Recently, there was a report by Joel Sherman of the New York Post in which he had previously interviewed six MLB executives and one scout. One of his questions to the group was comparing the Mets and the Marlins: which of the two teams were more prepared for the upcoming season. The outcome was four in favor of the Marlins and three for the Mets. Does three to four really mean that the Marlins are superior to the Mets? No, but that doesn’t mean the Mets are better than their NL East counterpart. I’m sure that going into the offseason there would be more love for the Mets, but the Marlins clearly have done an amazing job in upgrading their players. In any event, how do the Mets and Marlins stack up against each other by individual positions? Let’s take a look.
Catcher: Travis d’Arnaud (Mets) vs. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Marlins)
Advantage: Travis d’Arnaud (Mets)
Coming off of his worst season since his days in Texas, Saltalamacchia seems to be on the downswing of a very brief peak. He struck out at an insane rate and didn’t exactly hit righties as he usually does. d’Arnaud, on the other hand, is on the upswing of a very bright future posting very solid numbers in the second half for a catcher. Unless Saltalamacchia can produce the same numbers that he posted in 2013 for Boston there is really no question that d’Arnaud will easily surpass Saltalamacchia and make a run for the best catcher in the division.
First Base: Lucas Duda (Mets) vs. Michael Morse (Marlins)
Advantage: Lucas Duda (Mets)
This one was actually closer than I would like to admit, but in the end it came down to the OPS+ difference and number of at-bats. With a solid .279/.336/.475 slash line for Morse in comparison to the .253/.349/.481 line for Duda, Morse actually compares quite well. Morse hit better in San Francisco than on the road and he played for a championship Giants team, but had over 100 less PA than Duda and managed to strikeout almost as many times. Morse is a fine player and has the history of putting up numbers superior to Duda, but as of right now he is a tick lower than the slugging lefty.
Second Base: Daniel Murphy (Mets) vs. Dee Gordon (Marlins)
Advantage: Dee Gordon (Marlins)
While it hurts to say this, and Gordon’s second half numbers suggest a step back down to earth, Gordon holds a firm advantage over our beloved Murphy. Both were about even in 2014 in terms of batting average and on-base percentage, but Murphy had the obvious step-up in slugging percentage. That being said, Gordon has an enormous advantage in speed and overall athleticism. Gordon is heading into his age-27 season while Murphy is about to find out what his thirties will be like. While Murphy could easily out-perform Gordon, it seems as if Gordon will have an initial advantage.
Shortstop: Wilmer Flores (Mets) vs. Adeiny Hechavarria (Marlins)
Advantage: Adeiny Hechavarria (Marlins)
This one was actually a pretty easy decision simply based on the amount of experience each have had in the big leagues. While Hechavarria is actually known for his glove, he has yet to be a big hit with sabermetricians – but he passes the eye test. Bat-wise Flores clearly has the potential to leapfrog Hechavarria and become a much better hitter, but he has not done that yet. In the end, this one was simply decided by experience yet there is clearly a chance that Flores will surpass the Marlins shortstop.
Third Base: David Wright (Mets) vs. Martin Prado (Marlins)
Advantage: David Wright (Mets)
With the lack of production at the position, there are two pretty solid players at hand here. Wright easily had his worst season to date never really getting anything going and ultimately got shut down. However, Prado continued producing at a reasonable level – not as high as his days in Atlanta, but he hit considerably well. The advantage is only going to the Mets because if, in fact, the injury slowed Wright down, then Wright will bounce back and become a top-25 player in the majors. If, however, Wright continues a downfall, then Prado will have the upper hand.
Left Field: Curtis Granderson (Mets) vs. Christian Yelich (Marlins)
Advantage: Christian Yelich (Marlins)
Even if the fences accommodate to Granderson’s game and his numbers increase by a noticeable margin, Yelich will still have the clear advantage as he is basically a younger version of Granderson. Yelich is at the ripe age of 23 with a splendid career ahead of him (even though the Marlins will probably trade him) and Granderson is on the downswing of a solid career. There is no discussion; Yelich is better offensively and defensively.
