Since 2011, Sandy Alderson has received a ton of heat for his picks in the first round of the draft (excluding 2013). Many criticize his willingness to pick players that have high risk in high school. Some fail to realize that the draft is a huge risk in and of itself and just because a pick after the Mets succeeded, it doesn’t mean the Mets’ pick was a complete failure. When some point to Jose Fernandez and Michael Wacha to portray Alderson’s failure, it irritates me because at the time the Mets needed an Outfielder and a Shortstop. Nevertheless, Brandon NImmo was chosen as the 13th overall pick in 2011 and has actually played on a serviceable level. Some believe he has failed, but even factoring in those doubters he will have a monster year in 2014.
1. A Change of Scenery
Considering Savannah is actually one of the worst hitter parks in America more so for lefties, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Nimmo was much better on the road. In fact, his overall slash line at home was .284/.410/.385. While his slugging percentage wasn’t actually great, he was heads and shoulders above his home numbers: .240/.354/.281. Now that he will be going to a neutral park for hitters and pitchers he should be able to turn in a much better slugging percentage along with plenty of doubles and triples.
2. His New-Found Health
After getting off to a red-hot start in April, .322/.421/.433, Nimmo had a pretty serious hand injury that kept him out until June. He didn’t come back at full strength until late July and started to catch fire with a .473 OBP in 131 PA until the end of August. However, in the middle of these two months were almost three lost months: May he played in only four games; and an atrocious June through most of July in which he had.664 OPS. Considering the severity of the injury, I would expect a young player to take a little while to bounce back. When he did start to figure everything out, he was an excellent and elite player. Now with the extra months off, his health should be perfect enough to produce a tad less than his April and August numbers over a full year.
3. Nimmo Has Superior OBP Skills in Addition to His Rising Maturity
The problem with Nimmo from the beginning has been his lack of experience and inexcusable strikeout rate. His lack of experience could have resulted in a lack of overall hitting for a few months. Nimmo was overmatched in the months of June and July (.232) while managing a very respectable OBP (.349). Even with his very poor hitting he still figured out a way to get on base. Why is this? The simple answer is that he in advanced for his age but still shows signs of immature plate discipline. It may seem obvious that he simply wasn’t swinging the bat because his hand wasn’t ready yet and was still taking pitches. This may be true, but in a good way. He still was able to maintain a superior OBP while healthy and managed to post an excellent BABIP of .402. As he matures, he will be able to post these numbers over the course of a full season. His BABIP may not be able to stay this high, but as he gets older his strikeouts will drop which will result in a rising AVG.
Nimmo may not be perfect and he may be at least a full season away, but he is still a top prospect with an enormous upside. Fans of this team need to realize that the possibility of Nimmo becoming a three-hole hitter is not realistic. What is realistic is a superior leadoff hitter with an excellent OBP and a ton of doubles. His defense and base running will improve as he matures as a baseball player making it not an important quality to worry about. Many fans need to believe in Nimmo. He could end up being a great player for this team.
You actually missed the main reason which was his new training program he went through in Florida during the off-season.
Nimmo is on a bit of a strange trajectory. Injuries and the Savanha ballpark were a big challenge. His ability to be selective indicates good discipline and pitch recognition…and he has some pop. A better contact rate, health, and a better hitting environment should give him a shot at some production and progression. It is a long road from 18 to MLB…he’s not yet a fireball, but he’s certainly not a flare.
BTW— I believe that Nimmo will be a a 2-6 hitter if he actually makes the grade. I’m unsure that he can stick in CF, and he doesn’t seem to have big speed or bae stealing skills. The power will need to develop for him to become a player…..and he seems to have some power potential. I regard that as a player with at least 40-45 or so extra base hits, including homers. Therefore, logically, he’ll need to be “at least” a “selective Dan Murphy” with a bit better power. If Not, he’s not a player
Julian you said the Mets needed an outfielder and a shortstop. Drafting a player who will fill your immediate needs 3-4 years down the road doesn’t make sense. Do teams draft in their eyes the player with the most potential? Or draft players based on need? I was under the assumption that if you’re drafting high school players(especially the Mets(, you don’t expect to see the player at the major league level for quite some time.
You are correct, the Mets should have drafted college players at the time if they wanted to fill the position immediately. The problem is that, in 2011, the best outfielder was taken two spots ahead (George Springer) and the Mets took the player they believed had the highest ceiling. In fact, the next “successful” outfielder in that draft was 37 picks later at Jackie Bradley. For the record, I am not a big fan of Cecchini- but he still can reach his potential.
You are correct, the Mets should have drafted college players at the time if they wanted to fill the position immediately. The problem is that, in 2011, the best outfielder was taken two spots ahead (George Springer) and the Mets took the player they believed had the highest ceiling. In fact, the next “successful” outfielder in that draft was 27 picks later at Jackie Bradley. For the record, I am not a big fan of Cecchini- but he still can reach his potential.
Think the thing with Nimmo is the skills are there and raw I just see him doing well with the right coaching and development. He really needs to cut down on those strikeouts.
Fyi,
BABIP measure how “lucky” a player was. A high BABIP is not a good thing and indicates that the player was lucky and a regression is due. Average BABIP is usually around .300, a bit higher for faster players.
Good players make their own luck. Nimmo has lots to prove still, but he’ll be welcomed with open arms if he keeps on improving.
The thing is there as been no improvement.
put down the pipe. Nimmo is getting better everyday and is going to have a huge impact on this team.
What are you talking about??? Nimmo has dealt with too many injuries, and will never be an elite player. The best chance he has is moving to a position such as shortstop, as that is what the Mets need. But until that happens, the only thing Nimmo is good for is a trade piece.