As the New York Mets continue to figure out their trading options this offseason, one position has become abundantly full. After the emergence of the newly crowned Rookie of the Year, Jacob deGrom, the New York Mets have a starting pitcher that they have to place in the starting rotation come next season.
That leaves Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, deGrom, Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese and Dillon Gee as six pitchers looking to fill five spots. Among them, Harvey, Wheeler and deGrom are all but guarantees. The other three, however, are reportedly on the trading block according to Mike Puma of NY Post via Twitter.
While it would be nice to start five and make the odd man out into a long reliever/spot starter, the team seems insistent that they would rather trade one in a package for a potential short stop. Adam Rubin of ESPN NY reports that team GM Sandy Alderson not only names them, but states that he’d prefer the likely trade candidate to be dealt before Spring Training.
Of these three, which one is the most likely to go? Let’s take a closer look at them. First, is Dillon Gee. Gee is facing arbitration and could earn upwards of about $5M or so next season. His numbers were not up to par with the rest of the rotation (7-8 record, 4.00 ERA in 22 starts), but he still performed well.
With his health on the rebound and his 2015 numbers not exactly a given, Gee may not be worth the amount the Mets are paying. That is a contract that Alderson wouldn’t mind moving. Given his age (28) and his ability to pitch out of the bullpen, he would certainly be an attractive candidate to a potential buyer.
Next is Bartolo Colon. While Colon’s salary for 2015 ($11M) could seem to be a deterrent, he brings two things the other two may not; a veteran presence and a consistency. Colon (15-13 record, 4.09 ERA) has almost a guarantee for double digit wins in his career, when he is healthy. That is the key, however.
His health seems to be on track more now than in seasons past, but with his age (41), that could be just one inning or even one pitch from changing at any time. With that said, Colon does have playoff pitching experience (2-4 record in 10 starts with a 3.70 ERA) and veteran intangibles that playoff teams covet.
He could certainly be an asset to the 2015 Mets as they eye a spot in October, but he is also a beneficial component that can be dealt for the same reasons that he could be valued to stay here. In addition, if the Mets agree to pay a portion of his salary, it would enable them to ask for a higher value in return, depending on how much they pay exactly.
Finally is Jon Niese. While Niese (9-11 record, 3.40 ERA) has a 2015 salary of $7M, his contract is heavily loaded in the back end with a total of $30M due in the final three years, depending on options being picked up. His age (28), like Gee, is an attractive quality. Another quality, like Colon, is that the team can pay part of his contract to get a better value in return.
Unlike the previous two, however, Niese has reportedly had altercations with manager Terry Collins. While the team denies this will have any effect on his possibility to be traded, it’s hard to believe that the team will be vocal about how they back their manager like they have this offseason and still back a player that has has issues with that manager.
In closing, of the three, with contracts, upsides and value in return all considered, Jon Niese seems the most likely to be dealt. He has the most attractive upside to a team trying to make a playoff push for the next few years and not just one season.
In addition, Niese has the most flexible contract with two options still remaining. He could get the Mets the best talent back due to his age and his track record. Also, lefties seem to be a little more uncommon in the trade market and, therefore, more attractive to a given GM.
If there is a deal to be made that involves moving a current rotation starter, then moving Jon Niese would make the most sense.
It should be Niese, but Gee is probably the one to go. Rumors abound that teams are wary of Niese’ shoulder, which they should be, as should the Mets. The more I look at the SS market, the more I think the Mets will get Miller or Gregoriuos, trade Murphy and move Flores to second. Defense up the middle would be better and they’d get a cheap, under control player for several years.
If the Mets play the market right, Gee and/or Montero could get such a deal done.
My guess is that the Mets will just clear one starter from the mix for now. I could see that being Dillon Gee for a compensatory first round draft pick to say the Pirates or Royals. That would leave Colon here to rebuild some of his trade value. I really think that his mom’s battle with cancer impacted his pitching and he will be more of a top of a rotation starter next year. I would love to see Mets trade two starters to augment farm system or good glove shortstop to pair with Flores or Lefthanded reliever. I would like to see fifth spot to be competition between Montero, Syndergaard, Matz, Mazzoni, Verrett, or whichever else prospect might be ready.
