Had the Mets not signed Michael Cuddyer or any other player that would cost them a draft pick in the draft in June, then they would have the 15th pick. From 2000 to 2009 every player that has been drafted 15th overall has made it to the major leagues. Some have performed better than others, Chase Utley, Stephen Drew, Devin Mesoraco, and former Mets number one pick Scott Kazmir. There are other players drafted 15th that had brief stints in the majors and flamed out after a few seasons. The Mets have had some good luck with their first overall pick and some horrible luck with it as well. In 2001, the Mets drafted Aaron Heilman with the 18th pick in the draft. The Mets also had a supplemental pick in 2001 from not resigning Mike Hampton, which they used to draft future all-star Mets third baseman, David Wright. They also drafted Matt Harvey first round in 2010, who has become a superstar in New York after only 36 starts in the majors. They have also had some bad luck, Lastings Milledge, Eddie Kunz, Bradley Holt, and Reese Havens. It is a gamble that the Mets took and only time will tell if it will actually pay off. Will Cuddyer be worth a first round draft pick over the next two seasons?
It seems that Cuddyer is not only the bat in the outfield the Mets were looking for going into the offseason, but also someone to spell Duda away from the tough lefties. Duda will probably still see sometime against lefties because he cannot just avoid them entirely if the Mets expect him to be the starting first baseman of the future. Cuddyer is also on the wrong side of 35 and will definitely see his fair share of days off with John Mayberry Jr. and Kirk Niewenhuis or Matt den Dekker getting the starts out in right field. Cuddyer will still be a valuable bat off the bench when he does not start as he can come in against a lefty that the other team brings in to face Duda or a righty to face Mayberry. In limited appearances as a pinch hitter Cuddyer has hit .372/.460/.651, which are pretty good, but he has only had 50 pinch hitting plate appearances over his career from being a starter and in the American League most of his career.
If healthy over the next two seasons, Cuddyer should be penciled in for about 115-125 starts each season with some pinch hitting appearances in there as well. The Mets are ready to compete now and it is one of the moves that Sandy Alderson has made that shows the interest in a win-now mode instead of a win-later mode. Cuddyer could end up else where after this season with Brandon Nimmo coming up through the system likely starting in Triple-A this season. Cuddyer’s relatively big contract means he is going to play while he is here, but Nimmo is viewed as a key piece of the Mets future and will get playing time if he proves himself worthy of it possibly this season and if not in 2016. The intangibles that Cuddyer is worth to the Mets cannot be measured as he is going to be a great clubhouse guy for the Mets and will definitely be able to help Wright lead the team and be able to able some of the younger guys. If over the next two seasons Cuddyer acts as a mentor to Nimmo and Juan Lagares similar to Jason Isringhausen mentoring Bobby Parnell in 2011 then it will be well worth it for the Mets. Also, with a bunch of young guns in the rotation and a few young guys in the lineup that extra veteran leadership can go a long way for the overall team in 2015. If Cuddyer comes close to his career numbers and adds to the clubhouse, he definitely is worth the first round pick and deserves his $21 million contract.
Interesting article which should make for interesting discussion.
For me, given his age, it was not worth losing the pick. He may, hopefully so, prove me wrong.
I agree about his clubhouse presence.
Unlike football where you really do need to rely on your teammates to have your back, baseball is more a series of one-on-one challenges…batter vs. pitcher, batter vs. fielder, fielder vs. runner, etc. There are a great many notoriously “bad clubhouse guys” like Ty Cobb, Albert Belle, Dick Allen and others I would surely not throw off my team because they delivered what they were paid to do.
Cuddyer was a sub optimal move. Yes, he’s a quality hitter. Yes, the price paid is fair. However, he’s in the twilight of his career. He has trouble staying healthy. He cost us a draft pick.
Personally, I’d have rolled the dice on Yasmany Tomas even though the commitment was longer because I don’t feel the Mets are just one player away from contention where Cuddyer was what put them over the top. They need Duda to show he can hit lefties and repeat what he did last year. They need Flores to show he’s the hitter he’s been at the minor league level. They need Wright to get healthy and get Citifield out of his head. They need Granderson to return to 30 (if not 40) HR power. They need the continued maturation and development of both Travis d’Arnaud and Juan Lagares. That’s a LOT of ifs. As it is, the slugging nucleus of the team — Wright, Granderson and Cuddyer — are all on the wrong side of 30.
Flores just might be the guy that puts them over the top. 280, 15 homers, 75-80 RBI. Is just what this team needs.
Cuddyer is not worth the lost of a first round draft pick but the Mets are either too impatient of too late as usual. Hopefully he stays healthy.
The Cuddyer signing isn’t about the draft pick, it’s about who would have manned RF instead of Cuddyer. No one would have been satisfied with a platoon of MDD and Mayberry. The Mets weren’t signing anyone to more than a 2 year deal or trading for a corner OF under a long term, expensive contract. That basically leaves Justin Upton, and the Braves weren’t dealing him in division.
