Lately you’ve probably seen a couple of articles talking about a group project we’ve been doing, where we got to be the GM of a team and do a simulated offseason. I was lucky/cursed enough to get the Minnesota Twins to be my team.
You see, while the Twins have struggled and their payroll has declined over the past few seasons, they have the best farm system in all of baseball by most accounts. Not only do they have a good base of talent in the minors, plenty of it is major league ready.
This made my job pretty easy – make a few minor adjustments and let the youth movement begin. My 2015 Twins are pretty much in the same position as the 1983 Mets.
The tender/non-tender decisions I had to make were actually relatively easy, with Trevor Plouffe, Tommy Milone and Eduardo Escobar being offered arbitration, and Brian Deunsing, Jordan Schaefer, Anthony Swarzak, Casey Fein, and Eduardo Nunez being non-tendered.
After arbitration raises to those players and to the pre-arb players, my payroll sat at $87 million, and I was operating with a budget of only $90 million. I had to fill holes in left field and plug a hole in the rotation, nearly impossible with that kind of budget. Something needed to be done.
As soon as trades opened up, I began shopping around Joe Mauer. I had a first base prospect in Kennys Vargas who was ready to take over, and a first baseman who hits for very little power and makes $23 million was not appealing to me.
I contacted the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, Nationals and Rays, before finally hammering out a deal to trade Mauer (along with $10 million per year) to the Colorado Rockies for their number 1-A pitching prospect Eddie Butler. Butler has his flaws for sure, but a guy who throws 97 with a good changeup was a decent return for a move that was mostly a salary dump by me. Dealing Mauer allowed me an additional $13 million to work with in my budget.
My plan was to sink all of that newfound budget freedom into signing Cuban outfielder Yasmani Tomas in free agency. When I was outbid for Tomas, I settled for a combination of Matt Joyce at $9 million, and a flier on Kris Medlen for $6 million. That’s probably an overpay for Medlen, but hindsight is always 20/20.
Overall I’m pretty satisfied with the way that the “offseason” panned out, though I would’ve preferred Tomas, you can’t win ‘em all. Here’s what I project the Opening Day starters to be with my current roster:
| Pos. | Name | Steamer Proj. fWAR/150 |
|---|---|---|
| C | Kurt Suzuki | 2.5 |
| 1B | Josmil Pinto | 3.4 |
| 2B | Brian Dozier | 2.8 |
| 3B | Trevor Plouffe | 2.3 |
| SS | Danny Santana | 2 |
| LF | Matt Joyce | 2.6 |
| CF | Aaron Hicks | 1.8 |
| RF | Oswaldo Arcia | 2.5 |
| DH | Kennys Vargas | 1.7 |
That’s almost shockingly good. Of course, expecting a catcher like Kurt Suzuki to play 150 games is unreasonable, and as far as Josmil Pinto goes, I wouldn’t bet on him getting 3.4 fWAR if he reaches 150 games.
I’m a little less enthusiastic about the starting pitching, but I like the young combo of Trevor May and Eddie Butler at the back end for their future potential.
| Pos. | Name | Steamer Proj. FIP |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phil Hughes | 3.89 |
| 2 | Ricky Nolasco | 4.18 |
| 3 | Tommy Milone | 4.55 |
| 4 | Trevor May | 4.77 |
| 5 | Eddie Butler | 5.01 |
That leaves a bullpen comprised of some combination of Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Medlen, Mike Pelfrey, Caleb Thielbar, Stephen Pryor, Kyle Gibson, AJ Achter, Logan Darnell, Kris Johnson, Lester Oliveros, Ryan Pressly and Aaron Thompson. Pelfrey would be competing for a starting spot in spring training, but he’s probably best suited as a reliever, and when Medlen returns from his injury, I want to put him in as a relief ace to pair with the incumbent closer Perkins.
This roster will cost $87.6 million in 2015. And while this roster is likely enough to push the Twins past the 70 wins they earned in 2014, there is more to come. The top prospect in all of baseball Byron Buxton should be up by the beginning of 2016 at latest, likewise slugging third baseman Miguel Sano. Kohl Stewart, Alex Meyer and Jose Berrios are knocking on the door of joining the pitching staff in the next two seasons.
Being the GM of the Twins for the past two weeks has been fun, and has taught me that it won’t be long before Minnesota is a top contender in the American League.
Loved the Mauer move, but the Twins can also use some leadership in the form of productive and winning players, like Hernandez was. An example could be Aramis Ramirez at third, or getting a Marlon Byrd for RF and if you have young pitchers spend on Russell Martin to guide them.
No offense to the Colorado GM, but trading for Mauer is beyond stupid.
1. The Rockies, like the Twins, need all the pitching they can get their hands on.
2. They already have Morneau under contract next season (and much cheaper) so where are you going to play him? There’s no DH in the NL.
Like i said earlier, surprised you did so little to address the pitching, but looks like you’re leaving it completely up to the youngsters. If they don’t work out, it has the potential to be the worst staff in the game.
-Hughes had a historic season in terms of SO/BB. It came out of the blue though, but he was mostly #4/5 guy with the Yankees before then.
-Nolasco was a complete disaster last year, and at his best is a borderline #3.
-Milone is still relatively young and has a decent career ERA, but he’s been a killer on the bullpen the last few years averaging well under 6 IP per start.
-Trevor May and Butler both got pummeled in their few starts, but luckily it was their first taste in the majors and still have upside.
I agree with Name. Your team has potential to surprise, but until those young guys start playing in the Twin Cities, it looks like it will still be a rough go in 2015. I guess Mauer to Colorado means he’ll split time with Morneau and Rosario? Wonder what the Rockies GM has to say about that.
I loved the game plain you had. Shed money and try to make a big splash in the offseason by going for Yasmani. Even though it didn’t work, Matt Joyce is a solid addition, and the Medlen deal is a decent low risk, high reward type of signing.
I still don’t know who would want to acquire Joe Mauer, but hey, getting a top prospect for him is a steal. Berrios, Butler, Buxton and Sano in a couple of years? Twins would be looking very promising to be in contention.
Joe isn’t Pelfrey making 5 million this year? For a team on a tight budget that’s being very generous to have him as your long man out of the pen. Perhaps you could of thrown him in the Rockies deal? By the way who was the “GM” for Colorado?