With the MLB Winter Meetings to start next Monday all the teams are checking the price tags of free agents and gauging interest on what is available in trade. Sandy Alderson has a few goals for the winter meetings that have been made apparent. He is looking to trade one of Dillon Gee, Jon Niese, and Bartolo Colon. Find a right-handed outfield bat that can start sometimes when Michael Cuddyer starts at first base. Settle the situation surrounding the Mets shortstop position.
One team that Alderson should look at to do some gift swapping with are the Rangers. The Ranger did not have any starting pitcher pitch thirty games and only had four pitchers start more than twenty games. Going into 2015 the Rangers are in need of some cheap reliable starting pitching as the only big contract coming off the books and other contracts increasing such as, Elvis Andrus. One player that the Mets could look to acquire is outfielder Michael Choice. Formerly a first round pick from the 2010 draft, he has not quite panned out the way the A’s had hoped and traded him to the Rangers. He seems to be the type of player that Alderson wants to acquire. He is a right-handed bat that has pop and walks a decent amount and he can play all three outfield positions. Although no success at the major league level yet Choice could be viewed as a right-handed version of Kirk Nieuwenhuis and could pair well with him or Matt den Dekker. A mega-deal that for the right price could occur between the two. If the Rangers would be willing to eat a very significant portion of Andrus’ contract then a deal along the lines of Gee and Rafael Montero for Andrus and Choice with a few other parts mixed in as well. The problem he does not hit for much power and he does not get on base all that much. He provides good defense and steals some bases, but he has a contract that takes him through at least 2022 and being owed around $15 million a year. Will Alderson make a giant move like that probably not, but the Rangers are definitely a team to look at.
Another team to look at are the Boston Red Sox. After blowing up their rotation at trade deadline they were left with few options in the rotation. With the uncertainty of Jon Lester and the big contracts handed to Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, the Red Sox could look to the Mets for some pitching. Based on Fenway Park, Jon Niese makes the most sense out of the three for Boston has he has the highest GB/FB rate at 0.98 for his career. Boston needs to make some moves as they have too many hitters for so few spots making players like Shane Victorino, Yoenis Cespedes, Jackie Bradley, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava, Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogaerts available to be traded. Victorino, Cespedes, and Craig would all be nice additions, but they have big money contracts that Alderson would likely not be willing to pay and they would not likely get sufficient playing time. Bradley, Betts, and Bogaerts are all prospects that if the Mets received they could flip for other pieces or use at shortstop. That leaves Nava, an interesting candidate for the Mets. There is definitely no room in the outfield for Nava as he way down on the depth chart. Over a full season back in 2013 he performed well for the Red Sox hitting .303 with 12 home runs. He play a decent outfield, but can also play first base if he is needed and he has some pop, which would be nice off the bench. If the Mets could swing Niese for Nava and Double-A pitcher Luis Diaz or a similar player, one with potential in a few years, then it might be worth it for the Mets. The move sheds a little salary, shortens the list for starting pitcher candidates, gets a right-handed outfield bat, and invests in a player who could help the Mets in a few years.
The Mariners are another team that have been mentioned in rumors with the Mets. The Mariners could look to add a starting pitcher as a stop gap for some of their young arms approaching the major leagues or in place of one of them because of using them in trade. One player that has been mention multiple times in reports is Mariners middle-infielder Brad Miller. So far in the majors he has hit more some power, but has not hit for a high average. He would be a great late-inning replacement for either Wilmer Flores or Daniel Murphy in 2015. It sounds a little obscure to trade one of the starting pitchers for a back-up middle-infielder, but if the Mets could trade Colon for Miller than it could work out. Colon has pitched well at Safeco Field, with a 13-1 record in 15 starts and a 2.12 ERA topped up with him taking a perfect game into the seventh inning last year at Safeco. The Mets would probably eat around $4-5 million dollars on this deal, but it would save them that few million that they could use to go get a right-handed bat. Miller is better defensively the Tejada and he gives a suitable partner to Flores.
