This year’s World Series was played by the Kansas City Royals, and the San Francisco Giants, with the Giants coming out on top. Both the Royals and the Giants won a Wild Card seed in their respective leagues. In the American League, the Royals won the number one Wild Card seed with a record of 89-73, whilst the Giants won the National League’s second Wild Card seed with a record of with a record of 88-74. Both teams were very close in records, and neither was projected to do too well in the playoffs…largely due to the new Wild Card format. The way the Wild Card has worked the past three years has been that two teams will play a one-game playoff to see who shall advance and play the top team in their respective league. This was meant to penalize the Wild Card teams, because the idea was that the team would lose their number one starter going into the League Division Series. But this did not affect the Royals or the Giants. So what does this have to do with the Mets? Well, next year the Mets will hope to have a starting rotation headed by Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard…and with a starting rotation like that, the Wild Card Game should not affect the Mets one bit.
With Harvey coming back next season and Syndergaard likely to be called up, the Mets should win at least 15 more games in 2015. But the Nationals do not seem to be going anywhere anytime soon, so the Mets should aim for a Wild Card seed. Although this seems like an odd goal, being that the one-game playoff should negatively affect the team in the Post Season, it may actually be better for the Mets, due to the obvious lack of thought given by Major League Baseball when coming up with this new playoff format.
Think of it this way: the Mets play the Wild Card game, and give the ball to Harvey. Harvey wins the game for the Mets, and now he cannot start game one of the NLCS. However, the matchup would look something like this:
Game 1. Best Record in the National League’s Ace against the Mets number two starter
Game 2. Best Record in the National League’s number two starter against the Mets number three starter
Game 3. Best Record in the National League’s number three starter against the Mets number four starter or the Harvey (the Mets’ Ace).
In each of these three matchups (being that it is a best of five series), the Mets never do seemed to be overmatched. In the predicted one through four starting rotation, each one of those pitchers could easily go up against another team’s ace/number two starter, but try and think of a number three starter that could go up against Harvey.
As for the offensive side of things, the biggest contributor to a team’s succeeding offense is momentum, and as seen in the playoffs for many years, not playing for a week+ while their opposition played more recently can easily, and negatively, affect a ball club. So, if the Mets play in the Wild Card game and win, their offense would have more momentum than their next opponent who would be the team with the best record in the National League. This will give the Mets an advantage, because not only will their pitching and offense be hot and ready for action, but the opposition’s pitching and offense would be cold coming off the bench.
Dan. First and foremost. the Mets are Never going to give the ball to Harvey in a playoff game (not in 2015). Simply because Harvey is coming back from TJ surgery. Just take a look and see what the Nat’s did with their young phenom Strasburg. So you can forecast the FO will follow the advice of the team doctors and limit Harvey to 160? innings. Which means he gets shut down in late August or early September.So I don’t think your scenario is realistic. I really would be shocked if the Mets were to win 10 more games in 2015. I don’t think Sandy will make the same mistake again and pronounce his team fit to win 90 games.
Harvey/No Harvey—this team should plan and state their intention to compete without limitations.
A left fielder or SS, return to performance by Wright and Grandy///// that should get you to 85-88 wins “as a plan”….more possible!
The Playoff Pitching scenario is that at least one Starting Picher needs to go deep in Games…..It’s “The Hot Goalie Effect”….Hershheiser/Johnson/Baumgardner, etc. It also improves bullpen performance. Bullpens are more effective when you limit both innings and opponent “looks” at your repertoire, most especially in 7 games series with deep scouting profiles.
It’s time—Put them on the Clock!!!!!
Or what will you do if they don’t meet your expectations Eraff? Boycott? Were they not expected to compete for a playoff spot this year? Didn’t Sandy say he expected this team has the ability to win 90 games? Didn’t Alderson get a new 3 year contract? So I guess the Wilpons are not going to fire him if the Mets lose 90 games next year. Ah yes. I hear the clock ticking and the Wilpons are still the owners of the Mets.
First and foremost the 14 Royals and 15 Mets are completely unrelated in any way. There simply is no tangible connection that exists between the two. It makes as much sense as appealing to history to determine the outcome of a series…like the last 10 game 7s were won by the home team. So what? The 86 Mets dont have any connection to the ’14 Giants.
Second, Matt Harvey has not been a win machine of any sort, no matter how killer he is on the hill. As noted, he will be in an IP limit around 160-170 is my guess. So unless they stagger his starts all season, he wont be tossing in Sept, let alone Oct. Syndergaard hardly means wins either. He’s clearly not MLB ready and having a hard enough time in AAA trying to understand that professional hitters can barrel up a 97 mph fastball. Imagine that when he sees the Nats.
Third, we have no clue what the hot stove season will bring the Mets. Adding an arm back will not somehow propel us to 10-15 more wins. Nor will bringing in the fences. Look at what we saw this WS: absolute professional hitters that work counts and make contact and get hits. We have people that work the count and K, or pop up or ground out right to an infielder. Given a budget that will apparently have to grow just to stay in place, I cant imagine where this team finds more Ws. The Braves are now being spearheaded by a great guy in the FO…their lapse to crap will be short. The Nats…really…what needs to be said? In any event, the fist big move in the off season seems to be with the Cubs signing Maddon. Jed/Theo are all in for 2015 it appears. Where is SA? Still looking lost for change behind Keith’s Grill.
well put.
I really like your point about professional hitting. It’s not easily quantifiable, as it’s not always with two strikes or guys on base. It’s hitting the ball to the correct spots when needed. That’s something the Kevin Long needs to work with our hitters on. Moving runners over, hitting the ball hard on sacrifice flies, and you know, not striking out all the goddamn time.
I agree Patrick. With the parity in MLB as it is now, situational hitting becomes so important. Morse making contact to right on that 0-2 heater inside was huge last night, not to mention the three combined sac flies. Those at-bats don’t get the headlines, but the Mets were putrid in many of those spots last year. Big reason they lost 10 of their first 30 one run games.
Patrick what about with the bases loaded? Most hitters thrive in that situation. How well did the Mets hit with the bases loaded in 2014? How many grand slams did they hit? One? The WS showed how invaluable productive outs are when facing elite pitching. And Bochy is the best modern era manager.
Chris I couldn’t have said it better than that. I just wanted to add one thing. Actions speak louder than words. All you heard from Alderson was that there was money in the budget for upgrades this past season. What happened? After trading Ike the payroll was down to a little over 80 million. To me the inactivity spoke volumes as to the current situation at Citifield. All we hear and see are simply cosmetic changes (moving in the fences). But the truth is the Wilpons are not putting any of the additional revenue from the new MLB contracts back into the team.. And that in it of itself is a “Giant” red flag!
Right on pete. All talk, no walk.
Theo and Jed strapped their big boy britches on and fired renteria, even though he had 2 years left…and took Maddon, who adds 6-8 wins automatically. Imagine this: if Collins s were released would anyone be calling his cell number? Umm, no.
Only his wife to remind him to buy some milk and cookies for his retirement