Dillon Gee threw 50 pitches off the mound yesterday and is slotted to make a rehab start in the Gulf Coast league on Monday or Tuesday. If all goes well, Gee should be recalled and installed back into the Mets starting rotation sometime at the end of June. The candidates to lose their slots are Daisuke Matsuzaka or Jacob deGrom. Both pitchers are scheduled to start this weekend in Miami and in Pittsburgh next week. Performance in those starts could be relevant to the criteria for Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins’ decision making going forward.
A knee jerk reaction would be to say to put Dice-K back into his role which he’s thrived at for the majority of his relief appearances this year and keep deGrom in a role he’s had success on at all levels of the organization. That option may come to fruition, however deGrom’s performance in his past three starts make the decision a little foggier. In his first four starts, deGrom pitched well posting a 2.42 ERA yielding only 16 H and 12 BB with 25 SOs in 26 IP. However, in his last three starts he’s pitched to a 7.80 ERA yielding a whopping 26 H and 6 BB with only 9 SOs in 15 IP. Seven starts is not an ideal sample size when developing a young starter and deciding whether or not to keep him in the rotation, but that is precisely why these next to starts could be so vital for him in the short term. deGrom doesn’t seem to be an option for the bullpen, so if he continues to trend downward in his next two starts, Triple-A Las Vegas may be where he makes his following one.
Of course, there’s no predicting how well Dice-K is going to pitch from start to start. Even though he’s had success this year out of the bullpen and in spot starts, his control has still been a problem. In 41.2 IP, Matsuzaka has hit four batters and walked 30. Unlike in past seasons, some injury plagued, the 33 year old Japanese import has minimized his troubles by navigating through innings with poise. He’s relinquished only 22 hits while compiling 41 SOs. The velocity on his pitches appears to be close to that of his prime with Boston. If he shows he can pitch deep into a game with the same success he’s had in the bullpen, he may solidify the fifth starter role for the medium term. There is also another key factor.
Noah Syndergaard has 12 starts under his belt in Las Vegas. Surprisingly, the #1 prospect in the organization has struggled this year albeit in the run heavy Pacific Coast League. He’s pitched to a 4.78 ERA and opposing batters are hitting .299 against him. The mechanics and eye-popping repertoire are still visible, but the results just haven’t come yet this season. If “Thor” as the eager fan base adoringly calls him, can string together a few of his dominant starts he’s been known for thus far in his young career, the whole Dice-K/deGrom decision becomes all but moot in a month or so. Either way, it shows the outstanding organizational starting pitching depth even with Matt Harvey and Jeremy Hefner sidelined for the year.
So now the Mets will try to piggyback on the outstanding starts of Bartolo Colon and Zack Wheeler with a few more gems. The team will need sustained success from the pitchers due to a lackluster offense. Perhaps the motivation to stay in the rotation will bring out the best in Dice-K and young deGrom sparking a winning streak.
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