Prior to this season, many people were high on Juan Lagares. They loved his defense and saw his bat improving in his sophomore campaign through the majors. All I could see was a fourth outfielder with a great glove whose bat would see him replaced by June. It’s time to admit that I was wrong.
Thus far, Lagares has played 32 games and has a healthy OPS of .830 for the year. That’s over 300 points higher than I expected it to be. How can this be explained? Where were my calculations off? The answer is a healthy dose of pessimism.
Lagares is on pace for some really nice power numbers (given his expectations):
- Doubles – 45
- Triples – 10
- Home Runs – 10
On the flip side, he is only on pace for 30 walks and zero stolen bases. So the long and short of the story is that he’s improving, but still has room to grow. Patience and base running acumen are two areas where players can improve later in their development.
Do I expect Lagares to finish the year with a .300 average and an .800 OPS? No. That would be great, but it seems like asking too much. I can tell you that he’s hitting enough to hold the starting centerfield job into the future.
Mr. Lagares,
I’m sorry for doubting you.
Sincerely,
David Groveman
Hardly overdue David. Perhaps even premature in my opinion.
He also had a really good 32 game stretch last year from July 1st to August 11th when he hit .324/.367/.505 with a .871 OPS. They key to his success? A .391 BABiP.
When his BABIP regressed, he proceeded to hit just .201/.250/.262 with a .512 OPS, .260 BABIP over his final 45 games
Over the whole stretch, he had a normal BABIP of .314, and his numbers were .251/.297/.360 with a .657 OPS. Not great, but numbers we can stomach with his excellent defense and about what i expected from him in the future.
This year he once again is relying on a high BABIP (.386) for success. If history is to repeat itself (as it often does), be prepared for a brutal stretch from Lagares in the future. But if he’s still hitting this well later in the year with a normal BABIP, then i’ll issue my apology .
BABIP is one of the most ridiculous, meaningless of all stats. It is the ultimate example of
“the truth is the thing itself”.
There are two kinds of hitters in baseball. Those that look for their one pitch, and those that look to hit strikes. Lagares, particularly, has shown this year that he has learned to be the latter, as demonstrated by his propensity to go the other way with 2 strikes. If you take the right approach, your “BABIP” SHOULD be higher than your overall average, and by a considerable amount.
It is an indication of the problems in major league baseball that we don’t see greater disparities regularly. It’s part and parcel with the acceptance of the strikeout as a legitimate approach.
Now if we can convince TC to play him on a regular basis? That would be an accomplishment.
Juan Lagares is great but Chris young has to be released out Eric young jr left field Eric Campbell at first
I agree on the regression of BABIP…. but how about the possibility that his game itself is lifted by by experience and some “growth”? 24 year old players have seldom “remained the same” from 1st ab though 500-1000 ab’s…… the generally get better or they proved that they Can’t—as in Cant Play every day.
Apart from some ab’s that he still gives away (today was a good example), Lagares “looks” to be increasingly competitive and productive as an offensive player. At .690-.700 ops, he’s a viable player—above that range he becomes a very compelling talent.
Kinda reminds me of Carlos Gomez when he first he came up.
are there any teams in need of both a starting pitcher and and an OF? We might be able to package Chris Young and a Starter for a solid first baseman.
You’re under the assumption SA will be trying to salvage what little hope there is for his 90 win season. What happens next year when the Mets are having the same issues that have plagued them ever since they moved to Citifield?
Given the putrid state of affairs on offense, Lagares looks like champ. In some ways he is looking awesome, and due to regress, but I also think he is getting better. The chasing low and outside eats at me , but his patience is improving and he seems to be having some genuinely nice ABs that he toughs out, as well as clutch hits or catches.
I’m still all in on Lagares.
Regression be damned! I don’t see the talent flying away from this kid. Rough patches, sure. He is an absolute everyday player right now though.