The Nationals just signed Max Scherzer to a huge contract that improves their rotation. Rumors are floating that Stephen Strasburg is on his way out, which is good news for Mets fans as he has dominated them for the past few seasons. The Mets have a lot of young pitching that could compete against the Nationals, but the Nationals starters have experience on their side. Their bullpen is nothing to laugh at either even after trading away Tyler Clippard. The only way the Mets can really hope to compete for the East is to best the Nationals lineup.
Due to the fact that Ian Desmond might be on his way out and be replaced by Yunel Escobar, that puts a huge dent in their lineup’s power department. They also no longer have Adam LaRoche‘s big power lefty bat in the lineup, who is being replaced by a often injured Ryan Zimmerman. It also seems that Danny Espinosa is going to be starting at second base if Desmond gets traded and he has never really hit all that well for average, and his power has severely diminished since his rookie year in 2011. A nice bright spot on the Nationals infield though is young third baseman Anthony Rendon. Last year he won the National League third base Silver Slugger, and came in fifth in the MVP balloting last year. Their outfield is a very solid as it stands right now, especially with Denard Span in center who hits well for average and provides solid defense. Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth are no slouches in the corners either. Harper just needs to slow himself down a little, so that he can stay on the field more. Also, Werth is on the wrong side of 35 and declined last season losing a decent amount of his power. Their catcher Wilson Ramos also needs to stay healthy and come in once in a while in the clutch in the bottom part of the Nationals order. There is some concern for the Nationals, but if they can flip Strasburg and Desmond for a nice bat in the lineup at second base, then the lineup would be a lot better.
The Mets are not the only team with question marks, but the Nationals do have the upper hand by far, but the Mets should be able to play some great games against them this season. The games they play against the Nationals will be crucial if they want to even think about the National League East title. Hopefully, Kevin Long can work with the Mets hitters enough to fix things like Curtis Granderson‘s drop in average and Lucas Duda‘s inability to hit lefties. The Mets did make some moves in signing Michael Cuddyer and John Mayberry Jr. to take some of the at bats against lefties, which will definitely help. Some did not like the Mayberry signing, but it could be a huge bat off the bench for the Mets. Versus left handed pitchers he hit .243/.341/.571 and hit .400/.438/.933, and he can play first base and any of the three outfield positions. He is not the signing the Mets needed to make to be a top division team, but he will be able to contribute to the team in a meaningful way, like how Anthony Recker seems to mash a home run every time the Mets need him to when he plays. Are the Nationals the better team as of right now? Probably, but the Mets are not going to go down easy and are going to fight them for the East and if not at least be in serious contention for the wild card.
“Are the Nationals the better team as of right now? Probably, but the Mets are not going to go down easy and are going to fight them for the East and if not at least be in serious contention for the wild card.”
Probably. You can’t possibly be serious. The Nats are headed to 100 wins this year with the present team. I think your question should replace the word Nationals with Marlins, then you might have something to talk about. The Nationals are heads and shoulders above every team in the MLB. The Mets finished 17 games behind the Nats and lost something lime 13 or so games head to head. The Nats have gotten better and are all in to win the World Series, the Mets are a dream for a wild card.
The Nationals keep improving (albeit that they were more talented than our Mets prior to any hot stove moves). And Fred along with Jeff just continue to sit there with their proverbial thumbs up their respective butts. How sad. The excuse to avoid spending less than 100K no longer holds any validity. The Wilpons continue to be oblivious to their fan base. Great! So we will continue to boycott Citifield!
I agree with you that the Nationals are very likely to win the East and are a better overall team. My point being anything can happen and their lineup does not look as formidable as it has before especially if Desmond is gone. My personal opinion, but I would not be surprised if the Mets score close to the amount of runs as the Nationals this season. I think that the lose of LaRoche will be significant for them and if they do not have Desmond going into Opening Day.
