I decided to walk down the hallowed halls of what might have been had we scouted better or made better decisions of draft day. I can’t say much about 2013 just yet but I’ll be looking at picks starting in 2012 and looking at who the “Met Masterminds” may have missed the boat on.
2012
Who We Got:
- Gavin Cecchini, SS (Mediocre Numbers at A-)
- Kevin Plawecki, C (Breakout performance in A and A+)
- Matt Reynolds,3B/SS (Poor numbers at A+)
Who We COULD HAVE Gotten:
- Mike Wacha, SP (Currently looking dominant in the majors)
- Plawecki looks pretty good…
- Alex Wood, SP (Current starter for the Braves)
2011
Who We Got:
- Brandon Nimmo, OF (Up and down year at A)
- Michael Fulmer, SP (Injury plagued 2013)
- Cory Mazzoni, SP (Mediocre year at AA)
Who We COULD HAVE Gotten:
- Jose Fernandez, SP (Likely ROY and Ace of Marlins)
- Nobody stands out…
- Austin Hedges, C (Currently in the Top 100 Prospects)
2010
Who We Got:
- Matt Harvey, SP (Cy Young candidate before Tommy John)
- Blake Forsythe, C (Forgettable year at AA)
- Cory Vaughn, OF (Up and down year at AA, and he’s old)
Who We COULD HAVE Gotten:
- Few people would regret this…
- Josh Rutledge, SS (Above replacement level SS)
- Garin Cecchini, SS (Breakout year at A+ and AA)
2009
Who We Got:
- Steven Matz, SP (Very promising year at A)
- Robbie Shields, SS (Organizational filler)
- Darrell Ceciliani, OF (A 5th OF at best)
Who We COULD HAVE Gotten:
- Patrick Corbin, SP (Ace of the Diamondbacks)
- Jacob Marisnick, OF (Promising CF for Marlins)
- Brandon Belt, 1B (Breakout year in MLB for Giants)
2008
Who We Got:
- Ike Davis, 1B (Dismal year in MLB)
- Reese Havens, SS (Fallen off the radar in AAA)
- Brad Holt, SP (Gone and forgotten)
Who We COULD HAVE Gotten:
- Lance Lynn, SP (Pretty darn good Starting Pitcher)
- Danny Espinosa, SS (Terrible 2013 but pretty great before that)
- Jason Kipnis, OF (Yeah… that guy)
2007
Who We Got:
- Eddie Kunz, RP (Traded for Allan Dysktra)
- Nathan Vineyard, SP (Who?)
- Scott Moviel, RP (Gone and forgotten)
Who We COULD HAVE Gotten:
- Joshua Donaldson, 3B (Pretty solid MLB 3B)
- Jordan Zimmerman, SP (Pretty solid MLB starter)
- Zack Cozart, SS (A solid starting SS)
2006
Who We Got:
- Kevin Mulvey, SP (Part of the Johan Santana trade)
- Joe Smith, RP (Some memorable relief once upon a time)
- John Holdzkom, SP (Ummm…)
Who We COULD HAVE Gotten:
- Justin Masterson, SP (A pretty solid lefty starter)
- Chris Davis, 1B (We could sure use some of that power)
- Jeff Samardzija, SP (He’s amassed a couple Ks)
2005
Who We Got:
- Mike Pelfrey, SP (Some solid years)
- Hector Pellot, 2B (Former organizational fodder)
- Andrew Butera, C (Bullpen catcher somewhere… I think)
Who We COULD HAVE Gotten:
- Andrew McCutchen, OF (Yeah… HIM)
- Chris Getz, 2B (MLB second baseman)
- Douglas Fister, SP (Pretty good SP in the MLB)
You might notice, as I did that the Mets often handicapped themselves. They’d be looking at drafting only one or two players in the first four (if you include supplemental) rounds. It’s no question that this neglecting the draft has led to the years of obscurity as the team needed a farm and had none. The other truth is that most teams guess wrong and while they COULD have gotten McCutchen, Kipnis, Corbin and Wacha it proves that scouting is NOT a perfect science.
