The 2014 Padres actually finished with a respectable record of 77-85. Respectable because well, if you remember how awful their offense was in the first half of the season, you probably thought they wouldn’t even sniff 80 wins. The Padres once again were last in the National League in scoring, scoring just 3.3 runs per game. Before the all-star break, the Padres were only averaging 2.9 runs per game and after the break they scored 3.8, a tremendous difference. Still, the 535 runs they scored were nearly 40 less than the next closest team, the Braves, who scored 573. Had the Padres kept up that first half pace, they would have only scored around 475 runs, an astonishingly low figure.
So the obviously #1 answer to solving the Padres woes would be to get some hitters, right? Unfortunately, my budget precluded me from really going out and signing a bunch of big hitters. And wait, why were the Padres offense so much better in the 2nd half? That 2nd half team would have scored over 610 runs over a full season, which is very close to St. Louis, who made the playoffs. So maybe the problem isn’t really just the offense itself, but consistency. The Padres lost a lot of key players to injuries throughout the season, with players like Yonder Alonso, Jedd Gyorko, Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Cashner missing large chunks of the season. Maybe they just need to get healthier.
Here were my 3 goals:
1. Get a power hitting 1B or 3B. Yonder Alonso isn’t cutting it and Yasmani Grandal is not a 1B (-4 DRS in just 291 IP last year)
2. Get reliable talent that could be traded for prospects if not contending
3. Get rid of Jedd Gyorko while he still has some value. He strikes out way too much for a non-power hitter.
First I went seeking for a low cost power hitting project at 1B/3B and came up with Pedro Alvarez. For one, the Pirates (in real life) are almost certainly going to be shopping him, and he certainly was coming off a down year. I figure he could learn to play 1B and maybe some 3B if needed. I traded Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal to the Pirates for Alvarez and Tony Sanchez. I certainly didn’t want Grandal at first, and the Padres top prospect is catcher Austin Hedges. Also, Grandal has really regressed in the last two seasons. Seems like the scouting reports are really figuring him out. For Alvarez, he’s actually going from one pitchers park to another and before 2014 had ISOs at .223 (2012) and .240 (2013). Grandal never got higher than .175 ISO for the Padres and Alonso never got higher than .157. First goal achieved. Also, don’t sleep on Tony Sanchez. He was a top 50 prospect in all of baseball at one point.
My next goal was to get some reliable talent that could traded if we were out of contention. Also, you want a player who is not on a crazy long deal, and preferably a pitcher. Pitching always seems to be in demand around the trade deadline. My target: R.A. Dickey. Dickey has over 200 IP in the previous 4 seasons, and has 1 year left on his contract at $12 million, with a club option for another year at $12 million. While he hasn’t been as lights out as he was when he won a Cy Young award for the Mets in 2012, he amazingly has put up exactly 2.1 fWAR in 3 of the last 4 seasons (4.4 fWAR in 2012). Now that’s consistency. I made a deal with the Blue Jays to trade Joaquin Benoit and Jesse Hahn. While I didn’t really want to trade Hahn, looking closer at his walk rate (3.93 BB/9) made me feel a bit more comfortable. Second goal achieved.
Next, I wanted to trade Jedd Gyorko. Lucky for me, the Milwaukee Brewers were interested in him and got in contact with me. I immediately scanned their roster and felt that Scooter Gennett and I wanted to get an OF prospect that could potentially help in the future, and picked 2. The Brewers GM came back and said he would put Gennett and prospect Monte Harrison, in exchange for Gyorko and a bullpen arm. I picked a bullpen arm at almost random (Alex Torres) as the Padres seem to breed relief pitching, and we had a deal. Monte Harrison was a 2nd round pick in the 2014 draft, so technically, the trade would probably have to be a player to be named later, as you have to wait 1 full year from the signing date to trade a prospect. Gennett is a decent player. He’s a slap hitter who doesn’t walk or strikeout much, and plays a decent 2B. He’s also 2 years younger than Gyorko and hasn’t even hit arbitration yet. Third goal achieved.