Tyler, “anything can happen” is pure wishful thinking, belief in something you know not to be true. The Nats finished 17 ahead of the Mets, and with the best rotation in baseball, by far, there is no chance to close that gap in a meaningful way. Last night on MLB channel, Smoltz and Darling were asked to rank the best rotations in the game, and both said the Nats going away. Not even Ronnie mentioned the Mets for this year. Were all excited, but again the question marks out shine the sure things. The signings of an aging, mostly inert Cuddyer (who will look just like Bay, Young, Grandy), and a hapless Mayberry is hardly the heavy lifting needed to move the Mets into any serious discussion.
Chris the Mets signed a 35 year old as their marquee FA signing to put them over the top (BS) while the Nat’s let a 35 year old walk. That says it all..
Ding! Not to discredit all 35-year-olds, of course
The Nationals won 96 games last year and just signed Max Scherzer. The Mets were not competing on paper before that and the gap just widened. Thank goodness the actual games are played between the white lines where anything is possible, It just doesn’t look too good right now.
Imagine if the Mets were the team that signed Scherzer instead. Why are you laughing at that remark? You say they can’t afford those type of contracts. Why, because they told us they can’t? They play in the largest market and have the greatest potential to make a profit.They have built a farm system that is primed to compete for at least the next five years but the Nats, with one signature on a check, are also primed to compete for the next five years and they have a head start. The severe financial restrictions that this ownership has put on this team has come to light with the Scherzer signing, This ownership can’t compete financially with the Nats and will always be shoveling sand against the tide.
Just wait when they trade Gee and Colon for being conscientious owners and bringing down the payroll back to affordability (80-85 million)
I think only one of them will be traded prior to Opening Day. Montero will probably go to the bullpen and the rotation will be Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Niese, and Gee or Colon. Syndergaard at least for the first portion of the season could be used in placed of Harvey to stretch him out a bit or rest the others every once in a while. But they could also use Montero in that situation as well and keep him in the bullpen for the rest of the time and then have Syndergaard have a few more starts in Triple-A and make a decision around June-July to bring him up.
I think the rumor was the Nat’s trading Zimmerman not Strasburg. Again they were just rumors about Desmond as well. The Nat’s have depth. The Mets have question marks. All things being equal moving Ryan Zimmerman to play first base is an addition by subtraction for the Nat’s who don’t have to worry about his errant throws any more. He can more than adequately compensate for Larouche’s offense. Compete with the Nat’s? Are you joking? Well it is January. Let’s see. Math 101. The Nat’s just add one of the best starters in the Major Leagues to the number one rotation in the National League and the Mets have done? Nothing Zero. Squat. How does that equate to the Mets surging next to the Nat’s? Sorry but the Mets have their sights set on a wild card. Maybe. And as Chris stated the Nat’s are gunning for a World Series.
Delusional..Mets compete with the Nats?..I seriously doubt that.
Would love to go position by position in comparing the two teams. But, that’s only in the infield. In the infield, the Mets can compete with a good year from Wright and what we are hoping for from the rest. In the outfield, it’s a slaughter. Their best all around outfielder Harper is better than our best, Lagares. Their 35 year old right fielder is better than our 36 year old, and then Span is actually close to Granderson because I’m expecting better from Granderson than last year.
I think that any regression on the Nats can be overcome. Any regression in the Mets is a problem.
Just a quick analysis:
d’Arnaud = Ramos(Ramos has defense and d’Arnaud has offense, probably a wash)
Duda > Zimmerman
Murphy > Espinosa or Escobar
Wright <= Rendon (Rendon played really well last year and was even better when playing third base and will likely be better than Wrigh, but not by much)
Flores<Desmond, Flores=Escobar(Desmond will outperform Flores offensively and has average defense, and Escobar has defense on lock, but little offense)
Granderson<Harper
Lagares <= Span(Span is a better hitter, but Lagares has potential and has gold glove defense)
Werth<Cuddyer(If Cuddyer stays healthy, he will hit well, but the edge goes to Werth on hitting and he is a better defender too)
The Nationals do not run away with it, but do win overall. LaRoche was definitely a big piece of the lineup that I think most are underestimating how much he helped the lineup. He also thrived in Nationals Park hitting to a tune of a .916 OPS. The loss of LaRoche is not going to kill them but will definitely have an effect on them.
