Ever since Jose Reyes left after the 2011 season, it has been a scramble for the Mets to find a successor for him at shortstop, but also at the top of the order. The Mets do not have a prototypical leadoff hitter slated for their lineup in 2015. Most teams would love to have a leadoff hitter that gets on base a lot and has a decent amount of speed, but recently that latter has not been as much of a qualification. In 2014, the Mets tried eight different players at leadoff. Out of those eight only half started more than four games at leadoff. Leading the pack was Eric Young Jr. with 53, but he is no longer with the Mets after they decided not to tender his contract. Following him was Curtis Granderson with 52, Juan Lagares with 37, and Matt den Dekker with 12. With Alderson saying that Wilmer Flores is likely to be the starting shortstop they will have a lineup consisting of Granderson, Lagares, Flores, David Wright, Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, Travis d’Arnaud, and Michael Cuddyer who is the best option for the Mets at leadoff?
Juan Lagares has fared decently well in his brief time in the leadoff spot. In 2014, he hit .306/.324/.417 leading off games, which is better than Jacoby Ellsbury, who hit .188/.204/.333 before being moved to the three hole. His numbers were also better than Coco Crisp at .225/.301/.353 and Reyes at .256/.303/.368, both of whom are viewed as great leadoff hitters. Leadoff hitters should not be judged solely on how well they do leading off the game, but it is great for a team to be able to jump out of the gate quick and take the lead early. Both Crisp and Reyes are known for having speed, and Lagares has flashed signs of his ability to swipe a few bases. Between August 29th and September 16th, Terry Collins gave Lagares the green light and he went. He played in 18 games in that span and stole nine bases with only being caught once in that time frame by Bryan Pena, who had a 43% caught stealing percentage in last year. With Lagares guaranteed a spot in the lineup because of his glove if he can draw a few more walks and take advantage of his speed on the bases then he could be cemented in as the Mets leadoff hitter for the season and maybe even beyond that.
Curtis Granderson is also a potential option for the Mets to use in the leadoff spot. During his time in Detroit, Granderson ledoff and produced very well for them out of that spot. Although the Granderson that played for the Tigers is not the same Granderson that is on the Mets now, he still could hit there if needed and produce for the Mets. He has a great relationship with the newly acquired hitting coach, Kevin Long, and Long said that he was going to spend time during the off-season with Granderson to tweak his swing and get it back to where it was when he was with the Yankees. That combined with the moving in the fences in right-center should yield more home runs for him. Granderson has no problem getting on base as he was eleventh in the MLB in walks, yet he was eightieth in on-base percentage. The combination of his ability to get on base and power will be something that is going to benefit the Mets lineup greatly this coming year, but the question is does he work best batting leadoff and scoring a lot of runs or lower in the order driving in lots of runs?
Outside of those two none of the other players do not fit in the leadoff role. Duda, Wright, and Cuddyer have always been and will continue to be middle of the order bats that are going to drive in runs. Flores and d’Arnaud are still question marks of whether they will have success in major with their bats and do not need the added pressure of the leadoff spot nor do they profile at leadoff. And Murphy has been tried in the leadoff spot, but the results were nothing outstanding, and he profiles more as a two-hitter unless the Mets decide to put Granderson in the two-hole to drive in the leadoff hitter and be able to score runs. It could work well for the Mets having a lineup of:
Lagares – CF
Granderson – LF
Wright – 3B
Duda – 1B
Cuddyer – RF
Murphy – 2B
d’Arnaud – C
Flores – SS
Lagares should lead off vs lefties for sure. If he has trouble vs righties, put Murphy at the top and slot Lagares in the 2 hole. Grandy’s lifetime stats are best out of the 5 or 6 hole. The lineup should be easy:
Lagares
Murphy
Wright
Duda
Cuddyer
Grandy
TDA
Flores
not rocket science
Granderson’s lifetime stats are actually based when he is out of the two spot.
Second: .252/.350/.518
Fifth: .264/.333/.464
Sixth: .259/.336/.463
Based on just those stats, I would take his two hole stats over his fifth or sixth. He hit for average better in fifth and sixth, but got on base at higher clip and hit for significant more power out of the two hole.
If the Mets had more power, I’d be in favor of starting Granderson as the leadoff hitter, but considering the lineup, I like Lagares leading off. Those stats that you provided were a testimony that Lagares can handle hitting leadoff. I like your lineup, but I prefer Murphy being at the top of lineup.
James, Granderson batted .180 in the top two spots last year with 1/3 of his at-bats being there. He hit .268 elsewhere. Unfortunately, he is more comfortable in a less demanding position.
I realize this will not be very popular, but I have a thought. The way TDA was hitting, he has no business being at the bottom of the order but he is ticketed for there. Further, while Lagares has improved his hitting, he still needs some discipline. His .324 OBP is pathetic. So, to put the best hitters in the best hitting positions:
Murphy
TDA
Wright
Duda
Cuddyer
Granderson
Lagares
Flores
Pitcher
This lineup can be deadly, or, Wright can flop, Duda regresses, Cuddyer and Granderson both bomb and the team is offensively up a creek without a paddle.
I like this lineup the best so far, except i’m probably the only one that wants to see Tejada as the starter over Flores.
LOL, I think you are. But, you have Collins on your side and that all you need.
So Lagares’ .324 OBP is pathetic, but Murphy’s .332 OBP is the “best hitter in the best spot”? I must disagree.
I did not check Murphy and apologize for the result. I would hope he can improve on that. But, overall I think Murphy is the better hitter and in that lineup, that’s his spot.
While both Lagares and Murphy both have pretty low walk rates, Murphy is a proven .290 hitter while Lagares was pretty lucky to get up to.280 last year.
If Lagares’s average falls to .250-.260, he’s going to have trouble sniffing .300 OBP.
Well, if the rumor mill is correct, Jurickson Profar would be a nice fit.
Joe,
I would seriously have a eruption of joy. Hate to lose Syndergaard though. How about Wheeler? But, Profar has been my wish since the off season started. Y’all may have noticed.
If the Mets do decide to trade for Profar, I would hope that they would wait until spring training if they can to show that he is still physically able to play at a high level after missing all of last season. Giving up Syndergaard and having Profar not be able to return would end up on a few worst trade lists.
Collins has already indicated that Lagares should be the leadoff hitter and he likes a balanced line up. Very old school. Against LHP Lagares should lead off with his .387 OBP but with his .303 OBP vs RHP he would serve the lineup better as the seventh batter where his speed could still be utilized. Vs RHP I believe Murphy should lead off and Granderson second where Granderson’s power would drive in Murphy.
If the Mets don’t upgrade at SS then Flores will need to hit in order to justify why he is playing over a better defensive SS that has a higher OBP . It will also be interesting to see who is Lagares CF backup because MDD (if he beats out Kirk) profiles as a strong OBP guy with his new approach and may look good at the top of the order when Lagares rests.