The Mets have spent some real money in 2013 to prepare for 2014. They signed Curtis Granderson ($15 Mil Per), Bartolo Colon ($10 Mil Per) and Chris Young ($7.25 Mil). That’s a $32.5 Mil investment in 2014! I wonder if we scour the signings if we might find a way to spend that money a little more wisely.
Minor League Deals:
Jason Kubel – Kubel had been a 20-30 HR threat since 2008 but 2013 was a very bad year. Production dried up in the same desert air that saw his OPS rise to .833 in 2012. On a minor league deal? Really, it seems like a no-brainer.
Colby Lewis – Lewis was hurt for all of 2013 and half of 2012 but in 2010 and 2011 he was solid part of the Ranger’s rotation. Lewis pitching in the comfy confines of Citi Field would be a great thing for both the Mets
Cheap Deals: Deals Under $10 Mil Per
J.P. Arencibia – ($1.8 Mil) The Mets are in the market for a backup catcher, but for $1.8 Mil… isn’t Arencibia worth it? At the very least he’s a big power threat off the bench. Seems like the commitment was small enough for the Mets to have taken that chance.
Rafael Furcal – ($3 Mil) He’s 36 and spent all of 2013 on the shelf. In 2012 he only had an OBP of .325 and 12 stolen bases and it’s been since 2010 since he’s been thought of as a “Good” hitting shortstop. That being said, with nobody else to lead off the Mets should have spent the $3 Mil.
Rajai Davis – ($5 Mil Per) At 32, Davis is a risk. He’s built on his legs and legs break down first. He did steal 45 bases in 2013 and he only played 108 games. I’d say he might have been worth a look at $5 Mil Per.
Mike Pelfrey – ($5.5 Mil Per) With the Mets looking for innings they could bring back the prodigal son. I’m pretty glad they didn’t but it would have still made sense.
Corey Hart – ($6 Mil) Hart was cheaper than Young? Listen, I know Young can play center and runs much better, but Hart’s ability to play first base (with the Met situation in flux) makes this missed signing a bit confusing. We did sign Young early, so getting both made less sense… if you really wanted to start Juan Lagares.
Mike Morse – ($6 Mil) Okay… defense, yes point taken.
David Murphy – ($6 Mil Per) Murphy is an underrated player. He had a poor 2013, but prior to that his OPS has regularly been over .700. He’s not a 30 HR hitting corner outfielder, but at the same time he’s a productive bat. He’d be pretty nice hitting in the second half of the Met lineup.
Josh Johnson – ($8 Mil) The Padres got a deal from Johnson who was looking to re-establish his value in a pitcher friendly park. Not only did they get a better pitcher than the Mets they saved $12 Mil.
Phil Hughes – ($8 Mil Per) At $8 Mil per I probably would have passed too, but it would have been an affordable and younger option for Alderson to take.
Mid-Market Deals: Deals Under $15 Mil Per
Jose Dariel Abreu – ($11.33 Mil Per) Lots of people wanted him. I wasn’t one of them, but I figured I’d list him. Will he be a star? Maybe. Will he be ready to play in the MLB in 2014? Maybe. Can the Mets pay over $60 Mil to a player made of maybe? No.
Johnny Peralta – ($13.25 Mil Per) He got a ton of money. I wanted him but not at this price. Good job, Sandy!
Big-Ticket Deals: Deals Over $15 Mil Per
Shin-Soo Choo – ($18.75 Mil Per) Choo got less than I thought he would and missed the opportunity to play for the Yankees for more money than he got. I think the Mets won’t regret getting Granderson for the length and cost they did. Then again, it seemed like Jason Bay was a wiser spend than Matt Holliday once upon a time.