After all was said and done, I even had almost 10 million left over in my budget ($95 million). I decided to go after my weakest position, SS, and threw money at Asdrubal Cabrera (3 years /$27 million). I won the bidding on him, and I am now confident I field a team that can contend in 2015. And yes, I know Cabrera is a very poor defensive SS. Fortunately, I have a backup SS that can fill that hole when the groundball heavy pitchers pitch. Unfortunately, there’s no more trades that can be made otherwise I would probably be trying to trade Everth Cabrera and a pitcher for a better 3B, but I like my lineup.
| Number | Player | Position |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Venable | RF |
| 2 | Scooter Gennett | 2B |
| 3 | Seth Smith | LF |
| 4 | Pedro Alvarez | 1B |
| 5 | Cameron Maybin | CF |
| 6 | Rene Rivera | C |
| 7 | Asrubal Cabrera | SS |
| 8 | Yangervis Solarte | 3B |
| 9 | xxxxxx | P |
I have a high walk guy #1, a guy who puts the ball in play at #2, my best pure hitter at 3, power hitters at 4 and 5 and then my next 3 best hitters in descending order. Also I left Carlos Quentin out because well, who knows when he’s healthy. If he’s in the order, it’s probably entirely different.
I also really like my pitching.
| Rotation Order | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | R.A. Dickey |
| 2 | Ian Kennedy |
| 3 | Tyson Ross |
| 4 | Andrew Cashner |
| 5 | Eric Stults/Cory Luebke/Odrisamer Despagne |
| Closer | Kevin Quackenbush |
| Set-up | Nick Vincent |
| Set-Up | Frank Garces |
| Middle Relief | Dale Thayer |
| Middle Relief | Casey Kelly |
| Middle Relief | Eric Stults/Cory Luebke/Odrisamer Despagne |
| Mop up | Eric Stults/Cory Luebke/Odrisamer Despagne |
My rotation 1-4 is as solid as any rotation in all of MLB.
Again, if we fail to compete, I won’t hesitate to trade Dickey, Quentin (if he’s having a good season), Ian Kennedy (FA after the season), Will Venable (FA). The Padres minor leagues are pretty barren, with only 1 prospect currently in many top 100 lists. It’s not going to be easy for the Padres, but I’ve tried my best.
Wow. You got robbed blind on the Alvarez deal. Considering the paucity of catchers in the game, you don’t give away guys like Grandal for free.
Player A: 108 games. .242/.302/.416 13 Hrs 25 years old
Player B: 128 games, .225/.327/.401 15 Hrs. 25 years old
Player A is Travis D’arnaud. Player B is Grandal. If the Mets didn’t have Duda, would any Met fan even remotely consider TDA for Alvarez straight up?
Padres fans would probably rip you to shreds on the Hahn deal. They hold him in the same regard that Met fans think of deGrom.
Hahn first 12 starts: 70 IP, 29 BB, 65 K’s, 50h, 2.96 ERA
deGrom first 12 starts: 73.2 IP, 28BB, 72 ks, 70h, 3.18 ERA
3rd deal is mostly fair, although i don’t see the motivation from the Brewers to do it, unless they really like Alex Torres and/or love the upside from Gyorko.
The guy who has fallen out of favor in San Diego is Cameron Maybin, and if i’m running the Padres, i would have tried to find a replacement for him. There is no way he’s a #5 hitter. He was batting mostly 7/8 this season. Plus, like Quentin, he can’t stay healthy.
The only really negative I can see about Grandal is that his OBP has taken large plunges each of the last two years, and his strikeouts really jumped up. Sanchez might have been a top 50 prospect at one point, but it looks like those days are gone, and at 26, he’s hardly a prospect anymore. This deal essentially came down to Grandal for Alvarez and throw-ins. As for the comparison that a trade of TDA for Alvarez would be crazy, I don’t think any Met fan would have said no before this season started, had we needed a first baseman so desperately. Alvarez hit 66 home runs in two years, that power doesn’t grow on trees.
For the TDA/Alvarez comparison, i was talking about right now. Not sure why you thought i was talking about last year.
Last year Alvarez was still playing 3b and coming off a career year both offensively and defensively and the Mets had an All-star playing at that position. Last year TDA couldn’t hit a lick at the major league level.
I think the Ike Davis trade established what kind of trade value that a high power potential 1b eligible for arbitration coming off a down year could have, and that isn’t an established major leaguer that can catch with multiple years of team control.