You can’t trade future draft picks and you can’t trade a recent draft pick until he’s been in the system for one year.
You can trade compensatory round draft picks. The competitive balance picks after first round that are technically still first round picks can be traded. You are incorrect.
While what you say is true, the Pirates and Marlins did pull off a trade on June 1st of this year where the Pirates sent Bryan Morris to Miami for their Competitive Balance Pick, #39 in the 2014 draft.
This is correct. A competitive balance pick can be traded but not every team has a competitive balance pick. Neither the Pirates nor Royals have a 2015 competitive balance pick. See here for a list of teams that do:
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/85923640/competitive-balance-lottery-pays-out-12-draft-picks
I guess you’re expectations are a little lower than mine Frank. Colon making 11 million dollars for what would appear to be a below average NL pitcher. I pause to wonder how many teams will be knocking on Sandy’s door to take on 11 million for what amounts to numbers that you get from a 4th or 5th starter. Not many if any. Gee at 5 million gives you basically the same results as Colon for half the price. Health being an issue for any package deal the Mets may try to complete would suggest Gee being your best candidate. I don’t know how you can consider the odd man out of the rotation going to the pen. Gee and his 5+ million in the pen? Not very realistic. Our cheap, broke owners are going to have the 6th starter sit on a bench in the pen to pitch to 1 batter or an inning? Doesn’t sound very Aldersonish. Besides the Mets have Torres as your long man. No it doesn’t work Frank. With Syndergaard and others waiting in Las Vegas the Mets need to remove some of the duplication at the lower end of their rotation. They have cheaper options that will provide the same results.
While it’s not Plan A or Plan B, I can see a scenario where Gee is in the bullpen at the beginning of the year.
My scenario involves Castro (and I don;t really believe he’s available)— that scenario is clearly one that involves a high quality, young and under control pitcher—Wheeler would be my guess. If at all doable, it would involve Wheeler or Degrom—and I would do that.
Alexi Ramirez?…. not sure I’d aquire a guy at the back end on a 2 year deal for W or Jake—-that would be a Niese, Gee situation (as base parts). I would also do that.
That is also how I would approach it Eraff. I would also consider Brad Miller similar to the proposed Ramirez trade.
Miller?….. I’m not sure. He has an exciting swing, at times. I haven’t seen that much of him. Can he actually play SS? Miller and Murphy and Pray for K’s?…or is he better than that?
Based on his UZR , Miller is an average fielding SS. Miller is the third trade option after Castro and Ramirez. I prefer him over Flores because he has experience at the position on the major league level and has put up a 736 OPS and 105 RC+ in a 335 PA season in 2013.
Why should Wheeler be untouchable? You”ve got a guy with reputation and potential of a top end starter, yet in reality he’s putting up stats of a 3/4 starter. Seems like a great sell high opportunity to me.
exactly, but the rumor is that wheeler is made of gold around Queens. He aint going nowhere.
I know tons of people around here idolize the Cardinals organization, and one thing they are not afraid of is trading popular/young/homegrown players when the price and timing is right.
-They let Pujols walk when he turned down their big offer
-They traded away David Freese just 1 year after they won the World series and was named mvp.
-They just traded former top prospect Shelby Miller to the Braves.
-Traded 2 homegrown and productive players in Kelly/Craig this past summer to the Red Sox
Just saying that if you are getting equitable value back in return, there’s no reason not to consider Wheeler or deGrom or any young player for that matter. Trading a $4 asset for a $5 asset is just as good as swapping $2 for $3.
And because i can’t resist, has Alderson done anything during this timespan?
I think Colon is the most likely trade candidate. His track record of success gives him some good value and unlike Gee and Niese, he’s been able to stay off the DL. I can see the Mets being the most aggressive in shopping him around.
Let’s not look at it logically, but rather from Alderson’s thought process: he would trade Gee because eating Colon’s money doesn’t show well in the market. Team’s will think you’re bluffing if you say it in the future. Niese had a run-in with Collins, but when he leaves, he will have alot to say that we don’t want coming out. Gee isn’t going to get too much better. Whatever his value is now, it will be in May, or June, or July. A MLB pitcher; think Piniero, or Harang, or Colon.
