Grant Bisbee of SB Nation took a look earlier this week at three of the forgotten names in the free agent market: Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew and Colby Rasmus.
While Rasmus, a lefty-hitting outfielder with good pop and not much else, doesn’t really serve as a fit on the 2015 Mets, Cabrera and Drew, both shortstops, seemingly do.
So in the seemingly likely event that the Mets don’t end up trading for superstar Troy Tulowitzki, what, other than an actual ability to play shortstop can Cabrera and Drew bring to the table for the Mets that make them intriguing options?
Asdrubal Cabrera
Much like fellow free-agent shortstop Everth Cabrera, Asdrubal Cabrera has the big cloud of Biogenesis hanging over his head. After hitting .273/.332/.460 with 25 home runs in 2011 as a 25-year-old, Cabrera’s production with the stick has steadily declined over the past three seasons.
Last year, he hit .241/.307/.387 in 616 plate appearances with the Cleveland Indians and Washington Nationals. The news may not be all bad on Cabrera, though, as a peek at some of his underlying numbers reveal reason for optimism. His walk and strikeout rates have varied some, but not in a way that is concerning, while his BABIP has taken a 30-point dip, corresponding with the dip in his batting average.
The dip in Cabrera’s BABIP begins after the 2012 season, when the Indians hired Ty Van Burkleo as their hitting coach. Under Van Burkleo, Cabrera began hitting significantly more flyballs. While there are no sources that specifically state that this is part of Van Burkleo’s mantra, the Indians have hit more flyballs and less groundballs under him than in the years prior to his arrival. In this case, however, because of roster turnover, the correlation does not necessarily mean Van Burkleo is responsible.
If that is the case those adjustments have taken Cabrera from a very good shortstop, to a below average one. At a price that is likely to fit the Mets’ budget, Cabrera could fit in very nicely, and be even better if Kevin Long can get him back to the hitter he was from 2009-2012.
If the still 29-year-old Cabrera can in fact regain that form, he represents a significant upgrade over Wilmer Flores.
Stephen Drew
Drew is a bit of a more of an enigma. He has played an elite defensive shortstop in his career, and for the most part when healthy, has shown All-Star potential overall. The health part is the big question here.
Since 2011, Drew has played in 374 games, while the oft-injured Tulowitzki has played in 407. Some of that figure is skewed by the 2014 campaign, where Drew remained a free agent until May 21st because of the draft-pick compensation tied to him through the qualifying offer system.
Drew made his season debut on June 2nd, and was spectacularly dreadful. He hit just .162/.237/.299 between the Red Sox and Yankees. Still though, he is only one year removed from a splendid 2013 season with the World Series Champion Red Sox, where he hit .253/.333/.443 with 3.4 fWAR because of his defense (that is pretty much Lucas Duda’s career hitting line with a few less walks).
While it might be tempting to completely write off Drew’s 2014 as lost because of his free agency debacle, his numbers didn’t really improve as the season continued, as one might expect with a player who missed spring training and a good portion of the first half of the season.
Still, like Cabrera, he’s a good talent who has the potential to be a significant upgrade over Flores. The biggest questions are his health, which at 32 years of age on Opening Day won’t be getting any better, and how he can rebound after a dreadful 2014 season.
Because Drew’s problems seem less “fixable” than Cabrera’s, Cabrera is likely the better option of the two, but of course that comes at a higher price.
I think it’s pretty safe to say that Drew is a better defensive SS than Cabrera.
I’d rather wager on a return of Drew’s BABIP than a return of Cabrera’s batted ball profile from three years ago. And how does Cabrera end up hitting more fly balls and seeing a decrease in his ISO?
I would not pay anything above minimum for Cabrera. I’d just as soon play Flores at SS. I think they are very likely to produce the same overall numbers if given equal playing time.
My take is that Drew is worth paying additional money to, but I wouldn’t go crazy there. I would have rather given a 2/$21 deal to Drew than Cuddyer. But I wouldn’t go extra in either years or money.
I think Drew or rather his agent would definitely stay away from Queens unless Drew was in desperate mode. If anything Drew can be given as you say a 1 year contract but with incentives for games played, plate appearances etc…It gives him an opportunity and incentive to raise his value again next free agency. Cabrera minus the steroids is like Superman playing with Kryptonite. Both bad ideas.
