At FanGraphs, Josh Barnes posted a wonderful piece of community research concluding that Jon Niese is poised to have a breakout season in 2015. Before continuing reading this article, I’d highly recommend reading what Barnes wrote if you haven’t already.
His reasoning is that Niese developed a solid changeup in 2014, leading to its increased usage in August and September, leading to greater success not only with his fastball and cutter playing off the pitch, but overall as well. His strikeout and walk rates improved, as did his FIP and xFIP. September was arguably the best month of his season.
All of the evidence (and his position on the aging curve) seems to point toward Niese being poised for a career year in 2015. Like Barnes says, he probably doesn’t have the tools to magically become an ace, but he very well could be a better-than-just-average starter.
But even with a breakout season in 2015, it is hard to imagine Niese being a significant piece on the Mets going too far into the future. At this point one could make a convincing argument that he’s the sixth-best starting pitcher on the 40-man roster, behind Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Bartolo Colon.
Assuming that Niese does make the Opening Day rotation and that Barnes is correct about Niese’s improved changeup leading to greater success in 2015, Niese is sure to be a hot commodity at the July 31st Trade Deadline. A left-handed starter in his prime having a great season is an attractive piece for a team that desires pitching. If they have say, a shortstop available to deal, the Mets might be able to hammer out a trade.
This, of course, all hinges on not only Niese experiencing a breakout, but also the MLB-readiness of Syndergaard and perhaps Steven Matz. It also depends heavily on Niese staying healthy, something which throughout his career has been a significant problem. But it would be a nice luxury to only have to worry about Niese’s health, rather than his performance.
The “upside” for Niese is Health…pure and simple. Decreasing Velocity and a history of nicks and dings past 170 innings…. He has 150 very competitive Starts, and that is what he is. The W-L record will be about ability to 1) show up 2) pitch to and through the 7th inning 3) run support.
I don’t see a breakout…it’s a guy coping with lost Velocity and adding skill. No reason it can’t work… nice #4 pitcher when healthy
That would also depend if the Mets were in a wildcard race. If not then Niese should be able to bring back either a position player who is already in the big leagues or several high level prospects. That being said I would hold on to him and his team friendly contract and move Colon first before focusing any attention on Niese.
While I agree that I would rather move Colon, let me just play Devil’s Advocate here for a minute.
If a team will give you a Double A prospect for Colon or a MLB-ready guy for Niese, do you still trade Colon over Niese? Let’s assume for this question that Niese is going to be 10% better than Colon for the remainder of the season, and that the MLB-ready player you’d get in return for Niese is 15% better than the player he’d be replacing on the 25-man roster, presumably Wilmer Flores at SS.
Colon is not part of the Mets future. He brings you a player(s) you add to your farm system. If the Mets have an opportunity to trade for Tulo and the asking price includes Niese you do it simply because the Mets have the depth and ability to replace either starter. Please note that I’m being realistic with the Mets payroll. I don’t see the team entering the 2015 season with a 100 million dollar payroll. Especially after the front office traded Ike and further reduced the payroll for 2014 to 80 million dollars. Taking that into consideration I would apply some potion of the 11 million towards an upgrade at SS.
Interesting articles. I believe that Niese is the Mets 3rd best starter just ahead of Wheeler.Wheeler should pass Niese in 2015 if he improves his BB/9. Jon is a solid #3 major league starter. He also had 30 starts last season and only 28 NL pitchers threw more innings. Colon is just holding the 5th starter spot for Thor and unfortunately blocking Montero this spring. If the Mets are going to trade a non minimum salaried starter for “financial reasons” then I would rather trade Colon or Gee before Niese. If the Mets are looking to improve the team at a position then I would include Wheeler in the mix of tradeable pitchers also. Keeping a cost controlled #3 starter like Niese is not a bad option.
Niese has always been the guy I’d expect to take a great step forward and really breakout. I think he’s already an above-average starter, who just needs to stay healthy. That being said, it will be interesting to see how he starts off and what the Mets decide on doing. His contract is pretty good considering what pitchers are now getting, but if they don’t have a need for him, it makes sense to deal him.
“At this point one could make a convincing argument that he’s the sixth-best starting pitcher on the 40-man roster,”
A convincing argument that he’s worse than Colon, Wheeler, and Syndergaard? I’ll be convinced when one is actually made.
6th best Pitcher “argument”… includes 1) a Post Surgical Patient, 2) a Guy who has not Pitched a Big League Inning, and 3) an old fat Man whose next inning is an even bigger surprise than his last.
Niese is a quality #3 and even #2 at times. He is a fantastic value, and if the Mets can anything other than a highly touted prospect or two, or MLB ready player out of the deal, they got screwed.