We had a comment last week about the pitching staff in Savannah and if those numbers were “For Real” or not. The answer is much more complicated than a simple yes or no. The reason for this can be explained by looking at some numbers from the recent Met past.
Mark Cohoon: In 2010 Cohoon started 13 games for Savannah where he amassed a 1.30 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 90.1 innings. Those are good numbers, right? Where is Cohoon now? He’s not currently pitching.
That shouldn’t take everything away from the current Savannah pitchers though.
John Gant: Gant was the “Ace” of the 2013 Brooklyn rotation and I got a chance to see him on the mound. Gant gets solid strikeout numbers but lives in the middle of the plate too often. He has an Opp AVG of .260 for the year which would probably inflate his ERA above 4.00 if he weren’t in a pitcher friendly park.
Kevin McGowan: A relief pitcher for Brooklyn in 2013, McGowan was beat up to the tune of a 5.28 ERA. In 2014 he’s turned out a stellar 32.0 innings with 29 strikeouts and a 2.25 ERA. His WHIP is good in 2014 but not great. He’s giving up too many walks and hits to be a major success as he moves on.
Miller Diaz: Has bounced around the minors since 2009 and has seen some success here and there. This year, he’s been great, with 36 strikeouts over 31.0 innings and a 1.74 ERA. While he isn’t old, by any stretch, his success could be in large part due to him being more prepared for this level than the hitters he’s facing.
Robert Gsellman: Drafted in 2011, he was a 13th round pick who has always pitched well but never great. In 2014 he’s pitched great. The 1.32 ERA over 27.1 IP, the 26 strikeouts and only 6 walks are all great to see. It would be even better if not for his first outing of the year where he was roughed up. He is not a front-line starter, but the stats are there to indicate he could carry his success into higher levels.
Dario Alvarez: Spent three years on the Philly DSL team before joining Brooklyn last season. He’s much too old for the level, but at the same time his success is off the charts. Anyone who can manage a 0.36 ERA with 39 strikeouts over 25 innings is doing something right. If he’s really as good as those numbers the Mets will promote aggressively.
Robert Whalen: Has not pitched since May 1st. My bet is that he’ll be the opening day starter for the Cyclones, but the “demotion” has little to do with performance. Whalen has a crisp 1.80 ERA with 21 strikeouts over his 20.1 innings in 2014 and (before the draft, at least) he’s the #1 starting pitcher in the lower levels.
Akeel Morris: Is no longer a starter. At one point he was mentioned as part of a trio of promising pitchers with Domingo Tapia (Wallowing in Port St. Lucie) and Juan Urbina (Yet to be sighted in 2014). The trio all boasted hard fastballs and they looked poised to make their marks after the 2011 season. Tapia went farthest, but seems to have hit a mechanical roadblock in high-A. Morris, meanwhile, saw his role converted to relief.
In 2013, he pitched 11 of his 14 outings out of relief and he struck out a whopping 60 batters over 45.0 innings. His walks were still a factor but he displayed far more control than he ever could as a starter.
In 2014 the numbers have only gotten better. He has a 0.00 ERA over his 22.2 IP and he’s struck out 36 batters and walked only 11. In fact his WHIP is well below 1.000 which is very impressive for any pitcher. The ERA might be a result of Savannah’s friendly confines but at a certain point you need to take your hat off and applaud.
AAA:
Andrew Brown is keeping it up – He’s mashing the ball at a steady OPS clip above 1.000 and he’s not slowing down. He’ll be back up in the majors soon.
Matt Den Dekker reminds us he has power – He has hit three home runs in his last four games. He has not played since the 16th, so stay tuned…
Cesar Puello finally starts hitting – He’s .261/.325/.339 on the year which is not noteworthy in Las Vegas. Over his last ten games his OPS is a much nicer .972 which he will hopefully continue.
Noah Syndergaard left behind – Rafael Montero and Jacob deGrom have graduated and left Syndergaard behind. He’ll follow their lead a little later this summer.
