Sometimes I’m wrong, like when I said that Juan Lagares would show no offensive growth in 2014 and would instead backslide into being unplayable. Sometimes I’m right, like when I said that Jacob deGrom might have the brighter future than Rafael Montero. I was wrong about Bartolo Colon… to a point.
Colon has been great. He’s easily earned his $10 Mil per year contract and has pitched well enough to even give me faith for 2015 as well. The thing I am not wring about is that the Mets do not need Colon for 2015 and never have. With Matt Harvey, Jonathon Niese, Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee, Jacob deGrom, Jeremy Hefner, Rafael Montero, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, the Mets do not need the veteran anchor in their rotation.
This is why, buyers or sellers, the Mets should trade Colon.
The Mets could afford to promote Montero or Syndergaard for the rest of 2014 and not sacrifice the positive momentum they have going. Plus, if Sandy Alderson can find a team willing to give up similar pieces to what we got for Marlon Byrd and John Buck the Mets can build upon their already talented farm system.
Give the Dominican Doughnut a standing ovation for what he’s done in 2014 and see what we can get for him.
AAA:
Matt den Dekker making his mark in AAA – His season line is now .319/.387/.519 and he is walking more than he’s striking out. I’m not saying he’s a future star but I am telling you he is performing brilliantly.
Kevin Plawecki is heating up – He’s not yet crushing things in Vegas but he has his OPS on the rise.
Noah Syndergaard auditions to replace Bartolo Colon – It was only 5.0 innings but he only gave up 5 hits, 1 ER and 2 BBs with 8 Ks.
AA:
Dilson Herrera is someone to get excited about – He needs to strike out less… a lot less, but he is showing plenty of power, speed and hitting acumen in AA. He has 17 EBH in 34 games at AA.
Should we worry about Steven Matz’s Ks? – His K/9 has taken a serious dip in AA. He’s certainly still getting results but he’s just not dominating the way you might expect a lefty with his fastball MPH to.
A:
What is wrong with Dominic Smith? – A .694 OPS on the year is not good. I know he is young for his division… so why is he there?
Akeel Morris should be promoted – He’s dominated every aspect of Savannah, it’s time for new challenges.
A-:
Michael Conforto is dominating his minor league debut – .412/.459/.559 through his first 9 games. He has a hitting streak through all of those games with 5 doubles and 3 walks in that short time. He’s doing pretty well.
R:
Wuilmer Becerra is hitting – His OPS is up to .898 on the year and is on the rise.
Thanks again David.
Not so fast on Bartolo; I think we need a contrarian voice here. I see plenty to be concerned about with at the least, 3 of our arms and perhaps 4.
Neither Gee nor Niese is anything I would consider a reasonable building block. In fact, no team would trade for either player right now – which should be an indicator to you of their value.
The presumed ace of this team is coming back from Tommy John surgery.
The sophomore slump is a real consider on someone like JDG.
Beyond that, you have players that have either already failed at the Major League level (Montero) or that have not yet dominated at AAA (Syndergaard).
It might surprise some to hear it from me, but the arm you can rest some on is Wheeler. At least the guy has been average/average + for a while without injury.
All you have as you look forward from here are question marks around that pitching mound and the guy you are willing to part with is the innings eater and someone with prolonged success in the major leagues.
Good luck with that.
“In fact, no team would trade for [Gee or Niese] player right now – which should be an indicator to you of their value”
Wait, what? This is a joke right?
If there’s someone who no team would trade for right now, it’s Colon. I’d be mildy surprised if a team is simply willing to absorb the contract and very surprised if a team gives up anything more than the org filler-types like we got from the K-rod deal.
I agree with JG, neither Gee nor Niese have any trade value IMO. Niese is a mess and no one would trade for a guy with should issues. Until Gee shows hes ok, same issue. At lease Colon is healthy in his own way, and capable of dealing!
I think we are being a little reactionary with both Niese and Gee but they are both concerns at present.
In terms of Colon, his salary has been justified in 2014 and the Mets would likely even pay something to get a better prospect back.
Respond to the point I am making, instead of going on to a different point Name.
Would any team trade for two pitchers that clearly are having after effects of injuries?
No, they wouldn’t. Whether or not they would or wouldn’t trade for Colon is another question. In my opinion and apparently the author’s opinion, they would.
If you don’t believe Colon has trade value, take it up with Mr. Groveman. Otherwise, allow me to state it clearly for you,
No. I am not joking. You can feel free to find an instance when pitchers clearly impacted by injury were moved at the trading deadline.
Plenty of teams would trade for either player, considering they are not just a 1/2 season. The Red Sox were able to unload an injury-riddled Peavy who isn’t even producing now for a guy who entered the year as a top 100 prospect.
