Every year teams scramble to find the best men for the bullpen and every year it is a gamble for most of the bullpen members. The Mets’ bullpen has had its shares of problems over the past few years (especially 2012) although in 2013 it wasn’t that bad. Regardless there will still be a search for who the seven members of the Opening Day bullpen will be. Here are all the possible options and their odds of making the Opening Day roster:
Internal Major Leaguers:
Bobby Parnell:
Parnell has been the closer of the future since 2010 and he put it all together. Unfortunately his season was cut short with a neck injury and if it weren’t for the injury, he probably would have racked up 35+ saves. The only reason that he won’t make the Opening Day roster is if an unlikely trade occurs or his neck is still a problem.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 75%
Vic Black:
He is still technically a prospect and he showed that he could be the closer if Parnell is still down. He racked up an impressive save against the Reds and has shown great control after joining the Mets. There really isn’t any reason that he won’t make the Opening Day roster.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 99%
Jeurys Familia:
Still considered a top prospect in the Mets organization, Familia doesn’t have great control but he knows how to strike out hitters. Since his return from the bone chips in his elbow he has struggled, but he still should be considered to be a great middle-reliever for the Mets for the near future. He should make the club out of Spring Training, but if he continues his struggles then there is a slight chance his 2014 season will begin in Las Vegas or Binghamton.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 90%
Josh Edgin
Edgin had finally found his true form in late July but it was cut short because of a rib injury. He is effective against lefties and righties and should be considered for a one-out job. At 27, he is heading into his physical prime and the only reason he won’t start the season in the majors is if the Mets want him to pitch in the minors before he returns.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 80%
Scott Rice:
Probably one of the greatest stories this season, Rice was usually the leader in appearances. He should make the roster due to his great success against lefties. He does have a bit of injury risk because of his hernia surgery, but it really shouldn’t be a problem.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 80%
Gonzalez Germen:
He started his career out with a devastating loss to the Pirates, but quickly won the Mets fans’ hearts with an unhittable change-up. He did have a period from August 29th-September 17th where he had an ERA over eight. Terry Collins really enjoyed putting him in high-pressure situations and unless he gets injured, he will make the roster.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 99%
Carlos Torres :
This is where the bullpen starts to get interesting because Torres is considered a better long-reliever than a starter. Alderson and Collins both enjoy his versatility, but he is about a 50-50 split for next season because he may get outrighted to Triple-A for minor league depth.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 50%
Scott Atchison
It’s not often that a guy is age 38 and still arbitration-eligible yet that’s the situation that Atchison finds himself in. It remains a mystery whether or not he will make the roster, go to Triple-A, or be a quick throw-in for a trade.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 45%
Internal Minor Leaguers:
Jeff Walters: After a remarkable season in the minors, he should be considered for the majors this season. He is fairly old for a prospect, so there is limited time for him reach his peak in the majors. There would have to be a couple of injuries for him to make the major leagues, but don’t be surprised to see him in Queens midseason.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 5%
Jack Leathersich:
Leathersich strikes out everyone; unfortunately, he also walks plenty of batters which is a huge problem. He was an ace reliever in DOUBLE-A but an unreliable one in TRIPLE-A. There aren’t very good odds of him being on the Opening Day roster but he could be a September call-up.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 5%
Notable Mets Free Agent Options:
Tim Byrdak:
In 2011 and most of 2012, he was the ace LOOGY for the Mets. Now he is getting older and just doesn’t have the magic anymore; he didn’t pitch in any wins this year. While I do think he should be brought back for a bullpen coach role, he shouldn’t pitch again-especially for the Mets.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 0%
Pedro Feliciano:
It was nice to see him pitching to reminisce the great times. Unless he pitches in a winter league and dominates, there is no reason he should come back. He falls under the same category as Byrdak-he is a great guy at the end of his career.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 1%
LaTroy Hawkins
Hawkins had incredible season on so many levels; his age, his durability, and most important he helped the youngsters. He should definitely be considered for a 1-year deal. While it seems that he is being considered by the Mets, it remains unknown whether he will re-sign.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 70%
David Aardsma:
Double-Ardsma was excellent in stranding runners and recording one out, but his days of being an elite closer are likely over. I doubt the Mets will pursue him as there are a ton of better options.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 1%
Greg Burke:
There is absolutely no logical reason for re-signing the worst reliever on the team, but for some reason Alderson finds the need to pursue him. Hopefully the Rockies will sign him first. Unfortunately there is a very recognizable chance that he will be a Met next year.