However, if the Mets trade two, Niese is gone.
I’m still in favor of signing the Cuban shortstop and having Flores hold the spot warm.
“Keeping the spot warm” is a bd option. They have Pitching now…. 34 YO and 36 YO OF’er in the Center of the lineup—Hopefyully, a Helthy David Wright……it’s time to win! You can win later too, but they should win now.
I think that Niese or Gee will be traded before Colon because in a trade they have greater value than Colon. I don’t think other GM’s are saying ” I’ll make the trade if you throw in Colon and his $11m salary”. They may consider a $5m Gee with two years of control or the $7m Niese with the multiple options.
The Colon signing never made much sense to me as I think it impeded Montero and Syndergard. Hopefully Colon can be moved by the 2015 trade deadline.
I think the latest news about Niese’s bum shoulder will put the kabash on any deal involving him until Spring Training, if one is going to be made at all.
Caution on the Pitching Depth… Harvey is an unknown. For all assumptions about TJ Surgery, I “give you” Steve Matz. His surgery is now assessed as a success, but it took at least 2 full years for him to regain a workload.
Niese and Gee have always struggled above 170 innings. Colon is in the last year of his deal. Starters need to provide about 900 innings as a milestone toward some success. Syndee did 130 last year. Harvey is probaby gonna be at 150, if he can. Gee and Niese ended the year in questionable health. Sadly, I assume at least one major arm injusry every two years—if not more.
That leaves you with a very young, developing staff after 2015. Wheeler and Degrom need to solidly establish their levels…. Harvey will hopefully return. Montero and Syndee are not yet ML Starters….we hope they will be.
Pitching is fleeting…. use it while you have it—go for it in 2015!!!
You might be estimating a bit low. The bottom total in the league last year was 905.1 by the Cubs.
The 2014 starters for the Mets gave 985 innings, which ranked sixth in the league.
agree— appreciate the research. Just a point that Pitching is fleeting. The latest Yankee run featured an amazing depth of starters in addition to anchor staff guys.
The real point is that 2016 almost certainly includes 2/3 of Gee/Niese/Colon gone from the roster—and it may be all of them. That’s 350-550 inning Hit, and a big reduction in depth. Projecting ahead would be DeGrom-Wheeler-Matz-Syndee-Monte-Harvey…. that’s a pretty big shift and assumption of Depth and Readiness—and Health!
The Message— go for it in ’15! Don’t sacrifice the entire furture, but make something of what you have now.
Gee’s never pitched out of the pen.. From the June 2013 thru May of 2014, Gee was probably on of the top 20 starters in the NL. His issue is can he put together a full season and stay off the DL with various things (blot clot, serious but now not an issue and then other ailments). But he’s a bull dog and can keep teams in the game
Colon’s health has never been questioned… his age is the question… does he have another year in him? Last year he showed that his consistency declined.. he’d have a couple of good starts and then a very bad one. For the right team, his likely 200+ innings could be a boon.
Niese is a Lefty with good control and movement… hard to find. he’s not expensive and under control for a number of years… There’s value in that arm.. we’re just not sure if there’s value in that shoulder. That’s the risk other team’s must assume if they want him.
I don’t think we get much for Colon under any circumstance except for a salary dump (unless we pay some) . We should get a decent player… (Chris Taylor) for the likes of Gee or more likely Niese if a team is willing to accept the risk.
I think the original premise is quite mistaken at any level. To survive a full season, a team will need 8 or so starting pitchers. I get the desire to figure out how to dump one or all of GNC, but reality dictates we need plenty of MLB level starters if ’15 is a year of October baseball (Im not at all as optimistic as the hype).
No matter the contract on Niese, he’s immovable as a centerpiece for a trade. He has a shoulder issue. Its way worse than an elbow issue. His arm could fly off any moment, and his velo has plummeted so his FB are at 87-89 mph. Gee’s situation is hardly any better. As for Colon, maybe someone in July needs insurance for 5M$ and we get a no-name prospect. We may need him for fall baseball, but Im not holding my breath.