In an age in baseball where there is a glut of pitching, in an offseason where there is plenty of front-line talent available, and with all the assets the New York Mets have the ability to move, it seems Dillon Gee is the one they are shopping around the most aggressively.
Gee is a fine back-end of the rotation starter, but in the end he is just that – a back-end starter. Number four and five starters are normally a dime-a-dozen, especially when pitching is so dominant. So, why are the Mets so aggressively trying to move Gee of all people, and what can they expect to get as a return?
Luckily the first part of that question is very easy to answer. Gee, who has been serviceable but unremarkable since his debut in 2010, is getting squeezed as part of a numbers game. With Matt Harvey set to return to a rotation that already features Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon, with Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz waiting in the wings, there just isn’t room for Gee.
While Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia have been able to make smooth transitions to the bullpen (Rafael Montero is likely to join them at some point), Gee is not the type of pitcher that one envisions thriving in the bullpen.
He’s not a particularly hard thrower, with his sinker averaging right around 90 miles per hour throughout his career, and he lacks a good enough secondary offering to make up for that shortcoming (think Trevor Hoffman not throwing hard but having a devastating change up).
With all of that taken into consideration, the logical move for the Mets is to try to trade Gee to a team looking for an inexpensive and reliable back-of-the-rotation starter. For reference, Gee is slated to make $3.625 million in 2015, while Brandon Morrow signed an incentive-laden deal that could be worth up to $7.5 million with the Padres on Tuesday.
Now let’s turn our heads to the second part of that question, which is a little harder to answer. What can the Mets expect in return for Gee?
Reports surfaced around the Winter Meetings last week in San Diego that the Minnesota Twins had offered the Mets shortstop Eduardo Escobar in exchange for Gee, and that the Mets turned them down. The Mets did not view Escobar, who hit .275/.315/.405 in 465 PA as enough of an upgrade over Wilmer Flores (who hit .251/.286/.386 in 274 PA).
The Colorado Rockies, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, and Kansas City Royals were all said to be in conversations with the Mets front office about Gee as well. Despite the need to get rid of Gee and find a shortstop, the team passed on one in Escobar presumably because they thought they could get a better haul from someone else.
To speculate about what kind of a haul that might be, let’s have a look at what another back-end starter, Marco Estrada fetched when traded earlier this offseason.
Estrada was traded from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Toronto Blue Jays for Adam Lind on November 1st, and was the first domino to fall in what has been an eventful hot stove season.
As far as a statistical comparison between Gee and Estrada goes, Gee comes out on top in ERA and RA/9, while Estrada has struck out more, and walked slightly less. All told, they’re pretty similar in terms of production, and make a similar salary, so this is as close to setting the “market rate” for Gee as you can find this year.
In return for the 31-year-old Estrada, the Brewers added the 31-year-old Lind, who when he has been healthy in his career is a potent slugger, but health has been difficult to come by. Here are Lind’s career wRC+ numbers since his breakout 2009 season: 140, 89, 95, 95, 131, 141. That’s beyond solid, but of course Lind’s injury history and risk going forward limits his value some, but there is tremendous upside to the deal for the Brewers.
If Adam Lind is the market value for Marco Estrada, then the Mets were right to turn down Escobar for Gee, because they can get more than that.
They are said to like Rex Brothers of the Rockies, but there would have to be more involved in that trade to make it palatable for the Mets. Brothers is a reliever with a career 3.65 FIP and a 2.07 K:BB ratio in 232.0 innings. He’s not bad, but the return of only Brothers would be too low for Gee. They’d have to get something else; preferably that fits a team need.
There was other talk about Jurickson Profar, the one-time top prospect in all of baseball being a piece the Mets were interested in, but the front office quashed rumors of their interest in him. Then again being someone who has worked in media relations departments in front offices, I don’t believe a single word I hear from a front office. Ever.
Profar is actually an interesting case with his stock severely diminished coming off of a major shoulder injury that caused him to miss the entire 2014 season. His promise obviously still remains and he could solidify the shortstop situation for years to come.
One has to assume that the Padres are likely out on Gee after signing Morrow and emerging as the front-runners for Josh Johnson this week, but who saw them acquiring Wil Myers and Justin Upton either?
Had the Mets not signed Michael Cuddyer earlier this offseason, the Padres might actually have matched up as good trade partner, owing to their surplus of outfielders. Now that Seth Smith and Will Venable have become expendable, they might have been good fits, but unless Curtis Granderson gets traded as well, it’s hard to envision the Mets taking on an outfielder on a major league contract for the rest of the offseason.