Groveman’s Second Guesses:
- Curtis Granderson (4 Years, $60 Mil)
- Josh Johnson ($8 Mil)
- Corey Hart ($6 Mil)
- Rafael Furcal ($3 Mil)
- Colby Lewis (Minor League Deal)
- Jason Kubel (Minor League Deal)
|
Pos |
Alderson’s Mets | Groveman’s Mets |
|
C1 |
Travis d’Arnaud | Travis d’Arnaud |
|
C2 |
Anthony Recker | Anthony Recker |
|
1B |
Ike Davis/Lucas Duda | Ike Davis/Lucas Duda |
|
2B |
Daniel Murphy | Daniel Murphy |
|
3B |
David Wright | David Wright |
|
SS |
Ruben Tejada | Rafael Furcal |
|
LF |
Curtis Granderson | Curtis Granderson |
|
CF |
Juan Lagares | Juan Lagares |
|
RF |
Chris Young | Corey Hart |
|
OF |
Eric Young Jr. | Jason Kubel |
|
OF |
Matt Den Dekker | Eric Young Jr. |
|
IF |
Josh Satin | Josh Satin |
|
IF |
Wilfredo Tovar | Ruben Tejada |
|
SP1 |
Bartolo Colon | Josh Johnson |
|
SP2 |
Jonathon Niese | Jonathon Niese |
|
SP3 |
Zack Wheeler | Zack Wheeler |
|
SP4 |
Dillon Gee | Dillon Gee |
|
SP5 |
Jenrry Mejia | Jenrry Mejia/Colby Lewis |
|
CL |
Bobby Parnell | Bobby Parnell |
|
SU |
Vic Black | Vic Black |
|
SU |
Josh Edgin | Josh Edgin |
|
MR |
Jeurys Familia | Jeurys Familia |
|
MR |
Gonzalez Germen | Gonzalez Germen |
|
MR |
Jack Leathersich | Jack Leathersich |
|
LR |
Carlos Torres | Carlos Torres |
In my magical world of hind-sight the Mets have a lineup of: Furcal, Murphy, Wright, Granderson, Hart, Davis/Duda, d’Arnaud, Lagares. Should both the in-house options for first base fail they could always move Hart to first and shift Kubel into the starting outfield. You will also notice that my choices leave the Mets with a stronger rotation and with the remaining money they could go out and get some Parnell insurance. All things said, Sandy isn’t doing a bad job and my choices would not have been those prices had the Mets been in the bidding.
Even with the benefit of hindsight and constructing a fantasy team, I like Sandy’s job more than yours.
And not by a little bit.
specifically … when I look at the people you’ve added …
Hart: ?
Kubel: ?
Furcal: ?
Johnson: ?
Your roster moves signficantly subtracted defense (or, possibly added a fifth/sixth 1B in Hart), and answered no position definitively.
Is the upside higher? Marginally, but I see Chris Young as a 25HR/25 SB CFer so we’ll just disagree there. I want this team to actually compete in 2014, not dream about competing and you’ve signed us on to sleep through the year.
You seem to have gone way over budget. Kubel/Lewis are minor league deals, but both make 2 mil on the major league roster. So that’s around 36.5 million pre-incentives, plus around 15 million in incentives combined. Unless you expect all of them to stink and not hit their incentives,(in that case why would you bother signing them?), so assuming assume half the incentives are hit, that’s around 45 million total, which is well over budget.
What Sandy really missed this winter, was the trade market.
If we were looking to sign a multi-year pitcher, why weren’t we engaged with the Tigers in Doug Fister? Yes, he would cost us some players(probably on the order of Turner/Edgin/Fulmer), but he would actually be cheaper than Colon (i’m guessing he’d earn 15-18 mil in the last 2 years of arb), plus we get a draft pick when he leaves. Potential trades for the OF could have been Aoki (and then fans would probably be willing to drop EY too, a plus plus) or us taking a chance on a former top prospect Michael Choice. If we had gone the cheap route for the 1st OF addition, we would have had enough money to sign Choo, although we would have had to top Texas by a decent margin because they have no income tax there. I’m not sure what the number would have to be to have lured Choo to the Mets so i’ll just stick with Grandy in the 2nd OF spot for simplicity
My additions would have been:
Fister(~7.5mil)
Grandy(15 mil)
Aoki(2 mil)
which adds up to 24.5 million, well less than what Sandy spent and if were able to drop EY and Ike(5-6 mil combined), we could easily fit in Drew(somewhere between 10-12 mil).
