I would be just as thrilled as the next Met fan if the team were to make a big splash in free agency and sign Shin-Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury, but let’s face it: Choo is not worth the Jayson Werth-type contract that Scott Boras is said to be seeking, and Ellsbury’s injury past and attached loss of a draft pick means he’s probably a no-go as well.
So then it comes time to look at the second-tier of available players. Curtis Granderson has been a name attached to the Mets, but I’m not so sure that Granderson’s value added to the team will be worth the price that he is said to be seeking.
The same can be said for Andre Ethier, a name who gets mentioned in trade discussions. I would love to bring Ethier to the Mets, but considering he’s basically a platoon player (check his splits) I’m not so keen about the 4-years/$71 million guaranteed left on his contract. If the Dodgers were willing to eat $20 million-plus on the contract, I’d consider pulling the trigger on a potential move.
This brings us to a player who I have looked at as a potential target for quite some time now –David Murphy, the outfielder from the Texas Rangers.
There’s a few things about Murphy that makes him a good fit for the Mets – for one, he will be cheap.
The reason he’s going to be cheap, is that he was atrocious in 2013, hitting .220/.272/.374, a major letdown from a strong .304/.380/.479 in 2012. But one glimpse at his .227 BABIP, and one quickly sees a player poised to make somewhat of a comeback in 2014.
Another reason Murphy will come cheap is because, he’s probably best suited for platoon duty. His .352 wOBA against righties is far superior to his .291 wOBA vs. lefties.
Unfortunately, this deficiency forces the Mets to go out and find a platoon partner for Murphy, who would be well-complemented by Corey Hart.
The ex-Brewer, who spent all of 2013 on the disabled list, has raked in his career against lefties, hitting them to the tune of a .385 wOBA, and his .343 wOBA against righties is good enough to even make him an everyday option should Murphy flounder as the lefty-half of the platoon.
For those concerned over Hart’s outfield defense should be comforted by his career -3.6 UZR in right field, although there are legitimate concerns about whether he’ll be able to even sustain this slightly-below-average defense on his surgically-repaired knee.
Of course, those concerns will likely lower the price that the Mets would have to pay to get Hart. With this arrangement, the Mets could have 3-4 WAR production in right field for under $10 million – roughly 35 – 45 percent of market value.
Now, let us turn our attention to left field, where the Mets may very well choose to stand pat with Eric Young Jr., but since that would be no fun, let me agree with Joel Sherman’s column in the New York Post, which advocates for an Ike Davis-for-Norichika Aoki swap[1].
As Sherman notes, Aoki is a high on-base guy who would provide speed and sub-par defense out of the leadoff spot. Basically, he’s Young, but he gets on base more often.
As much as I like Davis and want to see him succeed, I don’t think he’ll ever succeed in New York. Perhaps a change of scenery to a smaller market will do him good – just as getting him out of the lineup will benefit the Mets.
Steamer projects an Aoki-Lagares-Murphy/Hart-Young outfield to earn 8.2 WAR in 2014, which admittedly is not good – it would rank 8th in the NL in 2013 – is a cheap improvement over last year, when half of the outfield’s 7.0 WAR came from Marlon Byrd.
But it’s also important to keep some perspective. That same outfield, except with Choo instead of Murphy/Hart would only produce 7.4 WAR, according to Steamer, and with Ellsbury, 8.6 WAR.
The team can essentially get the same production, but at a fraction of the cost and without surrendering a second round draft pick.
That then frees up enough money to go out and sign Jhonny Peralta to play shortstop, fill out the starting rotation and bullpen, and secure some bench players who are actually useful to complete the team.
With this roster construction – and some luck – the Mets may very well find themselves on the brink of contention for the second wildcard in 2014, something that has been a long time coming.
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Joe Vasile is a play-by-play announcer for Widener Pride football and host of “Ball Four” on WTSR in Trenton. Follow him on twitter at @JoeVasilePBP.
Barring some real surprise, neither Choo nor Ellsbury will be a Met. I like Grandy though. Looking his spray chart over, a good lump of his Yankee Std HRs would leave Citi too. He’s got high profile and people will come to see him, even Yankee fans. Im good for 4/14 to bring him in. The good news is that the Mets become increasingly competitive and he will have a great perspective with recent post season experience. Here’s an added benefit: bringing in a person like Grandy sends the following message — its ok to be a Met. Right now DW is a career Met, so the perspective is a bit lost. Signing a big name FA is like a gravitational pull…others will follow. Aoki would be a good get, although the different reads are that he may or may not be available. Apparently Ike for Aoki is DOA. Aoki is a FA next year…maybe then is the time? Id be inclined to look at Rajai Davis for RF this off season. He’s come as a bargain for a couple years.
I’ve heard it’s going to take 3/45 to get Granderson. If that’s the cost, no, thank you.
