldn’t even be discussed if I were Sandy.
Right. And continuing to play the Marlins GM, I would go find the equivalent of Harvey or some other young stud like him in the other 28 ballclubs.
The point is that the Marlins don’t have to give anything into the Mets when they can just go ask for a similar package elsewhere and not have to deal within the division.
The idea hat bthe Marlins don’t want to trade in their division????—Ludicrous!!!!!
The top two places for Ex-Marlins would be The Mets and Phils—-tow big market teams with an expansive Fan Base—those fans stream to The Ballpark in Miami 12-15 times per year (each team)…..every year!
I can see where it wasn’t clear what I was trying to get across. My last sentence was meant to discredit anyone that wouldn’t trade our two top prospects for a guy already being mentioned as inner circle HOF players.
(OTOH, any trade that starts off with Harvey probably ends right there. You *might* get another player, but keep in mind that Harvey gives you as much contract value as nearly any player in the ML not named Trout, Harper or Strasburg. IMHO, right now those are the only four players you simply cannot trade.)
Ok. So we’re both on the same page on trading for Stanton.
I also think that the way Harvey has performed this season along with Stanton’s struggles, it has actually put him ahead of Stanton in value because Harvey has 5 years of control after this year, with 2 more being the min, while Stanton only has 3 more.
But im just trying to illustrate the point that the Marlins aren’t going to trade him for purely lottery tickets(unless they get 4+ of them) when other teams are also probably willing to offer a young kid with some Major league experience plus prospects.
^ p’raps. OTOH, you’ve got small sample sizes on both Stanton and Harvey this year. We’ll see.
Take a look at this my friends,
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/04/stark-on-shields-stanton-masterson-fowler.html
Interesting, but hard to assess. Is a rival genuine? Does a rival have a biased stake in it?
Regardless, theres not a chance Id spin off these guys who play critical positions that are hard to replace and who will be controlled for quite a few years for a guy who albeit will hit a lot of HR. If he gets into the Hall eventually (and we need another decade to even begin thinking it), that wont guarantee the Mets become closer to a WS ring (I know we disagree here Name; I believe the only reason (besides profits) to play pro sports is to win a championship, anything less is a failed season). Just ask the Marlins what 35 HR has gotten them in the last 3 years. The more HR he hits, the worst they finish. Leveraging out on his projected salary to sign him long term will severely prune the other options and cost dearly in people that we will need to be competitive.
The Marlins are losing games because Giancarlo is hitting home runs? Possibly the most non-nonsensical comment I have read in a while.
What you are suggesting we “spin off” are a bunch of projects that haven’t yet completed a dominating season in the minor leagues. Both come from a position of organizational strength.
I would quickly point out that the guy you are trading for, are approximately the same age as the two you are giving up. One of the things “we will need to be competitive” might be thought of as a serious, middle of the order hitter; a guy that hits lefties and righties, that puts legitimate fear into the opposition, that changes the way the opponent handles his outlook.
Each his own.
That only matters if there are real threats elsewhere. I was not saying HRs was leading to losing, just that no matter how many he hits does not translate to winning. He’s an ok defender, no base stealing threat, high strike out, 120-130 GP, 35 HR hitter. Everyone gets his HR potential. All you need to do is look around to see huge contracts on power hitters whose teams are no particular threats. 1 ace (Harvey) does not a staff make. Until the Mets are strong up the spine, I wouldnt be all that fascinated with a corner OF no matter how many HR he hits. As you say though, there are different ways, and to each their own.
I suppose that can sum up Stanton … if you wanted to ignore 22-23 year olds that gather 70 BBs and have a OBP in excess of 360 … or generate 60 doubles over two years … as a guy that only hits HRs.
Or if you want to consider his 2012 defense as an “ok” defender.
He’s generated nearly 10 WAR before his 24th birthday; you might not get 10 WAR out of Wheeler (5+ ERA in AAA) or TDA (fourth injury in three years?) in their entire careers.
I do believe you are basically correct on one point, and that’s this: allowing any team sport to concentrate its spending too narrowly ignores the plentiful evidence in favor of diversification.
Stanton as a great player is not the least bit lost on me. The thing is, IMO, we have much greater needs than the problems he solves, within a time frame of being competitive. Bringing him on will no doubt cost the Mets 20-25% of the player salary budget. There are a lot of needs to fill. If this were in the last piece or two of the puzzle, I wouldnt hesitate. But the Mets have a long way to go, and my preference is always building from C, Ss, 2B, CF and (always) pitching first.
Considering that the Mets have only 25 million guaranteed(Wright/Niese) plus ~15 mil in 2nd year arbitration (Ike/Murphy/Parnell/Gee) plus ~5 mil in 1st year arbitration (Duda/Baxter/Turner/Tejada) and add in some min salary players which equates to around 50-55 mil so money shouldn’t be an issue.
The last 2 years were set up so that we could shed expensive contracts and have money to spend after 2014.
Im glad we agree on at least one thing.