Unless you can get one of those guys to commit to a minor league contract with a ST invite or a ML minimum contract we aren’t seeing any of them in Flushing in blue and orange. After watching how this team has operated the last 4+ years you have to realize that two of Gee, Niese, Colon or Murphy have to go by opening day just to get the payroll down to or slightly under their target. Why do you think it is so hard for Alderson to try to extract value for any of these guys? It isn’t that they aren’t any good or have no value, it is that the opposing GM’s know that no matter how Alderson postures, no matter what he declares publicly in the end he has to deal some of these guys and his price will come down the closer it gets to ST. By jumping quickly at Cuddyer and putting himself over his payroll estimate he has backed himself into a corner and the cat is out of the bag, the other GM’s know he has to deal sooner or later and I am sure more than one or two are sick and tired of his smartest guy in the room act also and are chomping at the bit to stick it to him in any way possible.
Very perceptive!
Rob, in Alderson’s defense, he isn’t pounding his chest openly about his intellect, that is done by the writers.
However, this always trying to “win a deal” is no doubt on the other GMs’ mind and they will not let the Mets make them look like fools to their fan base.
I agree loosely with what you are saying, what I disagree with is that Alderson doesn’t do anything to propagate that persona. The way he frames his comments, the way he takes swipes at other GM’s (especially the jabs he took at Minaya, nothing more classless than kicking someone when they are down) and his body language don’t do anything to dissuade the impression he believes he is the smartest man in the room.
I’d sign Drew, but only on a one year deal to replace Tejada, especially since Murphy is most likely going to be traded by the deadline. Drew protects the Mets in case Flores doesn’t play well, injury issues or if Reynolds isn’t ready to be promoted if needed. Drew is also a good defending SS and could allow a Murphy move in this offseason if the right trade came along.
The big “knock” on Flores is allegedly his defense at shortstop…Yet, when stating that “If the still 29-year-old Cabrera can in fact regain that form, he represents a significant upgrade over Wilmer Flores.”; you totally ignore Cabrera’s defense…Have you seen Cabrera play shortstop, or looked at his defensive numbers before making this judgement? Asdrubal Cabrera is a bad defensive shortstop by the numbers and by watching him on mlb.tv…While Wilmer at short probably isn’t a long term answer, he looked better than Cabrera does; and he’s gaining some MLB middle infield exposure until Daniel Murphy vacates by the end of 2015…
I like the idea of signing Stephen Drew. The only thing I wonder about, is how much he will help this team. I think Drew could be a defensive replacement for Flores, while starting a couple of games against right-handed pitchers. If the price is right, I say why not sign Drew. However, I think the one player that is going to push the Mets forward is Tulowitzki, but it seems that nothing is happening on that front as of now.
A “Return to Baseball Card” would be a spectacular bet on Drew—and it preserves prospects. Anything closed to his normal output would make the Mets a Playoff Favorite.
As for Cabrera…. his last 1200 ab’s say he’s what he is….a 680-700 OPS batter. He seems to be a guy on a physical down trend. The batting stats and his general appearance and performance say so. He doesn’t seem to be a SS defensively anymore. Further—where do you fit this guy in your lineup? He profiles as a really lousy middle lineup hitter—and he surely isn’t a table setter or fire starter….Pass!!!!!!!
The Mets should sign Drew to a one year contract. He would improve the up the middle defense and has the potential for an above average offensive season. I would pass on Cabrera who would be more expensive, a longer commitment and not a defensive upgrade.
The Mets stories indicate that they currently want to shed around $5m from payroll. Drew would be adding $9m (?) to payroll. The Mets would have to trade non-minimum salaried pitcher and Murphy in order to get the budget in line. Alderson strength is trading veterans for prospects. It also would open a spot for Flores. It is a move I would make.
If the Mets are serious about a playoff run they would sign Drew, keep Murphy and use Flores as the back up infielder. Unfortunately the Mets are underfunded and I don’t believe this to be an option.
I don’t want either of these guys. Pass, pass, then pass some more.
I would love for someone to corner Scott Boras and get him to expand on his continuous pleas to get Drew a multi-year contract of $10 million per year. He’s injury prone, inconsistent, and coming off an awful year. I don’t get it