I looked back as far as 1993 and truthfully… the Mets don’t get their success through their own minors. The team for the past twenty years has gotten their success through trading and signing free agents. I would say that as a whole, Sandy Alderson has drafted better than Omar Minaya or Steve Phillips. Sure Cecchini looks like a massive stinker, but how much worse is that pick than most of these:
- 1993: Kirk Presley (8th Overall)
- 1994: Paul Wilson (1st Overall)
- 1995: Ryan Jaroncyk (18th Overall)
- 1996: Robert Stratton (13th Overall)
- 1997: Geoff Goetz (6th Overall)
- 1998: Jason Tyner (21st Overall)
- 1999: Neal Musser (73rd Overall)
- 2000: Billy Traber (16th Overall)
- 2001: Aaron Heilman (18th Overall)
- 2002: Scott Kazmir (15th Overall) [But REALLY… Victor Zambrano]
- 2003: Lastings Milledge (12th Overall)
- 2004: Philip Humber (3rd Overall)
- 2005: Michael Pelfrey (9th Overall)
- 2006: Kevin Mulvey (62nd Overall)
- 2007: Eddie Kunz (42nd Overall)
- 2008: Ike Davis (18th Overall)
- 2009: Steven Matz (72nd Overall)
- 2010: Matt Harvey (7th Overall) [The exception that proves the rule]
- 2011: Brandon Nimmo (13th Overall)
- 2012: Gavin Cecchini (12th Overall)
- 2013: Dominic Smith (11th Overall)
If the goal was to judge Met GM’s to other GM’s, perhaps you could look at the percentage of players that we could have drafted that turned out better than what we did pick.
Also, this doesn’t definitely say that Met GM’s are bad drafters; there are other factors at play. We could actually be really good drafts, but just very bad at developing them (choosing when to promote them).
If the goal was to dream, good job.
The goal was to look at Met GMs and how they’ve drafted. I’ve seen a lot of comments bashing Alderson’s drafts and I don’t think I can grade him worse than anyone in recent memory.
Ok. Just wanted to make it known that there are other factors at play that determines whether a player is deemed a success or not. Most of outside of the GM’s control, but there is one other big factor that the GM does control, which is when to promote a player.
Fernandez appears on the COULD HAVE gotten list because someone in the Marlins organization was brazen enough to want to call him up, a method that we saw fail multiple times under Minaya. In an alternate universe, Fernandez could have been called up next year and had a so-so debut.
That’s clearly a factor too.
I think the big thing is that the next time someone bemoans Cecchini, Nimmo or Smith as first rounders you could point to the previous GMs and ask “Who did it better?”
I guess that’s how one can justify staying sane. In all honestly, the real goal should be to the best in the game, and not to compare just within the organization. It’s like saying that he got the highest score in his class, but the score is still well below the average when you compare it to all other classes.
We’re grading on a curve and frankly… Alderson could still have some pretty quality names attached to his record by the end of 2015… if he lasts that long.
Mets got the wrong Cecchini
Mets got the wrong Cecchini.
Sorry for the double post.
It just seems that the Mets draft choices as a whole by their scouts don’t amount to much. What percentage of players drafted by the Mets reach the Major League level? Looking at your list do the Mets still have the same people in place handling the scouting department? Just think about it. The Miami Marlins whose ownership is despised (probably by all) has 2 World Series rings in 20 years of existence. The Mets…zero. Whether it’s true or not, the Mets seem to prefer to draft kids out of high school rather than the college senior who could have an impact sooner than later. Sometimes later never comes. It just seems to be a crap shot. Of the players you listed that the Mets could of taken,where were they ranked by the Mets?
It just makes me wonder how these failed players the mets drafted were ranked on other teams lists… I mean was Humber,Pelf, Kunz,Heilman,millage and the other scrubs all on the top of everyone’s list? There’s no way … The scouting could’ve been better by of course not … I understand every team blows some draft picks but c’mon there’s no way the mets front office did all they could to ensure a good pick … I mean 2006 and 2007 was a horrible draft for them … I mean not one impact player… It’s just a shame it really is
06 produced Daniel Murphy for the Mets. It also produced Joe Smith, who has become a pretty solid reliever for the Indians.
07 produced Dillon Gee and Lucas Duda.
Mets have not been known for hitting many home runs in the early rounds of the draft. Matt Harvey is the notable exception.
I believe upset fan said IMPACT player.
You missed Giancarlo Stanton who went 76th in 2007 and could have been picked with either of their 1st round picks….the ones wasted on relievers.
Mets also could have had Giolito and McCullers in 2012, both top 50 prospects right now.
You know why I missed it…
because he was listed as Mike Stanton LOL
LOL! That sure is one I wish they had back…it’s never okay to draft relievers in the first.
To clarify I meant 2006 was a wasted draft … Nothing towards joe smith .. Mighty fine reliever and I’m sure he’s a nice guy too but he was the only pick worth something by the mets that year … Each pick after was a bust … That’s absurd and unacceptable … You cannot tell me there was nothing they could do … This is why they have no depth with a few exceptions they drafted horribly .. It’s just u acceptable to me
I just looked at the 06 draft and it looks like the Mets were one of only 6 teams with at least 2 players drafted who have posted at least 7 bWAR so far(Smith and Murphy). I hardly call that unacceptable.
We also missed Allen Craig that year … We took Nathan Hedrick instead