As the Mets head into the All-Star break raging hot, there are a number of factors that have contributed to this. The bats are finally clicking for the first time since 2011, Collins has finally figured out how to put together a lineup card, and the pitching has been spotless. Since the beginning of Mets history, pitching has been the sole promised-land for satisfaction. The Mets are currently sitting at tenth in the majors in ERA and eleventh in strikeouts. Now, let’s take a look at the different men in the rotation and the bullpen that have succeeded.
The Rotation
Who has worked: Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Jacob deGrom
The front three of this rotation have been nothing short of spectacular even though each have hit the disabled list or weren’t present in the majors at some point. All three have posted an ERA+ north of 100 and all three have allowed a minimal amount of homeruns. If they could, the Mets would have no problem riding these three every day for the rest of the season.
On the Fringe: Zack Wheeler, Bartolo Colon, Daisuke Matsuzaka
All three of these pitchers have had their ups and have posted respectable numbers, but still they still hit walls and sometimes look like they cannot pitch. Even with this problem, all three pitchers have posted respectable a FIP. This suggests that in the case of Colon and Wheeler, their ERA should be almost a half a run better. Colon has once again been a control freak with an amazing 1.3 BB/9, but has had trouble with the long ball posting a 1.0 HR/9 rate. Wheeler has been the opposite with a fringe walk rate of 3.8 and a 0.6 HR/9 rate. Matsuzaka has had a weird season thus far, posting incredible numbers in limiting hits (6.3 H/9), but atrocious with allowing walks (5.6 BB/9). If these three pitchers (especially Wheeler) limit the bad starts and stick to the good ones, the rotation will be unstoppable.
The Bullpen
Closer
Who has worked: Jenrry Mejia
Ever since being named a full-time reliever, this 24-year old has done nothing but impressed the fan base. As a reliever, he has posted a 2.33 ERA and has struck out 27 batters in 27 innings. He has also converted 10 of his 12 save opportunities. An interesting fact is that he has a 1.42 ERA in the ninth inning and has a respectable 3.14 ERA in save situations. Look out Bobby Parnell — this kid might take your job!
Set up Men
Who has worked: Jeurys Familia, Vic Black, and Josh Edgin
These three men have been lights-out in the bullpen for setting up Mejia. Some fun stats on Familia include the 1.54 ERA since April 9th and the respectable 3.6 BB/9 rate. Black has still been plagued with a walk problem, but has been able to limit them from scoring. Edgin has been on fire since his call-up and has posted his best numbers across the board. If the Mets keep this trend of quality late pitching going, it is going to be hard to beat this team.
Long Man
Who has worked: Carlos Torres
Who else? This guy actually might have an arm made of rubber as he is on pace to break 100 innings. The only problem has been his increase in walks and hits allowed, but this is made up for in striking out almost two more batters per nine innings this season than last. Not much else to say on Torres other than that we Mets fans love ya!
The Middle Men
Who has worked: Dana Eveland and Buddy Carlyle (apparently)
I’m not going to lie. When looking at the Mets current roster, it was a surprise to see these guys on here, but they have apparently done the trick with impeccable numbers across the board. Both of them are on the wrong side of 30 making them unlikely to stay past this year. I wouldn’t expect to see them past their first implosion.
Who hasn’t worked: Gonzalez Germen
To begin, I am actually a huge Germen fan and it is heartbreaking to see him go, but he was terrible in New York since the return from his virus. At his best, Germen’s changeup was one of the top five that I have ever seen come out of the bullpen. If Germen can get his act together while in AAA, he will be called up immediately and his 7.27 ERA after his last call-up will be forgotten.
This bullpen has actually the been one of the best in a long time and I am proud to call it ours. In fact, after doing some calculations, if one were to drop the numbers from Scott Rice, Jose Valverde, Kyle Farnsworth, John Lannan, and Bobby Parnell, the team ERA would drop from 3.50 to 3.31 (best for sixth in the league). The Mets don’t currently have any member of their bullpen with an ERA over 3.00- with the technical exception of Mejia.
It’s a pet peeve of mine when people use all of MLB when talking about team ranking. The AL uses the DH, the NL does not. That is significant. You have to compare apples to apples and not apples to oranges.
10th out of all of baseball in ERA seems impressive. It’s not, because when using just NL, they are only 8th out of 15 in the NL. Furthermore, when using ERA+ which adjusts for park, they are a very mediocre 10th out of 15 in the NL.
Situationally , they haven’t been good as well. You would expect a good pitching staff to be able to “carry” the team on days when the offense isn’t there. An indicator of this would be to look at winning percentage when the team scores 3 runs or less.
The Mets are just 5-35 (.125) when scoring 3 or less runs.
For comparison, league average is 21.5%.
And a good pitching staff like the Braves are 16-34(.320)
While the pitching staff holds a lot of promise in the future, and they have started to shown it with a sparkling 3.02 ERA over the past 50 games as we have jettisoned a lot of the pitchers that have failed, seeing as this post is to judge what the pitchers have done overall for the season so far at the halfway point, my assessment is that they staff as a whole has “not worked” more than they have “worked”.
Hopefully, the second half pitching will be brilliant enough to bring up the overall numbers for me to change my sentiment on how they did this season.