I’ve heard 3/36
Im good for 14, but prob not 15. I think he can deliver on a 4 yr deal. But David, 3@12 would be a slam dunk. Knowing SA, he prob goes 3@10, and then he loses interest. Remember Pagan got 4@10, and Grandy is a lot better.
I’ve seen Granderson pegged at 3/36 + incentives
Also, I see the Davis-Aoki deal is probably going nowhere now, but reports are coming out that there are 4-5 teams interested in Davis, so perhaps some other LF or RF option that you can pencil in for 2.0 WAR coming back in a trade would be good as well.
Prospects
They won’t get any prospects of value in return for Davis, unless he’s part of a package or the opposing GM is dumb. I’d rather have production – in terms of a major league starting quality outfielder – than prospects. The time for trading guys for prospects is over unless you’re getting an absolute stud.
Free Agent OF Tiers:
Tier 1 – Shin-Soo Choo, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Nelson Cruz
Tier 2 – Carlos Beltran (NOT AN OPTION), Corey Hart, Marlon Byrd
Tier 3 – Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Jason Kubel
Sign Granderson, and Cruz try and trade Duda, Murphy, and prospects for pitching help rotation and pen, sign Peralta for SS. Stick with Ike at 1B move EYJ to 2B.
EY Jr. is not going to play 2B, even if Murphy is traded. Flores and Tejada would likely get a crack there before EY Jr. is even considered a possibility.
Don’t be blinded by the fact that EY won a SB crown like TC was.
Post all star break he had a .592 OPS. For comparison, Kirk had .615 OPS for the year and people couldn’t wait to get rid of him. Why do people continue to support EY?
Stolen bases (much like RBI) are shiny and he made a couple of nice diving catches?
Sorry … there is no WAY a guy one year removed from 80+ HR is going to turn down a qualifying offer for $14.1MM and take a 3/36 or even a 3/45. He’s an established 4 WAR guy, with elite power and a fair glove.
In order to get Curtis, the Mets will be paying him through his age 36 season, and he’s not taking much less than the $15MM he’s getting right now.
Curtis Granderson will get 4/56 minimum. Maybe it will take a little bit of incentive work, but that’s what its gonna take to get him. Some of it will get back loaded, enabling the team to get a pitcher this year, but that’s what it will take.
I agree. I am not willing to give Granderson that much money to age. Just remember Jason Bay.
except hes only posted a 24 WAR over 11 seasons. Bay aint no Grandy.
Valid, but that contract isn’t going to look so good in 4 years when Grandy is making tons of money and not producing like a 4 WAR player.
I’ve also been super wary of Grandy. The percentage of PA’s that end in a HR/BB/SO over the last 3 years is around 45%. That’s almost as much as Adam Dunn who usually boasts a percentage in the 50-55 range. At this point in his career he’s basically turned into an Adam Dunn that can field. I’ve watched him in 2012-13 and it looks like all he wants to do is hit HR’s and as a result he’s a .220-.240 hitter now. 200 strikeout potential too. He’s also turning 33 next year as well.
I would have rather given the to-be-31-Pagan 4/40 last year than give the to-be-33 and damaged Grandy more than 2 years.
I think for a reasonable contract, Granderson can be a good get, but he’s not going to be asking for a reasonable contract, and someone is going to be desparate enough to give it to him. I would go 3 years for him, but wouldn’t go any higher than $10 million AAV.
Every acquisition is a gamble. We have done all the addition by subtraction available on this squad. Its now time to make moves that show the MLB we are going somewhere. A Grandy signing sends a lot of messages on top of his expected play. He immediately becomes the second best person on the team. There is no way we can stumble into the playoffs. Not every personnel decision is a winner. This year with all the new TV money coming in, it is clear that everyone is going to be valued far more than anyone thinks is reasonable. If the Mets dont play, well, then we wont get anyone to this team. By the way Choo is a 25.6 WAR guy, and will cost far more than Grandy. On top of that, Grandy msy be exactly the kind of change of scenery type player that could really make a charge.
Grandy has posted more than 2 WAR every season he has played, with an average of 3.5. Bay posted a 2+ five times, with the time frame 2004-6 his hey day. The Mets bought on his 1 season in Boston, a special place completely uncomparable to CitiField.
Change of scenery? From hitter friendly Yankee Stadium 10 miles away? I mean, perhaps in Citi he won’t be swinging for the fences as much as he did in the Bronx, but I’d hardly call the Bronx to Queens a change of scenery.
Granderson has posted a wRC+ of 120 or above exactly once since 2008, and that was in 2011, when his BABIP was 22 points above where it was in any other season of >300 PA.
Bay’s wRC+ numbers in the 4 seasons predating his signing with the Mets (in order from most recent to oldest): 135, 133, 97, 137. That 97 wRC+ season was accompanied by a a 40-point dip in BABIP, which recovered the next year. He was far off from 1 good season in Boston. Bay’s WAR has more to do with his atrocious defense than his hitting.