Unless they could have gotten Wil Myers from Tampa, who outside of Cuddyer were they going to get?
They aren’t going to block Nimmo or Conforto, so that leaves out most of the OF on the market.
In the end, if they sign Moncado, that’s as good as a 15th overall pick, along with Cuddyer.
Scott, Flores or Moncado? I’m thinking Flores is the way to go.
Moncado is a high end prospect who will take some time to develop and might not stick at short. Having both would be nice.
Alex Rios or Nori Aoki
Or Torii Hunter
I believe Hunter said he wasn’t going to play on the east coast and took a one year deal in Minnesota to finish out his career. If Hunter would even have considered coming to the Mets, it would have taken probably at least 2 years and more money than Cuddyer.
I wouldn’t touch Aoki. Mets needed punch in the lineup and Aoki doesn’t offer that. Rios and Cuddyer are a toss-up to me. Cuddyer is more injury prone, but Rios lack of power last year was startling. I know Rios got a 1 year deal, but he’s getting more than Cuddyer this year. Also remember that Rios joined a World Series team. I’m sure that’s part of the discount in years.
Not sure why you wouldn’t touch Aoki. He would have been a good fit for the leadoff-less Mets.
Cuddyer got an AAV of 10.5. Rios got 11. That’s basically no difference. And he didn’t cost a draft pick.
I realize you’re trying to be optimistic, but Cuddyer has just as many flaws as any other free agent and let’s not pretend that there weren’t any options available.
Problem with Aoki is that he’s a similar player to Lagares in terms of lack of power. If the Mets wanted to go that route, they would have just stuck with MDD.
I’m not saying there weren’t other options, I just don’t think they were any better than Cuddyer, considering the length of contract the Mets were looking for.
You also can’t forget the 1B part of the equation as none of those other guys could play that position.
Can’t imagine that losing a draft choice and $21 million will be worth Cuddyer for two years of service. There were several much better options out there for the taking. No doubt about it, this was clearly an effort to do something for David Wright. Is it possible Cuddyer can have a good year? Absolutely. But when you’re building a world-class pitching staff (and the Mets are), you want to surround those young arms with excellent defensive players as much as possible. Granderson and Cuddyer platooning in LF is fine, especially with Lagares and a good glove and arm in RF. Cuddyer is a minus in either corner OF slot. But the plan is not to platoon these guys (as much as it would make perfect sense). That’s because they are paying both way too much AND gave up a draft choice. As sensible as platooning is, it has hit hard times around MLB due to these inflated salaries. There is no doubt in my mind that a platoon of Granderson/Cuddyer in LF, Nieuwenhuis/Puello in RF (and Duda/Mayberry at 1B) could put up very good numbers and offer better defense than Grandy in LF and Cuddyer in RF most of the time. But this is baseball economics in 2015. Do you think Casey Stengel, Gil Hodges, Yogi Berra, Davey Johnson or Bobby V. would sit around and play the guy with the highest salary or would they play the guy most likely to brutalize the opposing pitcher with his bat?
If the Mets are trying to compete next season, I think it’s definitely worth losing the pick. Looking out at the market, Justin Upton and Wil Myers would have costed the Mets multiple prospects, and Cuddyer’s contract enables the organization to call up Conforto or Nimmo when they become ready for the MLB. Time will definitely tell though, because if Cuddyer struggles staying healthy, it’s hard to justify losing the first round pick.
Nice points made about the players who have been drafted with the 15th overall pick. Prospects are always a gamble, but hopefully the Cuddyer signing works out.
It wasn’t 22 million and a 1st round pick for Cuddyer. It was 22 million a 1st round pick and between 40% and 45% of our draft allotment money. That draft allotment money is more important than the pick. With it you can sign over slot players and make up at least somewhat for the loss of the pick. In one fell swoop with the signing of an aging (years 36 and 37 seasons) injury prone, DH/1B (he isn’t really an OFer anymore he will basically stand out there like a traffic cone) we pretty much torpedoed an entire draft. Not the kind of move I envisioned when Mr Moneyball was hired in 2010.
I hate this thinking.
If anything, I’d rather pay more money on my first-round pick and skimp later. You have the highest chance of getting a star-level player in the first round so why would you “save” money there to spend later on? It’s that thinking that ends you up with Gavin Cecchini as your first-round pick.
Last year’s first-round pick – Michael Conforto – the one that everyone is excited about? He signed a slot-level bonus. No money was saved for future picks.
Nimmo was under slot also is he a bust? But that is really irrelevant imo, so then you must really hate the Cuddyer signing because we lost both the 1st round pick and the ability to compensate marginally with over slot signings later on.