Alderson has a few moves that he should look to make that make sense for both teams that involve the stockpile of starting pitching. It is a good thing and a detriment that Alderson tries to get as much for his players as physically possible in trades, but it could hurt him here as every team knows that he is actively shopping the three pitchers and prefers not to deal the younger pitchers. Alderson could just wait until spring training to make any moves involving the pitchers as teams get closer to Opening Day and realize a need for starting pitching that they had yet to fill.
Nice presentation of options.
Would the BoSox take Colon for Victorino who is rehabbing back surgery and is only a 1 year committment at $13M, just $2M more than Colon? The asking price on Bogaerts would be more than Niese, Gee or Colon and a prospect. Nava would be an interesting 5th OF pickup.
I also think Brad Miller would be an upgrade at SS for either Gee or Niese.
Texas also has Profar but I don’t think Niese and Plawecki would entice the Rangers. I am also not sold on Profar yet because a lot of young potential but no strong results . In regard to Andrus, he is too expensive and long term to commit the SS position to.
I just hope the holiday shopping brings in an upgrade at SS and a right handed hitting outfielder.
I do not think the Red Sox would want Colon as much as they would want Niese. Colon in 2014 had a GB/FB of 0.67 which would probably not be the best for Fenway park. I do not think they would get Bogaerts in a deal for any of them unless it included someone like Syndergaard.
I like Flores a lot and think he should be the starting shortstop unless the Mets could get someone like Tulowitzki or Castro on a reasonable deal. I like Miller because he provides a better defensive replacement option that is filled right now by Tejada.
I could see the Rangers being interested in Plawecki because they do not have any one as the definite catcher for 2014, but they do have a top 100 prospect catcher in Double-A right now, but his bat is not there really. Gee and Plawecki for Choice and Profar could be an interesting deal.
I agree on Andrus he is good, but he is not $15 million good for that long of a contract. Profar scares me a bit, but also he is only 21 years old. He didn’t play in 2014, so I would like to wait and see during spring training if he is healthy and can play well before giving up Plawecki for him.
If the Mets can’t hook up with the Rangers to make a deal it would be a shame. This is so because the Rangers need 2 starters.
If they can get rid of Andrus great. On one hand, Andrus is coming off a down year. On the other hand, he is still right after Adrelton Simmons defensively and has stolen over 40 bases with this just being a down year, so he is pretty good.
If I’m Jon Daniels: I try to trade Andrus, but if the Mets give me a good youngster and a veteran (i.e.: Wheeler and Gee) for Profar, I have to take it.
If I’m Sandy Alderson: I want to hold on to my young studs but need a SS and a leadoff hitter. If I want to hold onto the kids, I trade for Andrus and give them Niese and Gee while asking them to throw in $5MM a year. However, Profar is young and super talented unlike any I will find out there too easily or cheaply.
This just seems too perfect for both these teams because the Rangers not only need an infusion of young pitching but a veteran to win now. If I’m Daniels I trade Profar because Andrus is only 26, but Andrus for two veterans and a bullpen arm like Black or Mazzoni is more than they can expect to get anywhere else.
IMHO
In reading my post, it’s all over the map. Sorry.
But, my point is that Profar’s talent will bring better pitching to the Rangers while Andrus is still only 26. But, if I want to keep Profar, I need to expect a bit less in talent.
Alderson may want to get some money thrown in if he gets Andrus, but it’s hard to say how much he should get when Niese is getting 7, 8, 10, 11 in the next four years and Gee will get 5 this year and about 7 next, then be a free agent.
Don’t really have the perfect answer to this dilemma, but these two have to be able to figure something out.
I would try for Luis Sardina instead for Montero. He would become our leadoff hitter.
Pitching depth to trade? I don’t believe that’s so obvious. Trading Niese and Gee for a SS?— you’re surrendering 350-400 professional innings and banking on a Perfect recovery by Harvey and no pitching down time for the balance of your starters.
