Late Friday, news broke that the Oakland Athletics had agreed to a trade sending star third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie and three prospects. Many were baffled by the trade, but it’s impossible to see how.
For years the Oakland Athletics have been cash-strapped for the past 20 years, which led to Moneyball and everything that has followed. Last year they had an $82 million payroll, the highest in team history. Donaldson is a soon-to-be-29-year-old coming off of two MVP-caliber seasons who hits arbitration after 2015 and figures to get very expensive. They sold him off at what figures to be his highest trade value and got themselves a nice return. We’ve seen this before from Billy Beane and we’ll surely see it again.
In Sandy Alderson’s first few years as Mets general manager, he had some similar decisions to make. Namely, should he trade Jose Reyes in 2011 and David Wright in 2012.
Both at the time and now in hindsight, the correct move was to hang on to Reyes in 2011 and allow him to walk as a free agent (if there was to be assumed no chance of him returning). Reyes got off to a rocket fast start that year, but had began to cool down before he was bit by the injury bug conveniently in July, effectively killing a good portion of his trade value. Alderson instead opted to hang on to Reyes, who of course signed with the Miami Marlins in the offseason. The draft picks the Mets received in compensation have turned out to be Kevin Plawecki and Matt Reynolds, both of whom are consensus top-15 players in the Mets system and should be appearing in Flushing for the first time in 2015.
The water is a little bit more murky when it comes to the Wright deal. He was 29 at the time, much like Donaldson, but coming off of a horrific broken-back-filled 2011 season and having a splendid first-half in 2012. The Mets of course kept Wright and signed him to the 8-year, $138 million deal at the end of the year, but might it have been smarter for Alderson to pull a Beane and trade the team’s best player for all he could get?
It depends. If Alderson could have gotten a return for Wright equal to what Beane got for Donaldson, it probably would have been better for the long-term growth of the organization to deal the captain, as beloved as he is. To bring in a few guys who through the sum of their parts could produce more than an aging Wright could at a cheaper price is almost a no-brainer. If that offer wasn’t on the table, and you were assured of resigning him at the end of the season, hanging on was certainly the right move.
What say you? In hindsight, should Sandy Alderson have traded David Wright? What would you want back in such a trade if one were to have happened?
No. Each team has room for a franchise player, and ours is David Wright. He will be Mets FO material one way or another.
There is very little chance that the Mets could have gotten such a haul for Wright.
Donaldson is arbitration eligible for 4 more seasons. I’d say a rough “worst-case” in terms of dollar value would be 5,10,15,20 for those next 4 seasons. That’s an AAV of 12.5 million over those 4 seasons, a bargain if Donaldson continues to produce at that level, and still a good deal if he only produced half of what he’s doing right now.
Wright was set to make 15 million in 2012. He had a club option for 2013 at 16 million. He could have voided that option if he were traded and one would assume he would have done so. So basically, the acquiring team would only get 1 year of Wright at $15 mil, in which the return would have been closer to what the Braves got for Jason Heyward. If the team acquiring him was given the option to negotiate an extension, i think it’s fair to assume that he would have been asking for $100 mil+ in an extension, also seriously inhibiting his value on the trade market.
Of the traditional big market teams, the Yankees were already stuck with A-Rod, the Red Sox still had Youk coming off a good 2011, he obviously wasn’t going to the Phillies, and the Rangers had Beltre.
That leaves only the realistic options as the Dodgers, who later made that blockbuster with the Red Sox late 2012, the Angels, and the Tigers, who later signed Fielder to that monster contract.
It would have been like a Santana redux in that there were only a few suitors and the deal was contigent on an extension being done. The prospects would have been better than if Wright were only traded with 1 year guaranteed, but it would have been more complicated for a deal to come together and it’s still doubtful that haul would be close to what the A’s got for Donaldson since Wright was coming off a down year.
Very astute Name. You list all the major points, and I agree wholeheartedly. We wouldn’t have received anything similar, and we would have given away our franchise leader. The way things happened were the only logical choices.
Remember, Alderson had to make two decisions. The first was in 2011 on whether he wanted to invest in Reyes or Wright. He chose Wright.
Then in 2012 he had to choose between R.A. Dickey and Wright. He chose Wright again.
Alderson was given a mess in 2011 with overpaid stars such as Reyes, Wright, Beltran, K-Rod, and Santana. While he might have been able to get some value out of Wright, how many tickets would he have given up? Is Murphy’s .734 OPS good enough to make up for him? No. I think that you make a good point in saying that Wright could have gotten a nice haul, but he chose to keep the player that had the best potential to continue production through his 30’s. Will he? It remains to be seen. But he made the gamble and now Mets fans must live through it.
Wright in his new contract has accumulated 8.6 bWAR in the first two years of his contract and has been paid $31M. He needs to average 3.6 bWar a season the rest of the way for him to have earned his contract. Last year’s injury 2.8 bWAR should be indicative that he should be able to pad that 3.6 bWAR goal. In 2012 Wright was one of the best third baseman in baseball.
Reyes in his first 3 years of his contract has accumulated an 8.3 bWAR and has been paid $36M. He needs to average a 4.3 bWAR a season the rest of the way for him to have earned is contract. Reyes put up a 4.7 bWAR in his last season with the Mets and hasn’t done it since. Reyes at the end of the 2011 season was one of the best shortstops in baseball. Reyes wanted more money than Alderson was ever willing to spend. It looks so far like not signing Reyes was the correct call by Sandy.
If Sandy wasn’t going to spend then I would have preferred a trade and “Sandy to be more like Billy Beane”. I believe that the Mets have gotten lucky with the two compensation picks but if Sandy would have traded Reyes (rumor was Aybar and a prospect) then the fans might not have had to suffer the last three years waiting for Plawecki and Reynolds to mature.
David Wright was an emotional decision that if the trend continues, it will end up being a terrible contract. If he bounces back…
Admittedly, I did not want to see him leave, but looking at his numbers and the potential return at the time, it was tough.
This is similar to the RA Dickey trade, but I supported it due to his age.
I think some of us “older” guys who remember the one team for life era are more hard pressed than the younger, at least emotionally,as younger fans seem to be able to embrace, for example, a short term contract to an aging player with “win today” in mind.
If find it more exciting to lose with youth and promise than to be .500 with vets.
I think that Noah S has more upside than is currently bantered about. I hate when trade talk involving him, Wheeler, DeGrom or Harvey surfaces. There are others we can trade, but these four represent promise.
I know we need bats but few teams do not.
I believe the number of people who actually only played for one team for life in the past is highly romanticized.
Only 19 of the top 50 hitters in bWAR since World War II played with one team and that includes players of the last 20 years like Ripken, Chipper, Bagwell, Jeter, Larkin, Gwynn and Edgar. Meanwhile, Hank Aaron, Rod Carew, Carlton Fisk, Bobby Grich, Reggie Jackson, Willie Mays, Joe Morgan, Eddie Mathews, Frank Robinson, Pete Rose and Ron Santo are examples of stars from the 50s, 60s and 70s who did not play their careers with one team.
While I agree that I’d rather build with youth than tread water with vets, that cuts both ways. It means you don’t keep starting the Grotes and Harrelsons of the world because they helped you to the World Series five years ago.
Mr. Joura said it.