Travis d’Arnaud: The catcher we’ve been waiting for

This is what we’ve been waiting for since we made the R.A. Dickey trade. Travis d’Arnaud has not only finally put it all together, but he’s been much more than a league average starting catcher for the last two months. Since his recall after his demotion, d’Arnaud has put up a slash line of .273/.318/.503/.822 with 7 HRs and a wRC+ of 127. That wRC+ over the full season would put him sixth among all major league catchers. That’s even better than other highly regarded hitters catchers like Buster Posey (123 wRC+) and Yadier Molina (111 wRC+).

Travis says his sudden adjustment is due to a change in a mind-set. His mind was cluttered with too many concerns and mechanics and what had been going wrong and instead he was just going to start having an optimistic mind-set. That’s what Travis says, but the data shows otherwise. Before his demotion, Travis couldn’t hit anything thrown hard. That’s the most thrown pitch by far, and d’Arnaud had been fed a steady diet of hard pitches, 65% overall before June 7th and was only hitting .193 with a .301 SLG in 83 ABs vs. hard pitches. He was actually much better against off-speed stuff, hitting .273, but that was only 11 ABs. Since his promotion, he’s hitting .261 with a .457 SLG in 92 ABs vs hard pitches. The amount of hard pitches he’s seen hasn’t changed at all, still 65% but now he’s hitting them better than he ever has.

So what’s the real reason? According to Mike Vorkunov of the Newark Star-Ledger, a slight adjustment has allowed him to better cover the outside of the plate. Pitchers are no longer able to attack him on the outside of the plate like they used to. Low and away, pitching coaches preach. Well, since d’Arnaud was recalled, if Travis swings at a ball that’s in the strike zone low and away, he’s getting hits. Not just hits, but hard hits. He still has holes in his zone, like many hitters do, but look at his heat maps (these maps are from the catchers POV, so for a RHB the outside part of the plate is on the right)

Before demotion:

Since recall:

There is an extreme and noticeable difference between these heat maps. Before his demotion if d’Arnaud had a pitch on the outside of the plate he was practically hitting at a Bartolo Colon level; 3 hits in 44 ABs (.068 AVG). Since his recall not only is he hitting balls that are on the outside part, but he’s actively looking to attack those pitches. With 17 hits in 63 ABs (.270 AB), that’s very impressive for a player that looked like he might never be able to handle an outside pitch. Pitchers and scouts had learned very quickly that d’Arnaud was easily pitched around if you just threw hard pitches on the outside half of the zone. With d’Arnaud showing that he can now attack those pitches, he is starting to see better pitches all over the zone to hit. Should he finish the season at his current pace he’s currently on, you can expect him to get his final slash line to be around .250/.310/.420/.730 with a wRC+ around 105. These are all rough estimates based on his current production. That kind of final line is amazing, considering how poor he was hitting before his demotion. His future looks a lot brighter now than it did on June 9th.

Of course with the deep farm system the Mets have, and another young stud catcher in Kevin Plawecki, anything can happy. If d’Arnaud keeps hitting like he is now, I have no doubt the Mets will try and flip Plawecki and another pitcher for some major league ready talent.

Also, it’s nice to rub in the fact that the Phillies traded d’Arnaud (their best prospect since Ryan Howard) and now the Mets have him. As a Mets fan living in hostile Philadelphia Phillies fan territory, I know I love to rub that in their face.