It’s a team game. And an overall better team is a force multiplier. The whole is worth more than the sum of its parts. Wins don’t pile up based infield ground ball drills.
Hi Gus,
“In the infield, the Mets can compete with a good year from Wright and what we are hoping for from the rest.”
That pretty much sums up the Mets vs Nationals. They know pretty much what they are going to get from their people, we on the other hand are hoping.
Nationals a lock for 100 wins. Nationals the team to beat. Nationals shoo-in division champs. Nationals World Series favorites.
Hmmm, sounds like i’ve heard this before? Oh yea. This was the sentiment going into the 2013 season.
And what happened?
They fell flat on their faces and at the end of August were just 68-67 and weren’t ever even serious wild card contenders.
So it’s happened before and could happen again, so let’s take a look at the details.
Catchers:
2012-659 OPS
2013-661 OPS
2014-642 OPS
The Nats catchers have been remarkably consistently bad, because they continue to rely on the injury-riddled Wilson Ramos, who gets hurts every year and thus they are forced to use a crappy backup.
In 2015, they plan on bringing back Ramos and Lobaton, and there’s no reason to suggest that the catchers won’t perform similarly in 2015.
First basemen
2012-902 OPS
2013-742 OPS
2014-800 OPS
One of the big reasons why the 2013 Nats did not perform was LaRoche. He went from hero in 2012 to zero in 2013. In 2014, he rebounded to have a solid season.
In 2015, the Nats are planning to use the chronically injured Ryan Zimmerman at 1b, someone who i would not bet on playing 100 games next year. So i’d expect to see a lot of bench players, which isn’t particularly deep, at 1b in 2015 and it’s not hard to envision another huge dropoff in production just like 2013.
Second base:
2012-699 OPS
2013-670 OPS
2014-672 OPS
Another position in which the Nats struggle to get production. Although one might expect similar production in 2015, a lot of the 2013/2014 production was propped up by Rendon, who will occupy 3b this year. Espinosa and Escobar and projected to man this spot, with 2013 OPS of 634 and 662 last year, it’s easy for me to see a drop off in this position as well.
Shortstop
2012-844 OPS
2013-772 OPS
2014-734 OPS
One of the reasons I believe the Nats had such a good in 2012 was because of a fluky career season by Desmond. He regressed back to normal in 2013 and took another step backwards in 2014. While i personally believe Desmond’s production will take another notch down in 2015, ill give him the benefit of the doubt and say the Nats will get similar production here in 2015.
Third base
2012-794 OPS
2013-768 OPS
2014-838 OPS
Ryan Zimmerman was consistent from 2012 to 2013 and was not a reason for their failures. Rendon seems legit and likely to repeat 2014. Another wash.
Outfield:
2012-747 OPS
2013-756 OPS
2014-763 OPS
Pretty consistent group. Rather than go through each individual person, i think as a group in 2015 theyll be close enough to their 2014 production to call it a cash.
SP:
Strasburg/Zimmerman/Gio
2012- 553 IP, 3.00 ERA
2013- 591 IP, 3.21 ERA
2014- 572 IP, 3.10 ERA
These are the 3 SP who have been with the Nats the last 3 season, and collectively as a group, their stats have been constant as well. Assuming one of Strasburg/Zimmerman is dealt for Scherzer, i think we’ll see similar production from these 3 guys again.
