As it seems Lucas Duda proved his worth, at least for the time being in the eyes of the Mets management and fanbase, this season by putting up 30 homers, albeit hitting poorly against lefties. He hit well against righties with a slash line of .273/.372/.543, but against lefties he only managed to have a slash line of .180/.264/.252. Duda had significantly more at-bats against righties compared to lefties, but he still faced lefties for about a quarter of his plate appearance. In those 125 plate appearances he managed 20 hits and 10 runs batted, while walking only 11 times.
His career numbers versus southpaws are better than he displayed in 2014. He batted .183 in 2013, but got on base more consistently at a .309 clip. In 2012 his splits were pretty similar and in 2011 they were not horrible. Is it possible that the pitchers in the league are starting to adapt to Duda and found a giant hole in his swing versus LHPs? Definitely possible, but once a hole is identified like this where he dropped his batting average 60 points against lefties from one season to the next, it should be a focus of Duda and the coaching staff. Now that Duda does not have the pressure of battling Ike Davis for the starting job anymore, he can focus on fine tuning his game.
| Player(L/R) | Vs. Lefties (AVG/OBP/SLG) | Vs. Righties (AVG/OBP/SLG) |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols(R) | .263/.301/.436 | .275/.331/.476 |
| Miguel Cabrera(R) | .301/.364/.536 | .317/.373/.520 |
| Freddie Freeman(L) | .260/.358/.398 | .300/.397/.488 |
| James Loney(L) | .256/.287/.314 | .304/.355/.407 |
| Adrian Gonzalez (L) | .201/.261/.327 | .303/.362/.539 |
| Ryan Howard(L) | .230/.323/.447 | .221/.305/.353 |
| Jose Abreu(R) | .353/.437/.662 | .305/.364/.555 |
| Carlos Santana(S) | .212/.351/.407 | .271/.395/.469 |
| Matt Adams(L) | .190/.231/.298 | .318/.349/.505 |
| Anthony Rizzo(L) | .300/.421/.507 | .281/.373/.534 |
| Lucas Duda(L) | .180/.264/.252 | .273/.372/.543 |
| Eric Hosmer(L) | .264/.297/.378 | .273/.326/.406 |
| Justin Morneau(L) | .258/.292/.383 | .341/.389/.538 |
| Brandon Moss(L) | .264/.366/.425 | .228/.328/.441 |
| Garrett Jones(L) | .221/.274/.265 | .250/.314/.435 |
| Adam LaRoche(L) | .204/.284/.336 | .280/.390/.501 |
| Edwin Encarnacion(R) | .263/.375/.495 | .270/.349/.560 |
| Joe Mauer(L) | .268/.349/.305 | .282/.367/.409 |
| Chris Davis(L) | .188/.261/.416 | .199/.318/.399 |
| Mark Teixeira(S) | .220/.333/.358 | .215/.305/.413 |
| Mike Napoli(R) | .300/.450/.473 | .230/.339/.400 |
| Paul Goldschmidt(R) | .384/.526/.589 | .282/.362/.532 |
The list above displays the hitting splits of all first basemen in 2014 with more than 450 plate appearances. Out of the 22 players on the list only three slugged less than .300 against righties or lefties, which were Duda, Adams, and Jones. Coming from a first basemen you would want them to be a big power hitter in your lineup and if a quarter of their at-bats they cannot produce that kind of power, should they be in the lineup. Adams had Matt Holliday with him in the Cardinals lineup, and Jones had Stanton with him in the Marlins lineup. For most of the year the Mets did not have a big right handed bat that could pick up the slack against the lefty starters. David Wright still performed well against lefties despite the injury problems, but did not have as much power output compared to his career. For the most part every player on the list they would either hit well against pitchers of the same side, got on base consistently, or slugged a few homers, but Duda failed to do any of three.
Compared to most first basemen, Duda performed very well ranking seventh out of 22 with a WAR of 3.7 for 2014. Yet against lefties Duda, ranks last in batting average and slugging percentage, and the bottom three for on-base percentage for any player vs pitchers of the same side. When Duda starts against lefties would he be better off being used off of the bench and starting someone like Wilmer Flores or even Kevin Plawecki instead? Is there someone outside the organization that they could look to acquire or would they be better off finding a nice right-handed power compliment in either left Field or shortstop?
Lucas Duda Can Hit!!!!! Other than that, he’s a pretty lousy baseball player—surprisingly good thrower at 1st base, however. He’s generally a bad fielder with limited range and a horrific baserunner—that’s in addition to being a slow base runner.
As a “bat-only” guy, he’s been productive, They need to be sure that they’re not begging him to be a supoerstar—as a “mostly every day” lh bat, he’s always been a good and productive hitter.
They have major holes at SS and LF—- no need to “solve” 1b right now—he’s a decent bat and they have bigger issues.
“Pretty lousy baseball player” stopped reading your comment after that.
