With the Mets offseason drifting toward a close and a possible Dillon Gee trade lurking, a curveball was thrown at Mets fans. According to Ken Rosenthal, the Mets were apparently in talks with the Washington Nationals and Tampa Bay Rays over a potential three-team deal that included Ian Desmond, Ben Zobrist, and, of course, Noah Syndergaard. With Wilmer Flores currently slated to start for the Metropolitans at shortstop, the discontent of Mets fans has been palpable. This, in addition to the front office always looking to improve the team, has unfortunately led to an uneventful search for a new shortstop. This is not news to Mets fans who are already aware due to the consistent chatter about potential Troy Tulowitzki and Brad Miller/Chris Taylor trades. However, on Sunday night a seemingly unattainable shortstop was apparently close to arriving in Queens. But how much could Desmond really help the Mets? At this current point in time, the Mets are actually better off passing on the projected deal and here are three reasons why.
Losing seven or more seasons of Noah Syndergaard and a hitting prospect is far worse than missing one year of Ian Desmond
As with any potential deal involving a shortstop, the heavily coveted Syndergaard was involved in the talks in addition to a top-hitting prospect. The argument over whether or not to trade Syndergaard has been outplayed, but in the end he has the potential to be the ace of an amazing staff. Trading a pitcher of his caliber would be a mistake and the Mets would regret this deal for years. It hurts to say this, but the only location that Syndergaard should be allowed to go to is Colorado – a place where he has the least amount of opportunity to succeed. As selfish and irresponsible as that sounds, it may be the best option. Pitchers young and old head into a tailspin after experiencing 14-17 starts at Coors Field as season.
With regard to a top hitting prospect, the Mets should be dangling players such as Kevin Plawecki, Dilson Herrera, Wilmer Flores and Cesar Puello. That being said, trading these players just for the sake of trading them is not something the Mets should look to do. In the end, giving up two top prospects that could turn into all-stars for one former all-star is not the best decision.
Desmond could regress and could also sign in less than 12 months
Over the past three seasons, the Nationals have had a renaissance within the organization and a part of the rebirth has been thanks to Desmond. However, since his breakout season in 2012, Desmond has slowly regressed in certain offensive categories. While his power has remained steady, surpassing 20 homeruns in each of the last three seasons, his strikeout rates have increased; 20.7% in 2012 to 22.1% in 2013 and to 28.2% in 2014. Fangraphs predicts Desmond will post a 24.9% strikeout rate in 2015 which still should concern Alderson. Because of this increased strikeout rate, it has caused a decline in his batting average, on base-percentage and slugging percentage.
While it seems a little picky to be looking at this decline, considering he is a top-five shortstop in baseball, it should be noted. A big problem in acquiring Desmond is that he is entering his free-agent walk year. Acquiring Desmond with the scary possibility that he will sign somewhere else is much too risky especially considering the Mets could sign him next offseason. If Desmond has a season like 2012 during the upcoming campaign, the Mets could open the bank with Barolo Colon coming off the books and sign him.
The trade makes the Nationals a better team
This may be a very short-sighted and selfish reason to reject a trade of this caliber, but at the end of the day, making the Nationals better is not a very good idea. In the projected deal, the Nationals were set to acquire Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar. These two players could potentially help the Nationals with depth, excellent defense and very solid offensive numbers. Even with the loss of Desmond the team would gain an extremely versatile player in Zobrist. The Nationals, at this point in time, are the main rival and competition of the Mets and this would not make the NL East race any closer.
“With Wilmer Flores currently slated to start for the Metropolitans at shortstop, the discontent of Mets fans has been palpable.”
Wrong, wrong, and wrong! Most Mets fans that I talk to and read feel that Flores should be given a chance to play. Stop the editorializing. Stop it now!
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At this point, I felt that the voices of the people who do not want Flores starting has been louder than those who do want him starting. In fact, I am of the population that would not be irked if he played everyday.
Just a note, one of these things is not like the others: “Kevin Plawecki, Dilson Herrera, Wilmer Flores and Cesar Puello”
I have major concerns about Desmond regressing, especially considering his offensive numbers have dropped each of the last two years while he’s busy arguing for a major contract. If he were entering his prime with great numbers and the Wilpons were willing to spend, I’d offer Plawecki and Gee for Desmond and a window to sign an extension.
The Mets can barely sign anyone these days, so we aren’t going to be in the race for his services either through extension talks or through free agency when he will cost maybe $12-15 million a year. So we’d have one year of potentially All-Star SS play and a draft pick instead of years of play from two or three prospects. I hate hearing that pitching isn’t worth as much anymore, as everyone is looking for hitters. But hey, if that’s the climate, then hold your cards, because everyone is asking far too much for giving up far too little.
Not worth 1 year for noah alone let alone noah and another top prospect. If the Mets could sign him for 2-3 more years it would be worth it… but no way Desmond does that. He’s looking for his big payday. This is just another case of other teams trying to see if SA is feeling desperate to assuage the fan base and go into “win now” mode. Which is exactly how we acquired Noah and Travis, Black and Herrera. All expected to be major contributors in 2015 or 2016. It’s apparent he’s not, good for you, Sandy.
I think Desmond would be a great pickup, but not at the price that was discussed. If it was Montero and a lesser prospect, I say do it, but not Noah and Nimmo or Plawecki.
The other point here is that Flores’ absolute ceiling offensively could be Desmond with fewer SO’s, which makes dealing that package the Rays wanted even more ridiculous.
I am in agreement that Flores deserves a shot. But the one name I am not hearing often enough is Matt Reynolds. He is tearing it up in the minors and should be plan B. Tejada is one guy I never want to see in a Met uniform again. Unless you are getting Tolo or another superstar shortstop there aren’t many upgrades to be be found.