Zack Thornton ready to contribute in majors – The player the Mets received for Ike Davis is also the best reliever in AAA for them. He should join the major league squad any day now.
AA:
Matt Reynolds is hitting, but not enough – He can play shortstop and he’s hitting plenty if he were playing there, but he’s not hitting enough to make waves as a third baseman.
Kevin Plawecki’s batting average is on the rise – The good news is that his average for the year is up to .330, which is great. He’s not hitting with the same power he had last season, which is slightly troubling.
Darin Gorski is hopefully headed for Vegas – He’s got nothing left to prove in Binghamton.
Matthew Bowman obliterates New Hampshire – 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 12 K. Defense let him down as he suffered 6 unearned runs.
Jack Leathersich has his head on straight – He’s not showing the control problems that have plagued him in the past.
A+:
Brandon Nimmo seeing triple – He hit three between 5/14 and 5/16. He’s cruising in Port St. Lucie and should see a mid-season promotion to Binghamton.
Remember the name, Dilson Herrera – He’s a respectable .317/.358/.403 and he could certainly walk more but he’s stolen 10 bases which is great to see.
Cam Maron should not be forgotten – The Mets have a left-handed hitting catcher with some contact ability. His batting average is on the rise and we haven’t forgotten about him.
Steven Matz is sharp again – With another solid outing we ask ourselves when Matz will reach AA.
Michael Fulmer looked good – On the 14th he tossed a solid 5.0 inning outing against Tampa. We look to see a few more in the near future.
A:
Jeff McNeil is still hitting strong – Sporting a .921 OPS in Savannah is very difficult.
Gavin Cecchini is making me check up on him – He’s not jumping off the page, but he’s also doing enough to keep him an interesting name.
Dominic Smith might be over-matched – A “demotion” to Brooklyn would not be out of the question. Plus, I’d get to watch him live.
L.J. Mazzilli needs to do more – Savannah is a tough place to hit but the .651 OPS isn’t impressing anyone.
How are the Mets filling the AAA rotation spots vacated by Montero and deGrom? I’d be surprised if Gorski isn’t one, but who might be other?
Good synopsis.
I do not think Dominic Smith is overmatched. He has hit quite well the past 4 weeks. Leave him right where he is and we’ll be happy with his #’s by year end.
I would not overuse the Cohoon comparison – he was a soft tosser whose razzle dazzle faltered against higher pitching. Savannah’s pitching has been awesome, other than Flexen, and there has to be some correlation to future higher success for several of its harder throwing pitchers.
With Plawecki, .330 is .330. Awesome. I am sure we’ll see more Plawecki power, so I am not disturbed. The power guys (Lawley, Vaughn, Taijeron) are not hitting much at all – I’d rather see a high average with low power for now than higher power that will be sub-.200 on the major league level.
Nice thoughts
I think the number of Savannah pitchers who don’t succeed later in baseball exceeds the number that do. I am cautioning people that pitchers perform well there without necessarily going on to big things. It is still the largest number of good lines I can recall seeing in one group.
Plawecki’s power is there and will show itself. He is playing well but he raised his bar a lot last season.
Dominic Smith simply has not hit much this young season. I hope he turns things around.
Oh, it’s a good time of year to follow minor league ball, anticipating one’s “tagged” players getting a promotion and what-all. I sure hope you are right in thinking that Gorski will be one of those promoted; there’s a bunch of lefthanders who had real major league careers while throwing no harder than Darin Gorski. Maybe it time to recycle a very old nickname and call him Darin the Adequate.
I didn’t see any mention of Luis Cessa, nor of Gabriel Ynoa, who (as best as I can tell from this distance) seems to have turned his season around recently. Any thoughts?
Gant’s ERA at home in Grayson Stadium is 3.86. His ERA on the road is 1.89. The vast majority of contact against him has been on the ground. The pitcher friendly Grayson stadium has nothing to do with his success this season.
Having said that, yes it is A ball. He will need to prove himself in upper levels to succeed.