Center Field: Juan Lagares (Mets) vs. Marcell Ozuna (Marlins)
Advantage: Too close to tell
This is really where the debate gets interesting. Center field is the only position where there is no clear superior player. Lagares holds an excellent glove, but the Mets also discovered Ozuna’s glove talent in mid-June. Ozuna might have a better power bat, but Lagares had a superior batting average and on-base percentage. At this point, Marlins’ fans will just say that Ozuna is better, but Mets’ fans will counter that claim. Submitting a bias opinion for this one is not a good idea, so let’s let the players decide in 2015.
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer (Mets) vs. Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins)
Advantage: Do I even have to say it?
I really didn’t want to jot down an explanation, but it felt like that would be completely putting down Cuddyer. Cuddyer is a fine player and could contribute some fine numbers along with veteran leadership. In the end, Stanton has more power than anyone playing baseball today, enough said.
Starting Rotation:
Mets: Matt Harvey
Jacob deGrom
Zack Wheeler
Jon Niese
Bartolo Colon/Dillon Gee
vs.
Marlins: Henderson Alvarez
Mat Latos
Jarrod Cosart
Dan Haren
(up for grabs until Jose Fernandez returns)
Advantage: Mets
At this point in time, with the current players that will available on opening day, the Mets hold an advantage over the Marlins. When Fernandez returns there might be a different discussion, but with a few guys looking for rebound years on the Marlins and a few guys looking to turn good seasons into great ones on the Mets, the choice is clear.
Closer: Jenrry Mejia (Mets) vs. Steve Cishek (Marlins)
Advantage: Steve Cishek (Marlins)
Never considered an elite reliever, Cishek actually has been extremely effective over the past two seasons as a closer – only blowing six saves in 79 opportunities. Mejia has the potential to be a solid closer and might do even better then Cishek considering his miniscule blown-save rate, but as of right now he is not as good as Cishek.
(I have decided not to do the rest of the bullpen and the bench because they fluctuate from year-to-year and it would be impossible to call an advantage.)
These two teams seem to be evenly matched on many different levels, but if we go off of last year, the Mets seemed to own the Marlins and were a better team. That being said, a lot has changed and there is certainly a wild-card spot up for grabs. If history has shown us anything it is that the fan base could see a collapse coming for both teams. Ultimately it is performance and not discussion that decides the superior organization.
Bold prediction: Stanton will once again be hurt and miss over a month. He seems to attract injuries.
Murphy > Gordon and it isn’t even close in my book.
One has 4 straight solid seasons under his belt and the other has 3 good months in the last 4 years.
I think Catcher and 1b are closer to even pushes, with the slight advantage to the Mets on both if i had to choose one.
I’d take Murphy over Gordon due to consistency. I don’t think we know what Gordon is yet, while Murphy is about as consistent as it gets.
SS could easily go to Flores this year. Hechavarria is a terrific fielder, but if Flores holds his own in the field and hits well, he’ll have more value. Right now, with the uncertainty of what Flores will accomplish or if he is even the SS, the Marlins get a minimal edge.
Ozuna had 23 HR’s and 85 RBI….an ops almost 100 pts higher. I would trade Lagares for him yesterday…and I’m a Lego Fan!
Ah Julian! Can we add one more comparison to your narrative? While it technically isn’t a position it may prove pivotal in which of these two teams will finish ahead of the other. Manager? Who would you prefer?
Collins of course! Calm down that’s a joke. But yes, Mike Redmond makes Terry Collins look like a crying baby and if we went off of the managers, the Marlins would be the better team. That being said, at a certain point we have to put some of the pressure on the players. For the first time in years, both teams have solid major leaguers on the field at the same time and they have to contribute at the end of the day.
