With the Hot Stove season well on its way, the Mets front office prepares for a trip to San Diego for the 2014 Winter Meetings. Today, Arizona, Detroit, and the Yankees agreed on a three way deal involving Shane Greene, Robbie Ray, and Didi Gregorius, the latter going to the Bronx to man a position helmed by Derek Jeter for the past 19 years. Gregorius is one of numerous shortstops to be rumored in trades involving the Mets the past year or so, but now you can officially cross him off the list.
How serious the Mets are in acquiring a shortstop this offseason is yet to be determined or made known; GM Sandy Alderson has hinted in his usual coy fashion at his willingness to upgrade the team’s roster, but to what degree is a mystery. Currently, it looks as though Wilmer Flores can call himself the starting shortstop, to the dismay of many within the Mets fan base. A few weeks ago, Alderson was quoted “I know there are fans out there that don’t want to hear it, but if we had to go into the season with Flores as our shortstop, I’m certainly not in a panic mode at that point.” A fair statement considering Flores’ potential and what he’s already shown in extending playing time at shortstop last season. An article written by myself in October made the case for Flores as the starting shortstop, and the logistics of those arguments still are in place today. The Winter Meetings, however, are a great platform to enter in-person discussions with prospective GMs to entertain ideas about improving the roster. There’s always room for improvement, and you can bet Sandy Alderson will do some “recon” of the trade market.
The Mets, A’s, Dodgers and Yankees have all been rumored to be the primary suitors for a starting shortstop this offseason, and Gregorius’ acquisition today confirmed a portion of that. If the Mets are serious about acquiring a shortstop, they have the supply to land one if they were so inclined. The free agents available (Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Jed Lowrie) are not in high demand right now, so the Mets, A’s, and Dodgers should have some time to kick the tires on a few options. The Mets’ depth of quality pitching may give them the leverage for a counter offer, if the Dodgers or A’s go hard early in the process. The reality is: The Mets don’t need to be aggressive until they absolutely have to be, the supply and demand are in their favor, assuming starting pitching is what a given team Is looking for. So how will this all play out for the Mets?
If the Mets want to sign one of the free agents, (which seems unlikely), they’ll probably wait until the market goes down. A bidding war doesn’t seem imminent, and if recent trends continue, the Dodgers would have no issue overpaying if pressed. If a trade is going to happen, Alderson can proceed with due diligence and use Flores’ as leverage until the other team blinks. In his mind, he has a starting shortstop, a team lacking starting pitchers, may not be able to use that “bluff”, if it even is one.
The Chicago Sox have been reported to be interested in acquiring a starting pitcher, and after signing Adam LaRoche to a 2 year/$25 million dollar deal, it’s safe to say they’re eager to contend in 2015. All-Star shortstop Alexei Ramirez is signed for another year with a team option for 2016, if the Mets were to offer two Major League ready starting pitchers, could a trade be sealed? Mets fans will just have to wait.
Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, James Shields, and Ervin Santana are still being wooed, and many teams are dangling their own aces to see who is biting. There is no pressure on the Mets to make a trade, ironically, that could be exactly what gets one done.
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I can’t remember a 3-team trade ever where 2 teams gave up on former trade headline pieces so quickly.
Just 1 year ago, the Tigers traded Doug Fister to the Nats for Ian Krol, Steve Lombardozzi, and the headline piece Robbie Ray.
1 year later, they have Shane Greene, a young but no-name prospect who had a nice season last year and a LOOGY Krol.
2 years ago, the Dbacks were invovled in a 3 team trade where the main pieces were them giving up Bauer and getting Gregorius.
2 years later, they have Ray and a lottery pick in Domingo Leyba.
Not that Bauer has become an elite SP, but he’s been as high as a top-25 prospect while Ray has at best been a borderline top100 guy
Tigers were easily the dumbest of the bunch, and the Yankees made out like a bandit.
How did the Yankees make out? In order to get a slight upgrade from Ruben Tejada, they had to give up a SP who had a 50% GB rate and one who struck out over a batter per inning last year. Sure, he wasn’t heralded but that’s because he was walking everyone in the minors in 2011 and 2012. But his walk rate was great in 2013 and it was solid at 3.32 in the majors last year. Plus, he had a pretty big H/R split. Getting out of Yankee Stadium could be a great thing for him.
I never considered Didi a player worth trading for. Owings would be an upgrade but with Didi gone Arizona won’t trade him. I think the Yankees could have done better.
Shane Greene is a guy even the most ardent Yankee fans couldn’t care less about. A guy with a horrible minor league track record and nothing more than a 6th/7th starter/long man. Logan Verett probably has a brighter future.
And they were able to flip him for a guy who can play SS really well. Those guys have value. Look at what Barmes just signed for, and he’s about 10 years older than Didi.
But i guess i shouldn’t give the Yankees that much credit so much as the utter stupidity of the Tigers. If you split up the 3way transcation it is
1. Shane Greene for Robbie Ray and Domingo Leyba (the steal)
2. Robbie Ray and Domingo Leyba for Didi (fair)
I couldn’t care less what Yankees fans think about Greene. With the Yankees pitching staff filled with injury question marks, trading Greene means they’ll have to get two pitchers. That’s okay – they’ve got money and they’ll manage just fine.
In 2013, Greene had a very strong minor league campaign, with a 3.38 ERA and a 4.57 K/BB mark. Last year he more than held his own in the majors. I’m going to count those things more than the fact that he struggled in A-ball 3+ years ago.
Clint Barmes has been in the majors 12 years and been above average one time. The fact that major league teams continue to employ him and spend money over the minimum to do so proves only their inability to properly judge talent. The last three years Barmes has a .585 OPS over 300 games and has been paid $12.5 million. I bet there’s at least 30 shortstops in the minors who could match that offensive output in the majors and more than a handful of them could give you what Barmes does defensively, too. And they’d all play for minimum wage.
Didi will look like a defensive wizard compared to what the Yankees are used to with Jeter. But the jury’s still out on how he’ll be defensively. He had a (-3.1) UZR last year at SS and for his 1,521.1 lifetime innings at short in the majors, he has a 0 DRS and a (-3.6) UZR.
There’s a possibility that overall he’s not any better than Ruben Tejada. Tejada’s got a higher lifetime UZR/150 than Didi, although Gregorius has a 13-point edge in lifetime wOBA.
Greene had a couple of rough outings last year that came the third time he faced Boston and Baltimore. Maybe the extra look showed all his flaws. But I’d wager on getting out of Yankee Stadium will more than make up for teams getting a “book” on him. Last year Greene had a 2.70 ERA with a 4.4 K/BB ratio in seven road games. His OPS against was 121 points lower on the road than in Yankee Stadium
We tend to over rate our players and their value. I am sorry Sean but the Mets do not need to act aggressively at any time this off season. The Yankees Not signing Drew speaks volumes considering their “friendly” relationship with Boras. Are the White Soxs going to jump up and down with joy for getting Niese with his ailing shoulder? Colon who is barely an adequate number three starter at the age of 41 making 11 million or Gee a 4th or 5th starter for any team? Chicago is not going to trade their All-Star SS for 2 maybes.
+1
While the Yanks may have done better, Didi is cheap and if he does not pan out then there is always next year. I think the Yankees believe (hope) that Tex and Beltran will rebound from their dismal showings from this past season and A-Rod will be his former self. It appears Hank is preferring to spend his money on pitching maybe even trying to minimize the team luxury tax. What a thought?
Great article, and fantastic comments.