Catcher: Travis d’Arnaud – I don’t think of d’Arnaud as a prospect. At this point he’s in the majors, but he does have the prospect tag based on limited service time. You may recall his offensive line from 2013 and worry about his .202/.286/.263 but you also have to look at his full resume and recall that in 19 games at Las Vegas he managed a .304/.487/.554 line. He may not break records or chase Mike Piazza’s home run numbers but his defense will be supported by his offense eventually. The key will be that he needs to stay healthy.
Honorable Mention: Kevin Plawecki missed the list because for him to breakout more than 2013 would be crazy.
First Base: Dominic Smith – Smith had a good debut in the GCL and a great 3 games in the APP. 2013 was his draft year so the numbers there are not the most telling. I would still bank on Smith starting the season in extended spring training and finding his way onto the Brooklyn Cyclone’s roster. Some will argue to have Smith play full-season baseball and to start him in Savannah or Port St. Lucie but I think this is being overly aggressive. In Brooklyn or Savannah his power will suffer but I expect we should see good on base skills and doubles wherever he goes.
Honorable Mention: Allan Dykstra is trapped in AA. He was the MVP of the league, but he’s too old for it and there seems to be a log-jam of players in AAA. Now, a certain Wilmer Flores might be vying for the position in AAA. Dykstra can’t catch a break.
Second Base: Dilson Herrera – “The Dilson” was a great acquisition by the Mets in 2013. The Pirates may live to regret letting him go. Herrera will likely get the promotion to Port St. Lucie but watch him. The Mets have some options, including promoting Herrera straight to Binghamton. I think he’s a future 15/15 second baseman with above average defensive ability. I think he’ll start proving that in 2014.
Honorable Mention: L.J. Mazzilli is that other player who has a right to reach Port St. Lucie in 2014. He was the best offensive prospect in Brooklyn in 2013 and he has the history to progress through the minors more quickly than others.
Shortstop: Amed Rosario – People wanted me to be more excited about Rosario’s performance in 2013 but I can’t say there are many stats to toss out. The young player from the Dominican Republic, “held his own,” in the Rookie Appalachian League. It isn’t the most ringing endorsement but I do see big things to come. In 58 games he managed 8 doubles, 4 triples and 3 home runs. This was accomplished against older pitchers who have much more experience. I think you will see a jump in Rosario’s numbers early in 2014.
Notably Not: Gavin Cecchini, who is probably a great guy, who gets ripped by many of the writers on many blogs. Cecchini is not an offensive weapon and the breakout of his brother Garin Cecchini in 2013 is not something I see the Met prospect matching.
Left Field: Vicente Lupo – Lupo’s 2013 line from the GCL is not impressive. His .220/.310/.385 does not match his awesome 2012 line from the DSL where he managed a .343/.500/.608. This is why you don’t bank on DSL production. I still think you haven’t heard the last of Lupo who’s ISO of .165 still places him above average. He should find his way to Brooklyn or Savannah in 2014 and I hope he shows us something special.
Notably Not: I considered placing my old favorite Cory Vaughn as an honorable mention but the truth is that even with a big year in AAA I can’t see his swing translating into major league success. I like him a lot but it seems like a lost cause.
Center Field: Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo almost broke out in 2013 but a poorly timed injury saw him on the shelf while his buddies Plawecki and Jayce Boyd continued to mash. His 2013 was certainly good: .273/.397.359 but there were underlying flaws. He was ridiculous in April with an OPS of .854 and somewhere less than good from May through July. His August OPS of .885 does give me hope that it was a matter of recovery though. In a better hitters park with a healthier year I think you’ll see Nimmo’s name in the upper levels of Baseball America’s list.
Honorable Mention: Matt den Dekker and I’ll tell you why. Look at Den Dekker’s track record. He’s promoted and he doesn’t hit well… then the next season he hits very well. I don’t think Juan Lagares is the starting center fielder for long.
Right Field: Cesar Puello – Puello was involved with Biogenesis and we should have concerns about how much of what he was and what he did was aided by chemicals. I think he used steroids in 2012 during his injury plagued season. That might be 80% wishful thinking, but he certainly gave us reason to hope for more after his .326/.403/.547, 16 home runs and 24 stolen bases. I think the Mets will be giving him a long look this spring.
Honorable Mention: Travis Taijeron seems to wait for me to give up on him again and again before he shows off some power and hitting. He has an outside shot of putting together a last prospect push in 2014 and I certainly hope he does.
Starting Pitcher: Luis Mateo – Mateo was promoted to AA after only 8.2 IP in Port St. Lucie. He was injured and that was that. He’ll be back in 2014 and I think he’ll make the most of a healthy season in the minors. He is, sadly, out of time for more injury setbacks.
Honorable Mention: Michael Fulmer was hurt for much of 2013 but came back to throw a respectable 34.0 IP by the end of the year. Fulmer still has some prospect pedigree and should be hurling in Binghamton before too long. He’s still got the ceiling to be a #2 or #3 pitcher in the majors and 2014 could very well be the year he proves it.
Relief Pitcher: Akeel Morris – Morris did start several games for Brooklyn but he was used primarily in relief. He still had some of his typical control issues but he managed to strike out 60 batters in 45 innings. He also kept people from getting hits which kept his ERA to a lovely number, 1.00. In 2014 the Mets will need to decide if they wish to keep Morris a reliever or move him back to starting. I think he’s going to be a reliever one day and the Mets would be better off with him in relief.
Honorable Mention: Cory Mazzoni is going to be making a long anticipated leap into relief. We’ve heard the rumblings since he was drafted but I think the Mets intend to have Mazzoni ready to join the major league bullpen at some point in 2014.
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Lots of good stuff in here.
I thought I was going to be one of the strongest supporters of Amed Rosario but I’ve seen him ranked as high as fourth on prospect lists this winter and that just seems so much like wishful thinking at this point.
That he played in the APPY is definitely a huge thing in his favor but Francisco Pena played in the SAL at age 17 and that didn’t make him a top prospect.
I’m optimistic about Rosario but some people are just crazy about him right now. If you want to be crazy about someone – try Jose Medina.
I’m not saying that Rosario is a Top 10 player. He’s simply the shortstop in the Met system that I’d peg for a breakout.
It is a shame that Dykstra won’t get a chance just like Zach Lutz at 3B. It must be personally frustrating for them to have some talent but be in the wrong organization. Jayce Boyd would have been my honorable mention at 1B only because he is younger. The few times I saw him he appeared to be a good gap hitter with developing (20 HR) power.
Kevin Plaweki looks to be the real deal.
Boyd would become a top prospect with further growth.
Plawecki is the real deal but I’d expect the “breakout” from d’Arnaud