Peavey is not injured; his career is over. Throwing 124 innings (6 per start) and not missing a single turn during the year injury.
Sorry Charlie.
And if you think even for a second that someone is going to give up a *ranked prospect* for an injured pitcher, well, I’ve got nothing to say.
But Gee and Niese aren’t even injured. You may think they are injury-riddled (to some extent but not as bad as you think), but Peavy is injury-riddled, not producing, and in his mid 30s and the Red Sox still got something for him. Shaun Marcum had multiple surgeries but the Jays got a top prospect in Lawrie for him. How many chances did Carl Pavano get?
Gee and Niese still have tremendous value.
I think there’s a difference between “no one would trade for them” and “no one would give up much for them.” I don’t agree with the former, but agree with the latter as I suspect we couldn’t get much for Niese or Gee right now. They’re not untradeable but they don’t have “tremendous value,” either.
Were you really wrong on Lagares? His ISO has gone from .110 to .101 and his BB% has gone from 4.8 to 4.5 percent. The only increase has been in his BABIP, which is 32 points higher than a year ago. And I wouldn’t bet money on that lead still being there by the end of the year.
Smith absolutely should be at Lo-A this year and I’m not going to find fault with a teenager batting .287 with a .350 OBP in the SALLY. After batting .212 in April, he’s been over .300 the next three months. He needed a full season of ABs and he’s getting exactly that. Let’s see what happens next year in SLU. I’m confident he’ll be one of the guys getting a mid-season promotion.
I’m beginning to think we’re going to cash in on the lottery ticket of Becerra
I predicted a sub .200 batting average for Lagares. I was wrong.
I hope you are right on Smith, but his OPS is dismal.
Also, he’s playing in a park that is not friendly to left handed powr.
I have seen Smith four times this year and he hasn’t pulled the ball once for power to right field. At the game Brian, Joe and I saw he did drive the ball to LC for a double. I am not “sold” on him as the first base heir apparent yet but I’ll take into account that he is young (I read family members accompany him at Savannah games ) and adjusting to adulthood. Let’s have some patience with him. His partner Matt Oberste is the man hitting with authority in Savannah.
Colon has plenty of pitching appeal, it is the second year of his contract that is unattractive. I am not overly concerned that Colon is impeding the progress of the young pitchers but more concerned that he will be paid $11M in 2015 that could really be used elsewhere. I would not hesitate to pay his 2014 salary in order to get a better prospect back in a deadline trade.
I’m not too worried about Matz’s K rate. It was over 10 K/9 in A and rookie leagues, and since the call up to AA, is actually just a tick higher than it was in A+. His walks are also down at AA too, a K/BB ratio of 4.13 is better than anything he has posted at any level and his WHIP is the lowest at any level as well.
I’m concerned about Lagares’ bat. I think he has not made the step forward offensively.
No room for Bobby Abreu in Queens.
Keep Colon through this year. The reason they signed him is to have a vet who could eat innings and be effective. Gee and Niese have a propensity for missing starts on a yearly basis too, and deGrom/Wheeler are strapped with innings.
Depth yes, but I think the offseason is the time to sort out the starting staff…unless they get blown away with a SS or OFer who could play right away.
Colon has been fun to watch for the fans too.There’s no need to stockpile teenagers in St.Lucie and Brooklyn anymore.
If Harvey doesn’t come back strong, and Niese and Gee continue to have their moments of injury, wouldn’t keeping Colon be an incredible backup? He’s given the Mets everything they could have asked for this year, and it doesn’t look like next year will be some drastic drop in production. However, If someone wants to give us something back and we have to swallow $5 million for next year, that’s fine. But he has a ton of value at the moment and we wouldn’t have to pay an extraordinary amount to make a good trade happen.
+1. Trading Colon right now seems like a colossal mistake.
Kinda hard to seriously argue trading Colon is a “colossal” mistake. They may have room for him if young pitchers struggle/get hurt, but there’s no real guarantee that a 40+ year old, 300+ pitcher will be any good/healthy next year, either. And it’s not like Colon has been that great this year, as his numbers are being helped by CitiField (his road ERA is 4.95). And if things pan out he may end up taking a roster spot from a younger, better options. Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Syndergaard, Montero, Niese, Gee, and maybe Matz by mid-2015…that’s a lot of potential starting pitchers next season.
I say trade Colon if we get a good offer. Supposedly the O’s have asked about him, but the front office hasn’t decided whether they want to part with him or not. It’s not a disaster to keep him, but it’s not a mistake to ship him out, either.
That was more my point. Trading Colon just to get rid of him in the hopes that all our young pitching is ready is the mistake. Keeping him because other teams aren’t matching our asking price is fine. He’ll probably have roughly the same trade value in the offseason. Plus he helps make this rotation better at the moment.