#4/5 starters:
2012- 354 IP, 3.75 ERA (Jackson, Detweiler)
2013- 351 IP, 4.17 ERA (Haren, Detweiler, Jordan, Ohlendorf)
2014- 362 IP, 2.64 ERA (Roark, Fister)
Ding ding. And we have found the other main culprit for their 2013 failures. The 2014 Nats were so successful because they got ace-level production out of the “back” of their rotation. But was it for real? Could the 2015 Nats 4/5 starters also have their ERA’s jump by .50? I certainly think so.. Roark and Fister both benefited from really low BABIPs in the .260s. Roark outpeformed his FIP by .62, Fister by 1.52. A regression is definitely to be expected, and i think that the loss of production here will be even greater than the 12-13 loss.
Bullpen
2012- 515 IP, 3.23 ERA (3rd in NL, 3.75 ERA NL average)
2013- 477 IP, 3.56 ERA (11th in NL, 3.49 ERA NL average)
2014- 468 IP, 3.00 ERA (2nd in NL, 3.53 ERA NL average)
Looking at ERA isn’t that helpful so i provided NL average and bullpen ranks in NL, and they paint a much more complete picture. The bullpen went from a top 5 bullpen in 2012 to a bottom 5 in 2013. Is that likely to happen again? Well, they just traded away their most reliever in Clippard and Soriano is a Free agent. They do have Aaron Barrett who looks like he could step into the late innings and a bunch of young arms who might or might not develop (much like the Mets). This is the hardest area to predict, and while i dont think they’ll be as strong in 2015 as 2014, i don’t think they’ll suffer the same dropoff as they did in 2013.
I’m seeing a 2013 redux all over again. On the positions that the 2013 Nats failed at, i see the 2015 Nats dropping off in production in those same positions (except for SS and bullpen). But that’s offset by the increased dropoff in 2b and back-end rotation.
I was hesitant to call out the Nats, but after this analysis, i’m going to predict the Nats will not win 85 games next year, which will likely put them out of the playoffs.
Name, seriously. Between the NL East games alone, the Nationals are going to win 60 games. have you seen what’s going on? The Phillies suck. The braves are toast. The Nats own the Mets. Even if they go .500 outside the division they will win 100 games. Not only will the Nats cruise to the Division Champs, they will win the most games in the MLB.
I see too many similarities to 2013 to think the Nats will be good this year. They are terribly overrated.
Ill amend my statement that the Nats won’t make the playoffs, i could see a scenario where the NL east is very weak and 85 wins could be enough to win the division.
Very awesome analysis Name. I do agree there are weaknesses there. I think the 4/5 starters stand to repeat 2014 rather than 2013, but the bullpen might slide back some. I think the Nats will still run away from the division, but this team is not a 100 win lock. If all breaks right, they certainly can be. But if all breaks right for the Mets, we could win 90. Or so I’m told.
It’s spring training time and almost time for new predictions, and i was looking back in the past and found this. Yes, i’m tooting my own horn!
Another visit from Nostalgia Lane. I’m having a grand old time revisiting posts from this here blog’s ancient past
I have to admit that this “Name” character can be a cantankerous old cuss, but his analysis – describing how the 2015 Nationals were going to fall flat on their faces – was nothing less than stunningly brilliant!
I think all the nay-sayers need to collectively bow down with chants of “we’re not worthy!”
“Hopefully, Kevin Long can work with the Mets hitters enough to fix things like Curtis Granderson‘s drop in average”
Why do I keep seeing this every where I see a Met article written? The man hasn’t hit over 230 in 4 or 5 years running now and he is past his prime and deteriorating fast. What possible semi logical reason can anyone give that would make this seem even remotely possible? The only thing that kept him in the conversation as a useful OFer in the last 4 to 5 years is that he played for the Yankees and between playing 81 games in their bandbox he played another bunch at Camden Yards and Fenway so his HR totals looked impressive until you realized he played over 100 games a year in little league parks. But his average has stunk for years, there is no logical explanation anyone can give that would lead anyone to expect his average to go up.
Totally agree (re: Curtis – I thought it was a lousy signing last spring)! You know the problem with our franchise is that when they decide to spend some money, they spend it on players that few other teams show any interest (in). Wonder why?