The Royals just signed Kris Medlen and Edinson Volquez this week, but still might be in on Gee as well. I couldn’t really tell you who might head to the Mets from Kansas City in such a deal, but there are certainly some intriguing options.
With enough negotiating and creativity from Sandy Alderson, the Mets might actually be able to get a nice return for Gee. Whether it is Profar at one end of the spectrum or Brothers and another marginal player as a sweetener on the other, Gee seems to have some decent trade value, and the Mets need to capitalize on that.
The move needs to be made with some kind of haste, though, because as free agents continue to sign and trades continue to be made, the market for Gee shrinks, and with it, the leverage the Mets have.
Joe Vasile is a broadcaster residing in Paramus, NJ. He is the voice of Wilkes University football and basketball for ESPN Radio in Williamsport, PA
The Padres as a trade partner interest me with their recent signing I have no Idea if their still in on Gee but with Middlebrook, Barmess, Amarista, Gyorko and 4 guys who may play some 1b I wonder if Solarte might be available. He played 3b, 2b, and SS for the yanks before being traded as part of a package for Headly. Could Gee for Solarte make sense. As I’ve said I have no clue on San diego’s side but for the mets He could Compete with Floras and if he dose not start he could be an Infield super sub.
Solarte played a grand total of 23 innings at SS last year and in 31 games during his 9 year minor league career.
The last thing the Mets need is yet another player without a position. He sucks everywhere on the field, but 3b is his best position, where he’s almost average.
You know, I thought about that…a Gee for Solarte swap. But what gives me reservations about that move is that Solarte is probably best utilized as a bench player. After his fast start in pinstripes last year, Solarte finished hitting .260/.336/.369, which is better than Mets shortstops did last year, but I don’t know if that’s enough of an upgrade over Wilmer Flores to make the front office pull the trigger. I think Eduardo Escobar is a much more intriguing option with a higher ceiling, and the FO didn’t want him. Solarte as a super sub though, is a pretty good option, unfortunately they have to fill the hole at starting shortstop before thinking about super subs. At least in a perfect world.
ok but what if the option dose not exist for an upgrade over Floras. You get a versatile young player who can take Tejada’s spot on the bench with some pop, Plus as a Switch hitter if he doesn’t beat out Floras he helps balance a bench which as fare as I can see only has Kurk from the left side. I mean I’m all for a better Gee trade if its out there but unless Texas reverses course and offers Profor and his medicals check out I’m not sure you find it. As for Solarte’s differences I’m sure there real thats what makes him available in a deal for a 4th/5th starter
To be honest, I don’t see Solarte as that big of an upgrade over Tejada. Solarte has more pop, but less OBP, is not as good with the glove, is two years older, and isn’t on the team already. All that he really has going for him is the marginal increase in power and he’s a switch hitter. If I’m giving up Gee, it’s for someone who will play a significant role, not someone who is on the same level as Tejada.
I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree I’m not sure your going to get much more for Gee (as I said if Profar is available I’d do that I just doubt he is especially in a deal for Gee) Solarte to me is much more versatile which I really value and Tejada is poisoned in NY I think it is time for him to go he is the ultimate change of scenery kid. If I’d been GM I would have non tendered him.
I’m not even sure why we are even comparing Tejada to Solarte. One can’t play SS. If you want to compare Solarte to someone, it should be to Flores.
Guys who can play SS, and really play SS and not just masquerade there, are fewer than you think. That’s why a 35 yr Clint Barmes just got 1.5 million guaranteed despite sucking since 2012 and playing just 48 games last year. Non-tendering Tejada when the Mets have only Flores on the 40 man roster would have been one of the stupidest decisions of Sandy’s tenure.
Sandy did not non tender hi so really I would have guess that makes me the stupid one. At any rate I would have added another player to replace Tejada Like I said on Solarte I think he’d be a good pick up I do think he could play SS and I think he could push Flores in ST and add flexibility to your bench. You don’t agree fine.
As for SD according to MLB network Alexi Amarista was slated to be their SS with Barmes viewed as veteran back up for a young infield. as for his 1.5 salary thats just 500,000 more than we are paying Mayberry to be a bench OF. 1-2 mil a year seems to be the going rate for veteran Bench players with the game awash in cash.
I can play SS too.
The guy has played less than 30 games at SS in his entire career, and probably only a tiny fraction were full games. He’s played more OF than SS for gods sake.
He’s not a SS, never was, never will be.