Chance of being on the Opening Day roster: 20%
As the search for the seven members of the bullpen begins, options present themselves left and right. As a Mets fan, I can only hope that the right members are chosen by Alderson and Co.
I think you’re vastly underestimating the chance of Carlos Torres being there for Opening Day. He’s pretty much guaranteed a spot with the only question being if he’ll be in the rotation or the bullpen.
I hope you’re right about Byrdak and Feliciano.
I agree. There’s ZERO chance that Torres doesn’t make the Mets doesn’t start out the year on the Mets roster. He may not last the entire year, but the way he pitched last year he’s a lock for something.
I hope you’re wrong about Rice. He’s not an effective major league reliever and teams need to stop carrying LOOGY’s. Sadly, Rice’s job security came with Terry’s contract extension so he’ll be on the roster.
Agreed..I think Torres is gonna have a big role in 2014
Spring training should dictate if Leathersich fized his control or not…if he shows it, he could be Opening Day or soon thereafter.
Hawkins? Saw Gannon(?) projected him to get $5MM, so I am not so sure Met owners will want to go there.
Walters? Depends on whether what worked for him in AA will work in majors – why couldn’t he skip AAA and be on opening day roster instead of, say, the expensive Hawkins?
A lot centers on Parnell – if there is any real doubt he will be healthy, Hawkins may become a necessity. And of course, Hawkins’ age may cause him to want to sign with a club that really COULD win in 2014, so he may prefer to go elsewhere.
Locks are Torres, Parnell, Black, Rice and Edgin. I hope they resign Hawkins. Let German and Familia fight it out in ST for the final spot, with all of those young guys as arms that can transition in during the year or next year.
I’m looking forward to the BP and think it could be a team strength next year.
I don’t think Rice and Edgin are “locks” just because they don’t have the resumes to back it up, especially Edgin who’s been so inconsistent
Quick update: Greg Burke has thankfully signed with the Rockies
We never had a real strong bottom half of the bullpen,” Alderson said. “The key will be to have more arms, quality arms out there that we can rely on.” ESPN 10/4/13
Alderson recognizes that the bullpen needs an upgrade but fails to understand that the bullpen management needs a bigger upgrade.
The 2014 bullpen should start with Parnell, Black, Hawkins and Torres. All had FIP’s and ERA’s below the league average. Hawkins, a free agent, made $1M in 2013 and a one year under $2M would be reasonable. The other free agents, Aardsma, Byrdak, Feliciano and Fransisco should not be re signed to major league contracts. Atchison should be non tendered. That leaves three positions to upgrade. The Mets control Germen, Rice, Edgin and Familia,. I can see the Mets keeping two of these players. Germen and Rice have an inside track as they were near average. Leathersich, Walters, Hutchinson, Bradford, Kolarek, and Mazzoni all had impressive AA numbers and should be considered sometime in 2014. That leaves one reliever to upgrade. A veteran NRI should be able to fill that spot and with all that is coming up in the ranks I see no reason to spend money (except Hawkins) on any veteran free agent. Spend it on the Offense
I have to be honest, I highly doubt Atchison will be non-tendered because he could make league-minimum. However I do agree that zero money should be spent on relievers (except maybe Hawkins)
It really doesn’t matter who’s in there with TC burning through them.
I think the Mets should put pitchers such as Noah Syndergaard in their bullpen for Opening Day. Although he is a Minor League, and future Major League, starter, I think giving him some time in the bullpen would be a good time for him to pick up some valuable Major League experience.
Uhhhh, no way. Losing an extra year of control on him to allow him to get 20 days in the bullpen is not worth it. He’s far better served pitching as a starter in the minors. The only time you should really think about letting him pitch in the bullpen is in September.