I agree on Granderson. I go the 14M AAV for 4 yr and give him the 56M$. The reality is that its gonna take 56M to make this happen. Im good for that and the cumulative 35 WAR.
I’ve vacillated on Granderson, but with the market already thinning and the Mets need for lefty pop makes Granderson the one to sign. 3 years 42 with an option might get it done.
I’d then try to trade for a younger OF. Coespedes was rumored to be available at the beginning of the offseason.
If that type of move can’t be made, then sign Byrd and run him out there for 120 to 140 games.
Byrd is now off the table.
For a ridiculous price at that.
Joe you say Hart may have issues playing the outfield with his surgically repaired knee. Which one? He had surgery on BOTH knees in 2013. Micro surgery on his right knee in June of 2013. Just the fact that he wasn’t able to come back should have red flags going up and yet it is reported he is looking for a multi-year contract. I think Hart is better suited for an AL team where he can rest his knees DHing. The Mets have plenty of bench players. Signing 1 impact outfielder can elevate the defense and the inconsistent offense at the same time. Choo is 31 and in good health so I don’t see signing him as a high risk. Package a deal for CarGo (Gee,Montero,Murphy and Davis) and your outfield is set for the next 4 years. Sign Peralta for shortstop(10 million for 3 years?). Platoon at first base with Duda and maybe Satin. Even if it costs more than 17 million at 4-5 years for Choo you still have room in your 2014 payroll since CarGo is only due 11 million in 2014.
Let me put that trade for CarGo you proposed in terms you can understand:
Ivan Nova, Francisco Cervelli, Eduardo Nuñez and Gary Sánchez for David Wright. That’s basically what you just proposed. Just be a bit more realistic in the future – at the very least, we’d probably have to send something like Syndergaard, d’Arnaud, and Herrera.
Granderson at 4/56 ( a Swisher deal) seems like the market. I think he adds good lefthanded power to the lineup (20-25 hr), play LF and backup CF and is a good clubhouse presence, I would prefer 3/45 but that may not be the market.
If the Mets are reluctant to go four years then use Byrd at 2/16 as a fallback option but only expect 15-20 hr and a .761 career OPS not 2013 production.
Hart as an OF sounds very risky. David Murphy would be worth a chance with the expectation of him being a platoon OF.
ike for Aoki is appealing but there may be even a better deal that Ike could be involved with. Trading for the second outfielder is a very strong possibility.
In my mind, you start with a combination of Castro (trade), Byrd, and Napoli. The three of them combined for an average of 7 WAR over the last three years, played 439 games last year, slugged 60 HR and would cost you around $28MM.
The Cubbies need a 3B and a 2B, and we have a surplus in both cases. We can move Duda and Davis in separate deals to open up roster space for Napoli (Aoki? An AL slugger?).
I see no reason to give nearly $60MM for a guy that had two injuries at 32, and committing to four years … especially since you will also be asking him to change positions. Isn’t anyone seeing the insanity of a Granderson deal? Yes, it might end up well but you are loading the dice against yourself.
Nuts. Just nuts.
I could live with a Flores – Castro swap. I personally wouldn’t sign Napoli unless you are 100% sure you can dump Davis (at least Duda can fake his way through the OF). Byrd is now off the table (at a high 2/16 price).
I completely agree with not giving Granderson ~$60 million at age 32.
Metsense are you saying Byrd is asking for 8 million for 2 years? That’s scary!
the MLBTR trade rumoris 2 years at 16 million
Sorry. Sometimes I’m a little dense. Is that 16 million per year? Or 16 million total?
Byrd signed to play the next two years in Phillie at 8 M a year for a total of 16M . It is the contract that MLBTR predicted.
When values are listed, in general they are listed as year/total value. So a 3 year deal for $36 million is 3/$36 million. It’s done this way because it’s very common for contracts to vary year to year. In those cases, they may also include an AAV – average annual value.
Can we trade both Davis and Duda and bring in a guy like Hart to play 1st base?
If Davis can net us a guy like Aoki, do it
If Duda can bring us a decent bullpen arm and/or backup catcher, do it
If Murphy can get a decent power bat in the OF and/or a decent SS, do it
We can pair EACH of those guys with a B-/C+ prospect in order to get the players we want…
Welcome to the funny farm in Queens. Seriously I don’t see the point of even wasting 1 minute on Grsnderson. It just doesn’t make any sense. Napoli is NEVER coming here. He will probably either re-sign with Boston or go to a contender. Besides with his degenerative hips an AL team where he can occasionally DH is a better fit.
I think the best combination would be between a 1st tier outfielder and then maybe a 3rd tier outfielder. I wouldn’t take the risk on granderson…strikes out too much.
or Marlon Byrd, now a hated Phillie.
By adding a pitcher like Montero or as you say Syndergaard would make the trade more equitable for both teams? Would you do the trade then?
So much for reading some of the Met fan wishes of re-signing Byrd to another 1 year contract for peanuts.