Grandal might not be the catcher for long. He spent the last 2 months playing a lot more 1B than C. He’s also coming off torn ACL/MCL surgery and might not have much of a future at C. He was also the worst in baseball at throwing out baserunners among catchers with 500+ innings behind the plate. He also hit much better while playing 1B, although his OBP is almost exactly the same.
He’s also been suspended once for PEDs (50 games) and has been linked to Biogenesis.
Also, according to Park factors, from 2010-2013, it was actually harder to hit a homer in PNC than it was in Petco. PNC doesn’t have that reputation, but it absolutely kills left handed batters. Just ask Ike Davis.
Alvarez has much more pure power potential than Grandal does. That’s what I was looking for.
Jesse Hahn is nowhere near deGrom levels. For one, his fastball averages 90.9 MPH. For a guy that had 3.93 BB/9 last year, you would think that would be a lot higher. I’m not sold on him being so great outside of Petco.
Also, it was in a salary dump to get rid of Benoit. I think Dickey could bring in a lot more prospects down the road than Hahn/Benoit.
My optimal goal throughout the year would be to flip Alvarez/Dickey/Venable/Quentin for prospects, and a qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy.
Well, herein lies the main problem of this project. Met fans trying to act as another team’s fans.
As pretend GM of another club, wouldn’t you want to fight for your own players and get the most value out of them?
Why would you market Grandal as anything less than a Catcher even if you don’t think he can play there?
Hahn is highly thought of in San Diego. You don’t shut down guys unless you think they have a really good future in front of them.
It seems like you sold pennies on the dollar for most of the players you traded away.
Yeesh. Qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy… really?
I did sell him as a catcher. The pirates were looking for a catcher.
You wouldn’t offer a QO to Ian Kennedy? He was a 3 win pitcher last year and he’s just about to throw 30. I think you still remember when he pitched for the Yankees and wasn’t so great.
16 million for a #3 pitcher? No thanks.
Also, You do realize you’re the GM for the Padres, right?
The team’s highest paid player in the last 3 years is
2014: Chase Headley: 10.525 million
2013: Carlos Quentin: 9.5 milion
2012: Huston Street: 7.5 million
There’s a greater shot of the Wilpons selling the Mets than the Padres offering Kennedy a QO.
As weak as this lineup looks, I’m wondering if it wouldn’t have been better to blow it up and trade Quentin, Smith, and Venable for the best prospects you can get. Like Quentin to the Mets for MDD and Montero, or MDD and Flores.
Marc, no matter what, you drew a team that cannot be fixed in one year.
I agree — this team could not be fixed this year.
I wonder if this offense got to bat in Coors for all 162 games and if the pitchers got to pitch in Petco for all 162 games — if that happened, could this team compete?
Well it didn’t help that the real GM doesn’t know when to pull the trigger on trades.
LIke, the Headley trade. Or the Nick Hundley trade. Both traded way too late to get any great value.
The Padres got back an almost 30 year old pitcher for Nick Hundley. And he’s already been released by the team. And the Padres threw in cash considerations.
Had they traded him after the 2013 season, he was coming off a season where he had 1.9 fWAR in just 114 games. They would have probably got a better return.
Also, how do you only get back Yangervis Solarte and Rafael de Paula for Chase Headley. Sure he was coming off a “down season” in 2013 and “only” putting up 3.6 fWAR in 141 games. They should have traded him in the offseason. Even still, they should have gotten more for him. It would be have been better to hold on to him and just give him a qualifying offer.
Quentin is worth about as close to 0 as you can get. He hasn’t played a full season since 2010, and that was only 130 games. (He was also awful that season, at -0.3 fWAR). No chance in hell the Mets trade MDD and Montero for Carlos Quentin.
Cameron Maybin is in the same boat. Hasn’t been fully healthy in years.
The Padres just signed Smith to an extension, and I tried to keep that in consideration when pretending to be GM. Obviously, if they really wanted to trade him last season they could have, as he was about to be a FA and his trade value was extremely high. They definitely wanted to keep him around. In a perfect world, I actually think trading MDD and Montero for Seth Smith is a perfect answer to the Mets problems, but I’m not exactly sold on MDD long term and the Padres don’t need pitching, they need power. Now, Brandon Nimmo….theres a guy I can get behind.
I did not do my homework on Quentin, obviously, so you’re right there. But, if they need power take MDD and Flores for Smith. But, wow, just looking at this complete roster makes me glad it wasn’t me, LOL.