With the 2014 season winding down and a few players still making headlines without the team making the playoffs, it’s a good time to reflect on the overall performance of this team. More importantly, how individual players affected the team as a whole, specifically, in a bad way.
My next few articles will address these such players, one from each roster grouping. There is one ground rule. As the title is “Least Valuable Player,” administration, managers and coaches will not be discussed, no matter how much I’d love to. If you’re still reading this after that last sentence, then, we can proceed.
The first nominee for this dubious distinction is Dillon Gee. While he is not the conventional type of player for this, he has reason to belong here. With a 3.88 ERA, a 7-8 record in 21 starts and a key injury early in the season that paved the way for the unbelievable and meteoric rise of Jacob deGrom, it’s difficult to argue that he has been the worst normal rotation starter, but that’s exactly what he has been. There are three reasons: performance versus divisional opponents, performance in second half and performance in September.
First, his performance versus divisional opponents. Against the Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins (both late season playoff hopefuls at one time) he posted a 2-0 record with a 1.98 ERA and 1-1 record with a 2.45 ERA respectively. However, against the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals, he has posted 1-1 record with a 4.21 ERA in four starts and 1-1 record with a 5.50 ERA in three starts.
While the Phillies are scraping the bottom of the division, a contending team has to beat the opponents that they’re expected to beat. Numbers like that won’t help this. Against the Nationals, he has been one more reason the Mets have played their way into an abysmal 3-14 record head to head.That’s not how a team learns to make a playoff push.
Secondly, Gee has under-performed in the second half. Prior to the All Star break, he had nine starts and posted a 4-1 record with a 2.56 ERA and was off to a solid season recovering from injuries and trying to get back on track. After the break, however, he has posted a 4.95 ERA with 3-7 record in twelve starts. Not exactly the model of consistency.
Finally, Gee has not been reliable down the stretch. In the final month, he has posted a 4.26 ERA with a 1-2 record in three starts. He’s given up seven runs in twelve total innings in his last two starts alone, one of which was against the aforementioned Nationals. These are the types of performances that fans and management remember in March when a pitcher is competing for a spot in the starting rotation.
With players like Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard chomping at the bit, he may have a tough time retaining that starter job come Spring Training.
Problem is what do you with Gee? His value even in a packaged deal is minimal at best when you throw into account he’ll probably make 4 million next season. So add him and Colon to any package for a LF. Montero and Syndergaard should start 2015 in the rotation. Addition by subtraction. I certainly think the kids can duplicate the amount of wins (21?) we’ll be trading for substantially less. Apply the savings to your left fielder.
The problem is that Gee and Colon are scheduled to receive $15 million next year, making them difficult to trade, unless you kick in a substantial amount of money. I have a feeling we will be seeing both of them on the Mets next year. Also, Montero and Syndergaard don’t seem quite ready for the bigs yet. I think they will both be in the minors for a bit more.
Gee made $3.6m in 2014 and has two more years of control. A fair estimate of his arb value may be $5.4 M. That is a very reasonable amount for a 200 inning pitcher with a sub 4.00 ERA. Gee had health concerns which effected his bottom line in 2014. I think he has trade value especially in a package deal.
Hes killing any trade value today.
The Mets also have a similar, potentially better, version of Gee in Triple A in Matthew Bowman, who is another smart pitcher with a large repertoire, but has a Lincecum wind up, creating more deception than Gee. Adding Bowman onto Montero and Syndergaard, along with Harvey ‘ s return and DeGrom ‘ s emergence, definitely make Gee expendable. He has solid value as he’s one of those workmanlike pitchers.
The least valuable starter of the nine Mets who started games was Montero. He had a worse ERA and FIP than Gee. He did not step up like deGrom did when presented his opportunity. Just like Gee was during the season, he pitched some games hurting and that may have effected his results. If Gee or Montero would be offered straight up in a trade, I believe Gee would bring back the better player so even in that regard Montero is least valuable.
The fact that we can debate who is least valuable between a 200 inning pitcher and a minor leauge pitcher with a ceiling of a #3 starter only reinforces the quality of the Met rotation from top to bottom.
I doubt Gee gets packaged with Colon. I see Colon going somewhere independently, with Gee holding down the fifth spot in the rotation while Thor and Montero refine in Triple-A to begin the year. Gee could build his value back up, and then the Mets could turn him into another offensive option if need be.