The Dodgers are a team in a very different place than the Mets. With Clayton Kershaw hitting his prime, an expensive roster that boasts Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Yasiel Puig this is a team that needs to make moves to win NOW. The Mets, on the other hand, are a team that needs to make some moves to get better so they can start to win SOON.
The Dodgers Need:
You have Mark Ellis ($5 Mil Option), Juan Uribe (Pending Free Agent), Skip Schumaker (Pending Free Agent) and Michael Young (Pending Free Agent) manning second and third. The Dodgers will be in the market for those positions and should be looking at adding some offensive pop as they have been lacking there in recent years.
The Mets Need:
Among other things, the Mets need to find a solution to add offense to their outfield. They will have Juan Lagares and Matt Den Dekker manning one of the outfield spots (probably center) to some degree. They will likely also be the #8 hitters on the team when they are in the lineup. They also have Eric Young Jr. who could start in left but would be better suited to being the 4th outfielder and pinch hitter/runner for late-inning leadoff duties. This means the Mets need one and would like two outfielders to come to the team either by trade or free agency.
The Dodgers Have:
- Matt Kemp ($21 Mil in 2014) – Kemp has had his share of injury problems which is the only reason he appears on lists as a trade candidate. The Mets (and other teams) will be willing to take on a $20 Mil per year guy who happens to only be 29 even with the high risk of injury. He is a bonafide 30/30 threat who could sit at #3 in the Met batting order until 2019 when his large contract expires.
- Carl Crawford ($20.5 Mil in 2014) – Unlike Kemp the Dodgers would need to be willing to take a loss on Crawford. They would probably look at only getting a B-Level prospect AND having to pay 50% (or more) of his contract. This isn’t to say that Crawford is bad but his injury risk and style of play add up to a likely injury and Crawford is not the player that signed that silly contract with Boston some years ago.
- Andre Ethier ($15.5 Mil in 2014) – I am of the opinion that there is no circumstance that the Mets should be willing to trade prospects for Ethier or take on more than $5 Mil of his salary. He isn’t a consistent enough hitter and his cost is very high. I think that the Dodgers are best off keeping him and using his versatile glove to make up for whomever else is traded.
- Yasiel Puig ($3.75 Mil in 2014) – Listed here only because he’s one of 5 outfielders who the Dodgers could have slated to start in their 2014 outfield. Puig’s future is 100% with the Dodgers.
- Joc Pederson (Minimum) – Pederson had a very good year in AA where he upped his prospect stock pretty greatly.
The Mets Have:
- Daniel Murphy (Final Arbitration) – Murphy has proven he can be an adequate defensive second baseman while also being a Top 10 offensive second baseman. He’s a consistent hitter that I like having hitting second in the Met lineup, but also someone other teams might want for theirs.
- Wilmer Flores (Minimum) – Flores hasn’t yet proven himself in the majors but his numbers in the minors and Age still tell me that he will become a solid MLB performer and that he could be an All Star offensively. The Dodgers are more likely to want Murphy because his bat is much more proven but if they are more into Flores I wouldn’t blame them.
- Josh Satin (Minimum) – Satin FINALLY got his opportunity in 2013 and made the most of it (making many Met fans say, “Ike who?”). He happens to play 1st base, 2nd base and 3rd base and the Dodgers could be looking to add insurance on whomever they trade for as a backup at multiple positions.
- Justin Turner (Final Arbitration) – Same as with Satin but add that he can sort of play short stop in a pinch.
An Example:
The Mets Trade:
- Daniel Murphy
- Justin Turner
- Michael Fulmer
The Dodgers Trade:
- Matt Kemp (Paying nothing)
- Joc Pederson
- Dee Gordon
The Dodgers get some proven commodities that can help their team right away and a prospect pitcher to stock their partially depleted farm and the Mets get (potentially) two starting outfielders for 2014 and beyond. The Mets wind up with only $15 Mil left on the 2014 budget but at least they’ve solved a couple of their problems (with the added bonus of the “Change of Scenery” wild card of Dee Gordon). The Dodgers are likely to push heavily to trade Ethier instead of Kemp but I would not even broach negotiations with the Dodgers unless they covered about 75% of his remaining contract.
The Dodgers will go right over the 189 million dollar cut off and will sign Robinson Cano to play second base. They have that 6 billion dollar+ deal with Fox and will let their FA’s walk. Beckett comes back for his final year of his contract and you can bet he’ll pitch his heart for a new contract. I wonder how much revenue did the Dodgers earn drawing over 3.7 million fans at home and hosting several playoff games. That alone pays for their payroll.
If Crawford had any chance of returning to most of what he was with Tampa, I’d back him patrolling the luscious outfields of Citi Field. But his numbers aren’t even remotely close, and he’s already 32 with a massive contract. Sad to say, but no.
Matt Kemp could be very appealing. His numbers at the plate are ridiculous and he’s just fine with the glove. His injury history makes him a good match for the Mets, who could handcuff Kemp with EY Jr. or DD. The only problem is that the other new outfielder must be solid in his own right.