Nimmo was a gamble. I think most people felt he would be available as a supplemental pick. At the time that pick was made, I liked it because he had a ton of upside. It doesn’t look like he’s going to develop great power but it looks like he’ll be a solid MLB regular. I have no complaints with that pick.
Please see https://mets360.com/?p=23641 for my take on the Cuddyer signing.
He was a gamble but he was also a pick signed under slot something you said you disliked. I get it you don’t like the practice in general but when it works out you can live with it. When it turns into a Cecchini then your not so ok with it. Personally I was expecting to see a little more consistency but it is human nature.
From the beginning, Brian never liked the pick because he had a low ceiling to begin with (which is likely why he was signed for underslot). His thinking on him hasn’t really wavered the last few years either.
My goal is to acquire talent. There are guys who have it now and you have to pay above slot to get it. There are guys who have upside which you may or may not have to pay a premium for. Nimmo was unusual in this regard in that a lot of teams shied away from him because he came from a state without HS baseball. If he came from Florida instead of Wyoming he would not have been valued the same.
When the Mets drafted Cecchini, I wanted them to take Lucas Giolito because he had more current talent and more upside. Giolito made it known that he wanted above-slot money, which eliminated the Mets from taking him. Coming into 2014, he was Baseball America’s #21 prospect and after he went 10-2 with a 2.20 ERA, I’m positive he’ll move up. Maybe Cecchini cracks the top 100 this year for the first time. Maybe.
Odds are stacked against getting a top 20 prospect by going cheap in the first round. Nimmo should crack the top 100 this year but he won’t be top 20. But if his power had developed, he would have had a shot at that. Cecchini had no shot of ever being a top 20 prospect.
For whatever motives they had, the Mets made up their minds that they wanted Cuddyer no matter what. Hard to believe that they feel he will put them over the top more than Rios or Hunter would, and the draft money will hurt. Seems like they are looking at Cuddyer as a handcuff to Duda, but I was hoping Duda would get some starts against lefties to get some experience against them. It’s ironic that the Mets jump at players like Granderson and Cuddyer and overpay, but drag their feet at getting players that they may have to compete for.
The Mets going into the offseason seemed to have little money to spend and a need for an impact bat in a corner outfield position. They may have been better off signing Markakis, a better all around player, who is younger,cheaper and without a draft pick assigned. Markakis for four years may have blocked Nimmo or Conforto but isn’t that counting your chickens before they hatch? They could always trade Nick in the future at that salary. I can’t fault Sandy for acting quickly and getting Cuddyer at a reasonable price but I was unaware of Rob’s point concerning the draft money. In hindsight he may have acted too quickly but the “need” had to be addressed.
Markakis is not really cheaper if he signed the same deal as he did with the Braves. Markakis is making $11 million a year over the next four years and and Cuddyer’s AAV is $10.5 million. Markakis had surgery on his neck, which was successful, but can he be a productive player coming off of the surgery? Teams choose untested young players over veterans all time and what are the Mets going to do with Nimmo when he is ready at the latest 2016 when they would have Lagares in center for the foreseeable future, and Granderson signed through 2017 and Markakis signed through 2018. Nimmo is not going to stay down in Triple-A for those seasons unless he struggles greatly. They cannot just trade him in the future if the wanted to. Markakis because if he is not a productive enough player for the Mets to want to keep then how much would another team give up for him and how much of his contract would the Mets have to cover if they trade him with two and a half years left. It would be like if the Mets wanted to trade Granderson part of the way through this year, probably not going to happen. Cuddyer also provides more flexibility at first base. I do not doubt that Markakis could play first if he needed, but Cuddyer has more experience at first base. And Markakis is also a lefty, although he can hit lefty pitchers quite well, not as good as Cuddyer can.
I did not know about the draft money loss either, which I see as somewhat concerning, but Sandy has drafted well so far and signed some good international prospects building the Mets a top five farm system.
Without giving up too much and signing to big of a deal, I think the Cuddyer deal works out nicely for the Mets. The contract is not a crazy amount of money that after a season they could trade him and eat a little bit of his contract and it would not be a huge burden and if he performs well an AL playoff ready team will want him. He is not a long-term solution just a stop gap player until Nimmo is ready for the majors.
One of the big things that I think Nimmo will work on this season is playing the corner outfield positions. With Lagares in center, he is not likely to be moved off of center if he is in the lineup. It should be a relatively easy transition for him to make, but it will help the Mets decide when a good time for him to be brought up is and he profiles more as a corner outfielder anyway. Also, possibly hitting for more power which he started doing in 2014 as he got older and bigger. His walk rates are pretty good at 14.8% for his minor league career, but his strikeout rate is a little high at 23.3%. He lower it slightly in 2014 to 18.8%.
All in all, I like the Cuddyer to move and it provides a nice player until someone else is ready to take his spot.