Harvery is coming of TJ. BTW, many of you might be hot and heavy on Matz… it took him 2 full years to recover from TJ, and he pitched less than 100 innings in that 3rd year. Harvey isn’t Superman—He’s a recovering Surgical Patient. There is no “normal”.
Matz, Montero and Syndy have yet to establish MLB credentials— Matz pitched 140 Innings Last year….Monte 140…Syndy 133.
Wheeler and Degrom are hopefully ready for 360-400 innings combined. That leaves an ancient fat guy…and I’m surprised with every additional inning. Frankly, I assume nothing about him, other than the fact that he’ll make 11 million bucks this year!!!
Competing in 2015 is greatly based on having enough starter innings by plan. They need 7-8 possible starters—I guess you throw Torres in there somewhere, as needed.
Starting Pitching Depth is a myth!
At some point you have to trust your system.
Harvey, JDG, Wheeler, Niese, Colon, Montero, Gee Syndergaard, Mazzoni, Peavey, Verrett and Gorski have all exceeded the club’s stated goal of 150 IP in the upper minors.
Bowman, Pill and Matz will all pass that during the year.
That’s 15 SP to choose from. Even if we trade two and lose another in Rule 5, that’s 12 SP without even counting anyone we might bring in on an NRI. Last year the Mets used nine SP and that includes the one spot start from Torres. You can argue that we were healthy last year and that’s true. But anytime you’re going past 6-7 pitchers deep, you’re not going to be running Clayton Kershaw out there.
If a deal presents itself which helps the team and costs the Mets two SP, they need to pull the trigger. They need to be more worried about putting the best team they can on the field for games 1-162 then worrying about the dozen or so starts that pitchers nine and above might make for them.
Good points, but I assume this to be a year that the Mets should be able to plan to compete…beyond hoping I believe they should plan on competing.
I believe they have a better shot with Flores/Tejada at short with recovery from Wright and Grandy plus Cuddy……Versus stripping out the proven Major League innings—-and I’d definitely cringe at trading 360-400 innings at this point.
If needed, the SS may be addressable along the way…heck, you can even “get lucky” with position players. It’s tough and extraordinarily expensive to find a Pennant Race Starter during the season.
I’d trade one “whopper” for a big player…or a single pitcher (Niese, Gee, Colon) for a useable guy. Trading big hunks of innings is a desperation move, and a very high risk. It leaves a thinner slice for success versus waiting and hoping at SS.
Tea Leaves say that they will wait for a Free Agent to “drop”…or a “convenient” deal.
It is definitely a risk, but for a player the right deal it might be worth it.
Also, if the Mets do not trade two of them then what do they do with all the pitchers. Syndergaard is not going to stay in Vegas for the entire season and neither will Montero. Both of them could go to the bullpen, Montero more likely than Syndergaard. Even if they both start in Vegas that leaves one extra man in the rotation and with both of them ready, they can afford to trade at least one of them away and still do well. Like Brian said the Mets have a lot of pitching at the upper levels that could come up and spot start if Harvey is not 100% or something goes wrong.
In an emergency situation Mejia could make a start. He does prefer to be the closer, but he could be stretched to a starter if need be.
Excellent article Tyler, and nice comments all. Profar didn’t play at all in 2014, and has had shoulder trouble three times already, so I wouldn’t waste a lot on him. Andrus has been erratic at the plate the past three years, and had a suspect year with the glove in 2014, so there is some worry there as well as with the loads of money he will be making. I don’t think the Mets and Rangers match up as well as everyone thinks. But SS options are few and far between, so I see the appeal.
They may not match up at shortstop, but they Rangers do need pitching so they could work a deal with other players or involve a third team. They have Michael Choice who is rated one of their top prospects right now, but with Rios no longer on the team they may want to give him a shot in right field. The Mets could trade for just mid-level prospects or if Texas would be willing to part with one of their lefty relievers like Alex Claudio. It would make sense for Alderson to at least gauge what they would want for any of the three.