I agree with Name that Sandy was asleep at the wheel (like many other GM’s) when it came to Fister.
I also would have pulled the trigger on Matt Joyce for Davis back in November..
I would not have gone 10M on Colon, especially for two years, but would have gone 3-4 on Drew instead, even at 13.75M a year.
I would have brought in Lewis and even another vet starter to a minor league contract assuming Fister wasn’t obtained. I would have relied on Mejia, Montero, Syndergaard, and deGrom also in 2014.
I would have reluctantly signed Hawkins, especially with the uncertainty of Parnell.
If the Mets wanted to gamble, I would have added Johnson instead of C Young with Joyce in RF.
Sandy had different priorities and did accomplish what Sandy set out to do with his budget restraintsl but he is still is leaving a gaping hole at SS. The Mets did not invest $32.5M they “reinvested” it. Now I would like to see the Wilpon’s invest some new money into the team and take care of that gaping hole at SS.
trades presume that you have a willing partner. No assurance that Aoki, Joyce, Fister or others were available to the Mets, especially for what we had available at those times.
Fister, in particular, has about every other ownership group screaming at their respective GMs.
Aoki and Fister were both traded. Unless Detroit/Milwaukee had some sort of grudge against the Mets, they were very much available to the Mets. Joyce, on the other hand, was not traded so we will never know if he was on the trading block. Even if he was, i doubt he was ever offered for Ike straight up.
Name, my point is that you don’t know that the Mets had a willing partner. Yes, I know that Aoki and Fister were traded … but you seem to be making the assumption that either team wanted to trade with us.
Whether we had the specific parts they wanted (or were willing to deal them for those specific players), we’ll never know.
Free agents are a whole other kettle of fish. Dollars pretty much are dollars. Young, $7MM. Hart, $6MM.
Im not sure why you think that either team wouldn’t want to trade with us. Other than perhaps for divisional or some grudge, why would either team not want to deal with the Mets had they presented the best package?
I think you’re making an assumption that the final terms of a deal are what the team originally wanted. I could be wrong, but i doubt that when the Tigers were looking to deal a #2 caliber pitcher they were looking for exactly an underachieving middle infielder, a lefty specialist, and a wild card pitching prospect. They may have been specifically looking for one of those 3 things (my guess is the lefty), but would have taken other types of secondary pieces.
Free agents are more similar to trades than you might think. Unless your one of the top free agents looking to get paid big; mid-tier free agents like Young and Hart do very much consider playing time, ballpark, and the state of the team into their final decision into where they play. Sometimes you see the familiarity with the GM coming into play. Josh Johnson reportedly took less money to pitch in SD and unlikely would have taken the same deal to come to NY. Ditto for Lewis and Kubel who likely took less to stay/go back to places they knew well.
Hart can’t play the outfield. His knees are shot. I am not a Chris Young fan but as I look over the list he is probably the best of a lousy bunch. If Lagares doesn’t work out he is a CF option. Where ever Young plays he will give you some defense which the others on the list wouldn’t.
I can see the Josh Johnson over Colon choice. However Johnson is a huge risk and if the team has any thought of a wildcard run in 2014, Colon was the safest bet. Also there is no guarantee Harvey will be ready at the start in 2015 so Colon gives them some insurance. Johnson also has some clouds over his clubhouse demeanor.
Furcal is most likely finished. He was on a downward trajectory before he got hurt. He is worth a shot if you had a SS who you are high on but thought needed to start the year at triple A. In the Mets case, if you can’t get Drew for two years, you give Tejada one more shot. More likely he rebounds than Furcal.
At this point Kubel is just another AAA player; there are plenty of others around.
I don’t think Hart will be playing outfield in Seattle. He just had major knee surgery and will probably just play 1B and DH. I still wears his sunglasses at night tho.
Nice Flattery! And Hart looks like a sure thing to DH nearly full-time.