The Mets already plenty of super utility type players (Campbell, Murphy, Flores) so i don’t really see why you would want to give up something to get yet another super sub.
Adam Lind was rumored to be released. Gee is better than Estrada, but not much. Was it true that Texas offered Sardinas for him? That would be acceptable because this team has absolutely no flexibility to improve in its lineup other than SS. Escobar was also a nice offer.
JC, if we had money, I’d give them Gee for Quentin, and release Maybery owing him 16% of his $1.45MM. Let the boys compete in spring training and let Collins alternate them. In July, one may have some real value.
I’m not interested in Quentin because he has been injured and I’m not sure about his splits against Lefties. The money you point to is the reason I doubt the mets would be intrested but we will see what happens
I don’t remember hearing of Texas offering Sardinas for Gee, but maybe I just missed that news. I’d rather get someone back with MLB experience though, like a Profar.
Stories around the time of the winter meetings suggested Texas was open to trading a middle IF for SP. The mets were said to want Profar Texas was believed to have countered with Sardinas but the mets according to reports viewed him more as a 2nd basemen and were less interested. At least thats what I recall being the scuttlebut. of course I could be misremembering.
Sardinas is a nice fielder, with some speed and. It too much power that hits in the .270s in the minors.
I’ll take your word for it I don’t really know much about him. I was just repeating what I’d read and /or heard at the time
Honestly, I don’t think Thor would get you Profar, let alone Dillon Gee. He was an absolute stud and you can bet Texas isn’t letting him go for a pitcher who barely makes the cut as a fifth starter. Even with his injury, why would Texas sell so low? What’s the incentive, especially when pitchers like Gee are a “dime a dozen”.
Honestly, I think Gee has pretty much no value. He has only pitched 200 innings once and is frequently on the dl. Although he has had a few nice stretches, he is simply not very good, but still gets paid in the area of 5 million. I would guess most teams have a few Gees hanging around their system or at least someone young with upside.
I think the best return is a quality Loogy or a 7-8 inning relief pitcher.
I don’t really think profar is an option either though I do think you are under selling Gee. I think he is a solid 4th starter candidate. yes he is projected to make around 5 million this year but he is 28 with another year after this coming one of team control. and with vets signing one year deals around 10 mil. He has some value especially if you don’t want to expose younger arms in your system to early to protect their arbitration eligabilety. Texas has intrest in him as a home town boy litteraly lives near their stadium. That said I agree he is not enough for profar.
That is why I was proposing Solarte for Gee. Before the Mayberry signing I was pushing to get a Righty OF with some pop for a platune my dream was Van Slyke but that need has been filed so now I look to Solarte. In truth we could all be wrong
Name,
I would have replied to your post above but there was no reply button so why am I interested in him?
Because I recognize that the mets in Niece Calon and Gee have 3 guys for 2 spots and I don’t view any of them as good fits in the bull pen. So the Mets are going to move one of the 3. Reports at the winter meeting suggested Gee was drawing the most interest and best returns. Recognizing one of them is gone by ST I’m looking for the best realistic deal for a 4th/5th starter making 5 million.
I don’t think you’re getting Profar who I’d prefer so I’m looking around at what’s out there and Solarte is the best I think you can get. Especially since the mets reportedly turned down a deal from the Twins for a SS they viewed as defensively motivated. I am looking for pieces that meet a need I think we have, that of versatility off the bench and someone to push Flores fully believing he’ll win the Job and yes I believe he is good enough at Short to back up Flores. You obviously disagree ok fine but when I said we’ll have to agree to disagree you kept coming back I’m not asking you to agree with me I don’t even care if you think I’m stupid or nuts I’m just explaining my reasoning. Its just my opinion but after all we are all entitled to them.
I give up. No point in talking sense into a guy who isn’t rational. Go ahead and dream in your fantasy world.
I found the comparison of the Estrada -Lind trade interesting in regard to Gee’s worth on November 1st. Nice research and article Joe.
Alderson by not accepting the proposed Escobar trade at the winter meetings indicates to me that he feels he can get a better shortstop this winter. He will need to fill in Niese’s spot in the rotation with Gee if he can pry Miller (or Taylor) away from Seatle. Tulo will probably require two pitchers in the deal.
If those deals aren’t made in January, then hopefully he can go back to the deal with the Twins. The Mets are financially restricted and there is very little reason to be carrying a $5.1 M (MLBTR arb est) long relief bullpen pitcher. The Twin deal isn’t ideal but it removes $ 4.5M from the payroll and adds an experienced 25 yoa shortstop that had a better than average year in 2014.