Great comparisons. Think murphy has the edge offensively. Think marlins were crazy to trade evoldi without jose fernandez back yet. Set backs are always possible with tommy john. Our pitching will prevail in the end
Hey Will isn’t Matt Harvey coming back from Tommy John surgery? Didn’t the Mets just have a pitcher require a second Tommy John surgery before he even finished his first rehab from TJ surgery?
Comparing position by position makes it look like the Mets may be better. Comparing the heart of the order Ozuna- Stanton-Morse to Wright-Duda-Cuddyer and I think pitchers fear the Marlins more. The Mets have no comparison to Stanton. Compare the up the middle defense, C-2B-SS-CF and again I like the Marlins more. The Mets currently have better and deeper starting pitching but the Marlins young starters have a tremendous upside too. The pitching gap narrows with the return of Fernandez. The Mets don’t have a player that will close the offensive gap thzt Stanton provides.The debate for who is the better team for 2015 is close and the lack of a fifth starter may be too much for the Marlins to compensate for but I think the Marlins are a better constructed team.
Ummm, David Wright?
A healthy David Wright is easily just as good as Stanton.
In 2012 Wright posted a 7.5 fWAR mark.
In 2013, Wright posted a 6 fWAR mark, in 112 games. Prorated to 150 games, that’s 8 WAR. For comparison, that’s only slightly behind Tulo’s 2014 prorated fWAR of 8.4.
Stanton had 5.6 fWAR in 2012, prorated to 6.8
2014 he had 6.1 fWAR.
So in the past 3 years, Wright has 2 seasons of 7.5+ prorated fWAR while Stanton has yet to even crack 7.0 in his career.
And while Stanton is much younger, he’s not a lock to get better for the next few years. Stanton played 2014 at age 24 and that’s been his best year to date. Wright played 07 at age 24 and that has been his best year to date. In 08, he was still awesome, but was a tick worse compared to 07, and 09-10 he fell back to really really good player instead of elite player (could have also been due to Citi Field) He dealt with some injuries and finally regained elite form in 2012.
And Wright didn’t develop the injury-riddled moniker until at least 2011 while Stanton already has that reputation now.
Name, you know Wright is my favorite Met but this is 2015. If I could trade Wright for Stanton I would do it in a heartbeat. But I think your point that Wright could close the gap is true but Stanton may increase that gap more also.
if the Mets wanted to close the offensive gap, and the defensive gap, then they should go get Tulo. The team would look alot better with a Tulo-Duda-Wright middle, a keystone combo of Tulo – Murphy and Julian could be writing an article on comparing the Mets and Nats position by position. Happy New Year buddy and we can discuss it further in the chatter in April.
Obviously you take Stanton 100 times out of 100 if you’re talking about the next 5-10 years, but at least for next year i think David Wright’s potential is just as high, and maybe possibly be a tick higher, as Stanton’s. Of course Wright’s floor is also much lower because he’s older.
Stanton’s average case is higher than Wright’s too.
If I had to plot low-average-hi fWAR for both players, i’d probably go 1.5-3.5-7.5 for Wright and skewed to the left and 2.5-4.5-7 for Stanton with a normal distribution.
While Wright and Granderson have played under the pressure of a playoff race (with mixed results), You’re right Julian. It’s time for these players to put it or shut up. The Met fan base deserves to see meaningful games in September. lets see how TC handles a team that has expectations. Besides he’s playing without a contract so he has to Alderson that he is the right man to lead this team to the playoffs and maybe…
I like all of your comparisons, and while I love Murphy, it seems that Gordon has the fielding advantage, and his speed is out of sight. Stanton is not just better than our RF, but he also makes up for weakness at another position. Stanton and Wright have both performed admirably the past few years despite no team around them, and injury bugs. I welcome a return of Wright to his average play. I fear Stanton’s best season.
Just a note on Gordon’s speed. It also really slumped, along with everything else, in the 2nd half. From July onwards, he had 24 SB to 11 CS. That’s a 68% success rate, which is not good at all.