Good idea to start Flores and Plewacki against lefties at first instead of Duda. Except neither plays the position. They do have Eric Campbell, unless you forgot..
Campbell could be a fit a First Base as well, but Flores and Plawecki have more potential and could fit into the long term plan for the Mets. If either of them could handle First Base and provide the power needed for the position, then they could be there going forward. Campbell is viewed more as a fill-in player that play where needed. I know Flores has not been exposed to the position yet, but it has been discussed. Plawecki played 17 games at First in 2013 when he was playing in St. Lucie, and it is not uncommon to move Catchers to First Base, for example, Mike Piazza, Joe Mauer, and Buster Posey. I’m not saying that Plawecki will become the next Piazza or Posey, but all those guys have played First in the majors. Plawecki will most likely start the season in Las Vegas where he could get some reps at First Base to acclimate him to the position.
If I’m Sandy Alderson, I should consider dealing him to an American League team. Duda had a solid year as a power bat to hit righties who can take a pitch. But as the article says, he’s not fast and shaky in the field. He’s a much better DH than first baseman.
The catch is the return. If a deal can be worked out for a starting outfielder or shortstop, you have to look for an internal solution at first (Dykstra?). And maybe you trade him for a well-rounded first baseman stuck in the American League.
Dykstra? You mean James Loney lite? No thanks, I’ll stick with Duda.
Duda is not going anywhere.
Duda is fine as our every day guy. Sure, you wanna give him some days off and get some ABs for a righty platoon, thats great. On the other hand, its unlikely he ever gets hitting lefty’s if he doesnt stand in the box. The idea of sitting down 30 HR power a mistake to me. Its a lot like TC benching Lagares this season to let him think about hitting or whatever instead of having a GG-caliber guy out there inproving the run differential by keeping guys off the bases.
Also, Eraff, I disagree with you about his fielding. He turns a solid 3-6-3, he scoops very well (a giant plus given the crap arms we have at 2B, SS, and 3B), and he throws nicely. Ill admit, every pop up, especially in foul ground, is an adventure, but he is not the cause of a lot of 4-out innings.
At $1,637,500 he was a perfect fit!
That is $54,583 per home run. Granderson was $650,000 and Wright was $2,500,000 per home run.
Where else can you get Duda’s power for that price? 🙂
Nowhere.
Duda’s successes against lefties were in 2011 and 2012, so I’m a little skeptical that more time in the box will fix his problems. I agree that Duda is definitely fine in most other aspects of the game. I’m even fine with leaving him in against lefties to get him some more time. But there definitely needs to be a platoon partner ready and able to takeover those ABs if necessary. Campbell fits great for now.
No reason to even think about 1st base for 2015. no need for this article.
I agree 100%
Duda hits the ball hard.
H
A
R
D
Right now, 145 lineup cards. Duda, batting 4th, playing 1B. It’s really the only thing you know for sure about 2015.
You’re forgetting, Jerry, that Terry Collins is the manager. Duda hitting 4th is not guaranteed, although it should be barring a big acquisition.
Joe I dream of the day the Mets acquire Jose Bautista. Perfect fit which allows the Mets to take care of SS internally. Can bat him in the 3 hole and move Wright to 5th in the line up. Granderson hits 6th and leave Duda clean up. I would think Murphy and 2 SP’s plus a top outfield prospect and catcher? may be enough to entice the the Blue Jays, Oh, almost forgot and we don’t have to worry about TC batting Abreu clean up any more.
Two winters later, I believe you could trade Travis for Jose Bautista … straight up.
(I mean, in terms of value. The psychology of AA making that deal is impossible.)
I take that back. That’s a terrible trade for the Mets.
I don’t normally do WAR, but since this is the currency people like to use … Bautista is worth 5 WAR a year, let’s say (prolly not in the NL/Citi, but) and you have to pay him $28MM. That’s like getting 5 WAR for “free”.
If TdA can play C (hmmm), he’s easily a 3 WAR guy. What’s a 25 year old C that can hit 25 HR and produce an 800 OPS at Citifield worth? Through 2017, then arb years to 2020. That’s forever in baseball terms.
I don’t do fantasy (apostate! crucify him!!!), but I’d have to think that’s one of the 15 most valuable “contracts” in the NL.
I never mentioned TDA as part of the package for Bautista. I said a catcher. Also, Bautista is due 14 million for 2015 with a million dollar option for 2016 (Cot’s). In order to get something of value you have to give up something.comparable the other team can use. The only way the Mets can improve their prospects for 2015 is to trade payroll for a left fielder.
The way the Wilpons play the game is to minimize costs.
Thus: Duda stays (he’s very affordable).
Bautista goes elsewhere (he’s too expensive).
It has nothing to do with WAR or any other metric that measures talent.
The only metric that counts is the bottom line.
The the Mets would have to move some salary for that to work. Niese, Murphy and Mejia?