If Ethier’s wearing blue and orange, it’d better be with boat loads of money and a one-way ticket for JV1 or some other useless part.
Sign me up for Puig. Pederson too, although he’d probably need more seasoning in AA.
I think the author just listed Puig because he was and is part of the starting outfielders the Dodgers have. Puig isn’t going anywhere.
Pete is correct. Just demonstrating having 5 players for 3 positions.
What crazy world do u live in? The dodgers trade a superstar outfielder, a top outfield prospect and a young shortstop for Justin pie in your face turner, Murphy, and a pitching prospect that was injured all year that is still on class a? Sign me up! We should trade duda to the sox for pedroia while we r at it to cover second! Haaaaaaa
Heh. +1
Will ignore the injuries and price tag for Kemp and focus on the smallest part of the article. The point was that LA has too many OFs and needs 2b/3b and the mets are a match.
If I’m the Dodgers, the option on Ellis is an easy pickup for me. B-R has him at 5.5 WAR over the last 2 years (3.5 for murphy) and Fangraph has him at 4.5 WAR over murphy’s 4.3 WAR (although Murphy’s baserunning this year was gold). So they have 2b covered.
As for 3b, they could try to resign Uribe as I don’t see anyone else bidding on Uribe’s 2013 season. If they wanted to go the trade route I would think that Headley could be a target for them. They might need a 3rd team to get a deal done by trading Ethier to shed some money. The Mets may have an opportunity to be that 3rd team if they are willing to pay $10-12 million. They could also need the 3rd team to get the prospects that SD wants.
Murphy for Kemp? Love it!
Just give me pederson, van slyke and Gordon for Murphy and I will be happy
Your example, and I realize it is only an example, could at least start the conversation. The Dodgers would want to substitute Ethier for Kemp, and want a more established “A” pitcher but I think the real key in this example is obtaining Pederson. The Dodgers have the surplus and the Mets can fill the Dodger needs.
To Metsense. I don’t think the Dodgers will trade either Ethier or Kemp. The Dodgers will get Beckett back and will put him as the number 3 starter. Being in final year of his contract, he’ll be pitching for a new free agent contract. So I expect Beckett to put decent numbers up next season.
Mets – “Murphy, Turner and Fulmer for Kemp, Pederson and Gordon.”
Dodgers – “Yeah right, maybe Ethier and Gordon.”
Mets – “Ethier, Pederson and Gordon if you eat X% of Ethiers contract.”
Dodgers – “You gotta sweeten the pot for us to consider that.”
Mets – “How about Montero in place of Fulmer.”
Dodgers – “Let us get back to you.”
One, the Mets proposed budget is a joke. There’s $60MM coming off the books before arb raises, according to Cot’s. Even with a generous $20MM in arb raises, and no other roster moves to alleviate some of the arb raises, we are at $40MM for upgrades. Then add in the expected $25MM every team is supposed to receive for next year in additional TV revenue, and you’re at $65MM. Easily. Yet they keep crying poor and selling nonsense like we don’t have the internet and common sense.
As for the Dodgers., they do match up well. I don’t believe they move any of the high end prospects until they bow out of the David Price sweepstakes. They have some exciting arms that could pair with Pederson to make an enticing offer to the Rays. It might not be enough, so once they bow out of that sweepstakes, the Mets can come calling. I like Pederson enough to do him straight up for Murphy, but the Mets can rightfully ask for more. Kemp’s increasingly chronic injuries are too worrisome, and unless the Dodgers are paying a huge chunk, I’d pass on him. Ethier is healthier, with lower upside, and should be able to be acquired, but the Dodgers would need to pick up a chunk of that contract as well. So yes, while we match up, the deal would require some creativity and ingenuity.
To Hank. Using your argument. If Kemp is increasingly vulnerable to injuries then why would the Dodgers trade Ethier? Doesn’t Ethier become more valuable to the Dodgers in case Kemp is not ready in spring training? Or has another significant injury?
With 2 huge loans totaling over 600 million dollars due in 2014 I don’t think the additional 25 million is going to help the Wilpons in their quest for re-financing those 2 loans. Nor will they apply that additional income to payroll. As I have state on numerous times ALL 30 major league teams will receive that additonal 25 million dollars Hank. It only takes 1 team to sign that free agent SA may be secretly be coveting. Just look at the White Sox’s for example pursuing Abreu for 68 million dollars.
To Hank. Using your argument. If Kemp is increasingly vulnerable to injuries then why would the Dodgers trade Ethier? Doesn’t Ethier become more valuable to the Dodgers in case Kemp is not ready in spring training? Or has another significant injury?
With 2 huge loans totaling over 600 million dollars due in 2014 I don’t think the additional 25 million is going to help the Wilpons in their quest for re-financing those 2 loans. Nor will they apply that additional income to payroll. As I have state on numerous times ALL 30 major league teams will receive that additonal 25 million dollars Hank. It only takes 1 team to sign that free agent SA may be secretly be coveting. Just look at the White Sox’s for example pursuing Abreu for 68 million dollars.
