I wrote last Saturday about the draft and selected a pretty auspicious group of players to be joining the Metropolitan ranks. With my analysis the Mets would have come away with three college bats and a talented high school pitcher. You’ll recall that I thought the Mets could come away with:
- Hunter Renfroe, OF [Mississippi State, Junior] (Drafted: 13, San Diego Padres)
- Michael Lorenzen, OF [Cal State Fullerton, Junior] (Drafted: 38, Cincinnati Reds)
- Andrew Knapp, C [California, Junior] (Drafted: 53, Philadelphia Phillies)
- Andrew Church, RHP/OF [Palo Verde HS] (Drafted: 48, New York Mets)
On the one hand, it looks like I was good at picking out talent. On the other it looks like the mock drafts I was looking through had these players going (for the most part) later than they did. Time to review who the Mets actually got:
Round 1:
Winners: I love this round for Pittsburgh. They get the player that I pegged as the top offensive player in this draft and a catcher who I think will be an impact hitter with good defense. It’s hard to dislike the Yankees round but I think if one team wound up with some easy success it was the Pirates.
Pick #11: Dominic Smith, 1B, [Juniper Serra HS]
Scouting: I have heard at least one mention that Smith has the “Best bat of any high school hitter in the draft.” That would put him ahead of players I would have been more happy with (like Clint Frazier or Austin Meadows). He’s a PLUS defender at first and can play a little outfield. He also boasts a 92 MPH fastball. At 6’0” and 185 does he is on the small side for typical first basemen, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be a plus defender anywhere else on the field. His hitting mechanics are good and he should get on base and drive the ball, but that might wind up being doubles rather than homers with his more modest frame.
After Digesting: I don’t like this pick but I can’t hate it. The talent is there and the upside is huge. I can’t help but think the Mets would be better off with DJ Peterson (Drafted 12th) or Hunter Renfroe (Drafted 13th) who might be able to support the big league club by the end of 2014. The thing that worries me most about Smith is not if he’ll hit. I worry if he’ll hit with enough power to justify his position. Right now he seems like a more talented Jayce Boyd. He’s 17 and will probably start in the APP or GCL when he does sign. Signing is not a foregone conclusion as Smith could honor his commitment to USC and make the pick look even worse.
Round 2:
Winners: As they are the Mariners I’ll imagine that once they reach Safeco they will flounder but I like this round for Seattle. They got Austin Wilson who I had pegged as first-round talent. This is the pick I think the Mets will come away regretting.
Pick #48: Andrew Church, RHSP, [Basic HS]
Scouting: Church sits in the low 90s and could probably top out at 95 if he puts on some muscle. He has good repeatable mechanics and a PLUS curveball that should see him breeze through Rookie Ball and Low-A. He’s projected as a mid-rotation starter which could work well for the Mets and being from high school doesn’t add him to the log-jam of pitchers the Mets have in the system.
After Digesting: I hate this pick. You can never have too much pitching, true, but you needed to take advantage of the wealth of college outfielders in this draft. There are still some players on the board but the Mets took high upside and mediocre upside and NOTHING that will be ready to help the organization before Sandy Alderson moves on. I thought you suggested the Mets draft Church? Yes, I did… at #84! Perhaps Alderson got his numbers backwards.
Day 2?:
What I Am Hoping For: I don’t know… I’m already disappointed in the second round selection and think Alderson wasted a deep draft for his biggest need position. I guess I’m hoping for a surprise to cheer me up.
If it were me drafting the Mets would have Hunter Renfroe AND Austin Wilson right now.
There is a reason why the Mets have only won 2 WS in their history. They always seem to fire the good baseball people and hire the idiots who can’t seem to make sense. I have never been so disappointed in a front office as I am today. Kind of wondering why these guys are or were highly regarded for?
I don’t know if I blame Alderson and Co. for the draft. I mean… I’d bet good money that Church was a under-cap signee and that the Mets wanted more cap room for these next two picks. With that said, you don’t look to save this cap space when the last of the elite college OFers was still available. I would be calling the draft a win if we took Dominic Smith 11th and Austin Wilson 48th. My negative feelings surround the Mets being “creative” when there was an obvious answer in front of their faces.
I mentioned this elsewhere, but will repeat:
The Mets FO went on record as saying they could basically “afford” to go after HS talent because their organizational depth is better. The Cards – with the some of the deepest talent in the minors and the best record in baseball – took a second round pick well after ours that they believe will be in the majors by 2015 at the latest.
Has this organization so concentrated on having a “funnel” that they’ve lost track of the idea of winning games at Citifield? We’re so concentrated on “developing” players and “building” a minor league system that now we’re looking at playing GDmd Justin Turner at LF because Lucas Duda has a tight hammy.
Just consider the mental gymnastics you have to through, to
1> be still playing Ike Davis at 1B
2> be playing Lucas Duda in LF
3> and have to consider playing Justin Turner for the first time at LF …
When you haven’t really given any of the players at AAA – most of whom can, you know, actually play the OF – a true shot at Citi.
WTH are we doing here?
with apologies for my foul mouth, btw. Just a little frustrated.
Don’t apologize!
You don’t just rant, but rather, as usual, present a coherent critique.
We all feel your frustration.
I don’t hate the Dominic Smith pick but…REALLY? CHURCH OVER WILSON? There’s no effin’ way Church has higher upside…
Just 6 weeks in at A ball and he is hitting .160 w no homers.
I was hoping we’d see some signs of power especially driving the ball to the gaps. Rough start.