In general there are three kinds of teams – Those with a few talented players, and no depth – these teams are generally bad; those with no standout players, but lots of depth – these teams are good, but not championship level; and those with a few talented players, and lots of depth – these teams are the ones playing deep into October.
The Mets are a good example of the first kind of team, the Kansas City Royals are a good example of the second kind of team and for the third kind – think of the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Mets have a few standout players in David Wright and Matt Harvey, but struggle to fill out the ball club with suitable complementary pieces. Exhibit A – the first base drama. If Ike Davis or Lucas Duda were actually good enough to warrant a spot on their own, there wouldn’t be such a spirited debate about who should start.
Therein lies the real problem with the Mets in 2013 – or any non-competitive team with a star or two – the supporting cast around Wright and Harvey was just not good enough.
The good news, is that as things stand as I write this article, there are far fewer holes and question marks than there were at this point in 2013, or 2012, or really in any other year since 2008.
The starting outfield is more or less set with Curtis Granderson, Lagares and Chris Young, with Eric Young Jr. on the bench as the fourth outfielder. David Wright and Daniel Murphy can be counted on to contribute, and the top four pitchers in the starting rotation are all more than competent and should give the team a chance to win almost every game.
The bench is strong too, consisting of Josh Satin, Eric Young Jr., Davis or Duda, Wilmer Flores (maybe Andrew Brown instead) and Anthony Recker.
The starting rotation depth is out of this world: Bartolo Colon, Niese, Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia, John Lannan, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jacob deGrom, Rafael Montero, Noah Syndergaard, and a possible September return of Harvey.
The real questions on this team: “Can Ruben Tejada return to his 2011 form (or will the team sign Stephen Drew)?”, “Will Davis or Duda do enough to be a competent starter at first?”, “How will Travis d’Arnaud and Wheeler progress in year two?”, and the yearly “How will the bullpen perform?” aren’t really as bad as they seem.
If in fact Tejada, d’Arnaud, and Wheeler can live up to their Steamer projections, the Mets will find themselves with a much stronger supporting cast around Wright (and Harvey when he returns), which bodes well for the team.[1]
Sandy Alderson and company have done a nice job this offseason adding depth to the team on a limited budget, and if some of the young players come along, the Mets have a chance to raise some eyebrows in 2014.
I realize that this is a best-case scenario, but I honestly don’t think the Mets are as bad as some people give them credit for.
There have been real improvements made this offseason, and if just a few breaks go their way, this could be the most fun summer in Flushing in a half-dozen years.
Joe Vasile is the voice of the Fayetteville (NC) SwampDogs. Follow him on Twitter at @JoeVasilePBP.
[1] As for the other two questions, I’m not going to venture a guess because of A. I don’t wan’t to open up the Davis-Duda can of worms and B. the bullpen is not in its final form so it’s very silly to speculate for now.
Chris Young hit .200, granderson is fine but essentially replaces Byrd. The bull pen has questions. Unless things change dramatically no power at 1b, Murphy at 2b, Tejada at short …I’ll hold my nose. So please don’t say things are better. This team is a 75 win special. Yeah they added Granderson but never added the next piece to IMPROVE the power from yesterday. Spring training optimism??? Not getting sold that BS again. I will feel better when they have 90 wins in September. I am tired of potential, tired of the con job.
I pretty much agree with you Chris, but dont feel that bad. We have what we have, and Im prepared to celebrate whatever good we get from individual performances or the joy of seeing someone new outperform expectations. All in all, I agree, its a 75 win team. The thought that this Mets team is going to somehow climb over the Braves or Nats is quite frankly ridiculous. It’ll be a hopeful third place again. My question is will the Phillies complete the meltdown and finish last?
The reality of 2014 is that the Mets are going into the season with two holes in the offensive lineup. Either Lagares or EY, and Tejada at SS. They have a rookie catcher that needs to establish himself, a first baseman that was demoted to the minors just last year, a free agent signing that is coming off a down year and a second free agent signing that is coming off an injury plagued year. The pitching free agent is 40 years old and is projected to be the most likely to land on the disabled list by many expert sources. There are many things that have to go right for the Mets to improve.
You’re not getting an argument here, Chris. My prediction as things stand right now, is that the Mets are a 77 or 78 win team. Best case scenario, though, they could make a run and do something special (though even I admit that the playoffs are a pipedream).
I’ve been saying all a long if the Mets get 240 out of short stop and 240-250 with 15-18 homers out of first base they will contend for a Wild Card. Those numbers would be a huge upgrade over last years. I see 81-85 wins. Syndergard, Montero, Puello could be the lightning in the barrel in the second halve of the season.
After 30+ years of being optimistic about the Mets, I’m treating this season differently. This year I am assuming the Mets will be average to poor and hoping to be pleasantly surprised. Right now I look at them and think they have potential to be very poor at first and short. They have center fielder than has shown he can field but not hit. They have a young catcher that shows a lot of promise but not much else. Their right fielder has the potential to be the next Jason Bay. They I actually think Grandy will be fine. He should be able to put up close to the numbers Bryd did last year in his career year. Their left fielder had a bWAR of 3.6 in 2010 but since then his last three years have barely totaled higher than than. A lot will have to go right for this team to contend in 2014. Their young pitching should be fun to watch though….
I wish we could edit these comments… The one they should be though….
the “than than” should be “than that…”
Sigh…. I get emotional when I type about the Mets.
January definitely is the time for optimism. As someone who grew up watching Lee Mazzilli, John Stearns, Craig Swan and a cast of thousands even then I thought the Mets were an exciting team to watch and root for because they were always behind so most of their wins were of the come from behind variety. I think the two keys to the Mets this season are Jenry Mejia and Cesar Puello. I think if Mejia pitches like a number 2 or ace like he did at end of last season then even without Harvey the Mets rotation is good enough to keep them in wildcard contention. If Mejia is pitching well and Puello is ready then Mets can trade a starting pitcher (Niese, Gee, or Mejia) for a bat. Still would love to see Reyes back. He still is best option even with high salary.
I have a hard time believing at this point that Reyes is going anywhere. It all seems to just be fans wishing he was back – and there’s nothing wrong with that, I wish that, too – but I don’t see Reyes being traded again.
Man, that optimism dried up quickly. But after these past years of hoping for wins, and getting ugly losses instead, it’s no wonder Met fans are a little gun shy with the optimism. This team, on paper, should be an improvement. I have that hopeful feeling going into ST. It’s just a matter of weeks now!