I don’t see how this is an even trade. Mets fans LOVE this. Dodgers fans can’t see how this puts the team over the top. Why would an organization give up their best player (even with an injury plagued season) and his most likely replacement for that cast of characters.
From LA, No thank you.
The Dodgers payroll sits at 160 million already before signing any free agents or arbitration hearings. So I don’t think they are afraid of going over the 189 salary cap. Kershaw will get 17 to 20 million. Coupled that with their Arb. players will put them at about 190. Cap issues become irrelevant when you have local television deals in the billions. The 50 million from the new T.V. contracts is just a drop in the bucket for L.A.. When you average 45,0000 fans at home pinching pennies is not on your shopping list.
The Mets should NOT trade Daniel Murphy, period! Other than Wright, he has been the only consistent hitter on the entire club. Keep Murphy! Great work ethic, too.
Daniel Murphy is a sort-of good player, but he will not get you Matt Kemp and Joc Pederson. He might get you one of the Kemp brothers from Spandau Ballet, and former Boston Bruin Barry Pederson. But I’m not sure the Mets need them.
Is this a joke? The Dodgers would be idiotic to trade Kemp when his value is basically at its lowest and there’s no way that they would trade a guy who was league MVP-quality in 2011 for an average 2B, a utility guy, and an A-ball pitcher coming off injury. Also, why do you list Murphy and Turner as “Final Arbitration”? Murphy is an Arb2 in 2014 and Turner is an Arb1.
Oh, and apparently I stopped reading after seeing Kemp’s name because I didn’t even realize that you suggested that the Dodgers could throw in Gordon and Pederson to make the trade that much more absurd.
Stacker, don’t worry. The Dodgers would NEVER entertain such offer. Maybe they would give up Ethier and keep Pederson to replace Ethier in the depth. Everyone thinks they cannot afford Kemp all of a sudden, and I wonder where that came from.
Problem is, we’re Mets fans and look at it from a Mets point of view. Truth is, Mets need to add a major player, but don’t have major pieces to offer.
Looks like lots of good comments.
I think people need to look past suggested trades as they are rarely the point of anything I write. The point here was that the Dodgers might look to move on from Ellis and Uribe and that Flores and Murphy might be fits while the Dodgers have Puig, Kemp, Crawford, Ethier and Pederson to fill 3 outfield spots and the Mets need OFs. People get wrapped up in the logisitics of suggested offers.
Guys,
It was an example.
I don’t, and I don’t think the Dodgers, would view Murphy as an upgrade to Ellis. About the only thing that Murphy has on Ellis is age, and an extra year of control on his contract.
And a team that wants to win NOW doesn’t seem like a great fit for Flores either.
If we do trade with the Dodgers, it would be because we want something that they have rather than them wanting a player that we have.
I like the idea of getting Kemp. I think it will take a little more to pry him from the Dodgers though even if the Mets pick up his salary. If they gets him and sign a Free agent outfielder (I like Ellsbury) then the Mets might have a decent lineup. Flores need a spot and a shot. Stick him at second and lets see what he can do.
If the Mets got Kemp AND Ellsbury you’d be looking at a $120 Payroll and I doubt Alderson goes that high. I wish he’d consider it.
I think that you will only add 1 “Star” outfielder.
I pray that Alderson knows that Ethier doesn’t qualify as a star
@ David. For some reasons I didn’t put the numbers together. I didn’t realize how high that would be. Either way need to get one and at least another consistent outfielder.Just your opinion on one other thing. I saw Furcal is a FA. I know he was hurt but maybe a cheap stopgap.
Reports are that the dodgers signed middle infielder Alexander Guerro from Cuba so there does not exist a match any longer
Thing about Guerrero compared to the others is he is not lighting it up in Cuba. Think he more hype with the success of some of the recent stars
He signed for 4/$28, so he is polished enough to start in the big leagues next year which means they have no need for another middle infielder
I was a big Dodgers Mets trade advocate until I read about Kemp’s ankle. If I’m taking a shot on an OF with an injury history, it’s Jose Bautista. He’s a little older, but a much better contract @and you’d only be committing to two years.
Jose Bautista is an interesting thought too but I think Kemp is the far better player
Scott I agree Bautista is a better fit but you still need men to get on base consistently for it to work. Add Reyes and it solves two problems in one shot. Move Tejada to second and there’s your DP tandem. Send Murphy, Duda or Davis (Toronto decides), Flores, and 2 high prospects from a list the Mets provide to the Blue Jays.
Pete,
I’m all for that deal, as long as Syndergaard isn’t one of the two prospects. I don’t want to trade Puello either, but he makes the most sense in a Bautista deal, possibly also Plawecki.
I could also live with a trade that nets Pederson for Murph or Flores (whichever one isn’t in the Bautista deal) and starting EY at 2b, while batting him leadoff. Sign Stephen Drew as a lefty bat, instead of adding Reyes to the Bautista deal, bring in a veteran RH hitting platoon OF until Pederson is ready.
I agree it’s a fair deal for both teams. In order to get a player of value you have to give up something of value or the deal doesn’t make sense.