Why do you want to sign Nelson Cruz?

Earlier this past week, I read an opinion piece suggesting the Mets signing free agent OF Nelson Cruz along with Stephen Drew in an effort, in this writer’s opinion, to have a formidable lineup. I dismissed this opinion as just that—an opinion—and possibly a way to fill the page. Despite the lack of any noticeable reason, that sentiment has picked up traction over the past few days leading to callers (and even some hosts on WFAN) to concur with the idea that Cruz somehow would make the Metropolitans a better team.

He wouldn’t.

Here’s why:

My first point is the biggest: Nelson Cruz would not be a starting outfielder on the current Mets squad. Unfolding that a bit more, consider some facts with me here:

Cruz’s Wins Above Replacement from 2011-2013:

2011- 1.3
2012- 1.1
2013- 1.5

For reference, this was light-hitting OF Juan Lagares’ fWAR from 2013 alone (more like just three quarters of a season, but we’ll ignore that):

2013- 2.9

The past two seasons combined for Cruz do not match the value that Lagares gave the New York Mets in 2013. Marlon Byrd had over 4.0 fWAR.

Cruz’s power is diminishing. His isolated slugging by season starting with his first full season in Texas in 2009:

2009- .264
2010- .258
2011- .246
2012- .200
2013- .240

To be fair, .240 would have led the Mets in 2013. My problem isn’t that Cruz does not have power, because he does. My worry is that his power is on a projectable decline and, at age 33, it does not inspire confidence in his ability to continue to hit powerfully. The other worrying aspect of Cruz’s ISO is that the only season Cruz logged more than 515 at bats was in 2012 when his .200 ISO was a career worst in full time play.

That leads me to another troubling thing about Cruz. He just doesn’t play as much as you would want. His at bats by year:

2009- 515
2010- 445
2011- 513
2012- 642
2013- 456

Cruz averages 514 at bats. Again, this is not terrible, but he is annually missing time. His games played tell a similar story. He misses just about 36 games a year on average since gaining a full time job. While not condemning in an isolated examination, it is still certainly worrisome for an aging player who is supposed to be a middle-order hitter who also has injury and PED pasts.

Two more points there…

1.) PEDs

2.) He’ll be 34 over the summer.

On point 1, I’m not a person who typically worries about former PED use. Mistakes happen, players are stupid, and it’s an unfortunate but ubiquitous part of the game. However, when the player seems to not be able to stay on the field, is aging, and also has a PED history, that does worry me. Performance enhancements are used as often (if not more so) to keep players healthy and recover, as they are to bulk.

Let’s leave that alone and focus on another matter that is a huge point that no one seems to be talking about: Nelson Cruz is a product of his ball park.

Career home: .294/.356/.556/.912
Career away: .242/.299/.435/.734

.246/.342/.424/.766

Oh, dear, how did that last slash line get in there? That’s Lucas Duda’s career line you say? Oh…oh dear.

In my estimation, you take Nelson Cruz out of Arlington and you get a version of Lucas Duda that doesn’t get on base. This alone should turn every team in baseball off of this guy and yet that’s only part of the case against him. What GM wants to pay, for that production, 15 million for multiple years?

Again, though, let’s forget about the contract and rather continue merely evaluating him as a player.

He has power. It’s declining, but he has power.

Unfortunately, that’s about it.

Cruz costs his team runs upon runs with his defense every year. He costs you on the base paths. He does not get on base at a particularly high rate, especially for a slugger, and especially away from Arlington. He’s particularly awful away from home. He has a marginal hit tool that appears to be declining and is not effective outside of a band box of a stadium he’s called home for the past half a decade.

This leads me back to my initial assessment: Nelson Cruz does not even make my starting outfield. Frankly, he’s not even close.

Juan Lagares: We covered this already but he is simply better. Even if the hit tool does not advance and the mind blowing defensive metrics regress, he is still more valuable than a clunky, slow, powerful…uh…ish Nelson Cruz.

Curtis Granderson: Undeniably better in every facet of the game than Cruz.

Eric Young Jr: From a value standpoint, this one is close. Despite quite a bit of adoration from the fan base and the coaching staff, Young Jr. was not particularly good last year. Even so, he has more to offer the team. He leads off, has speed, gets on base just about as well, is versatile, and brings a much better glove.

Chris Young: Although Young had a poor 2013 season, he is an immensely talented ballplayer. While I might be tempted to start Cruz over Young Jr., I wouldn’t even think of it when it comes to Chris Young. He brings both speed and power to the lineup, plays some of the better defense in the outfield you will see in the National League, and, the kicker as it is with all four of these guys, he’s already signed, is with the team, won’t cost a draft pick, won’t cost the Mets more money, won’t cause more of a logjam in an already solid unit, and won’t give the franchise another headache contract to survive.

If I were the Mets GM, I wouldn’t even consider Nelson Cruz a better option than the four outfielders I already have. Then there’s the age and the PEDs and the declining power and the home/away splits and the lack of speed and the awful defense and the contract, and, well, you get the idea.

In short, I am forced to ask the question because I simply cannot wrap my head around it: Why do you even want Nelson Cruz?

You can find me on Twitter by name Stephen Guilbert (@guilbs88)