Don’t forget th Rogers Center in Toronto. So, that’s 108 or 67% of the season in HR havens.
Good point Gus forgot about that.
Exactly, do you think anyone else would have signed Cuddyer either having to give up their first overall pick (15th no less) and the allotment money killing any chance to overcome that loss by signing some over slot kids.
If we were the ones to let go a 35 year old 1st base man in decline like the Nationals did most would applaud make way for the youth. Instead Met fans say it is a negative for them. Then we sign an oft injured 36 year old that is probably the worst defensive OFer in baseball and the move is applauded as fixing our offensive woes.
I find it amusing.
Such an astute and true point, Rob.
If the analysis is based, as it seems to be, on the proposition that anything is possible . . . then yes, yes, yes. Maybe the Mets can beat out the Nationals for the NL East crown.
I mean, crazy things happen all the time.
But when you put that aside, it’s insane.
BTW, love the Cubs move of trading for Fowler — a .375 OBP last year and the right mindset for leadoff. I haven’t check the Sandy Tracker recently, but it must be about 580 since he’s traded for a Major League player.
Love that Theo Epstein!
Every team has “ifs” including the Nats. “If” Ryan Zimerman stays moderately healthy the Nats come out ahead. Letting Adam LaRouche go, at his age, was a smart move. Because he did so well against the Mets too many in NY saw him as a monster, but he was not as monstrous in other venues.
Also, too many with short memories have forgotten how good Ryan Zimmerman is. I, for one, thought that when Zimmerman was healthy he was better than David Wright.
The Mets are going to win 100 games and the Nats less than 85? That’s total objectivity (LOL!)
Simply said: The Nats organization is seeking a WS; the Wilpons are seeking to make a profit (spending as little as possible), and continuing the franchise’s plodding towards mediocrity.
When I hear Jeff say “we are going to do everything in our power to field a winning team”, (I might not believe him) but it might pique my interest.
In the interim, to those who believe that the Mets are going to beat out the Nats this year, “sweet dreams to you”!
When Jeff Wilpon says:
“we are going to do everything in our power to field a winning team”
That means they are going to put swimsuit issue pics on their new scoreboard to try to distract the other teams hitters when they come up to the plate.
Isn’t that why they have cute cheerleaders in football? I mean after all, I can got do J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets, but it may not distract the other team in the least.
Name you say the Nat’s are terribly over-rated? Well any one living outside of New York can see that the Mets are just as flawed (if not more). Until this team can win half of their home games (that’s right play.500 ball) they are never getting into the playoffs.Moving to Citifield and having the Wilpons as owners is going to be a curse like the The Red Sox’s trading Ruth to the Yankees.
No one’s predicting the Mets to win 100 games.
Name,
Where can I find you in late September, so you can contrive excuses regarding your 85 win prophesy (for the 2015 Nats) based upon very questionable statistical logic?
Under/over from LV is likely to be at least 93, but I guess that your guesstimate of 85 is more realistic?!?
You can find me here in September, eagerly waiting to say “I told you so”.
Vegas has the Nat’s favored to win the WS at 5/1 and that was before they signed Scherzer.It’s true the Mets do not have the same kind of anticipation or expectations.
Or you could look at it as over 80% probability of not winning the World Series.
I’m not the one who predicted that the Mets would win 90 games in 2014. So I can’t to hear what his forecast is for 2015
Advice from an old man: Never bet against the line set by Vegas.
Norm, you make a good point. My cousin says that anything with a line is or can be fixed, and as you say, Vegas is very often right. Hmmmm, just saying…
I’m sorry, but that’s not how Vegas works.
If it’s a point/line spread, Vegas usually tries to set the line so that there will be an even amount of people betting on both sides. Therefore, it doesn’t matter to Vegas if they get it right/wrong at the end because they’ll end up losing nothing as long as the number people betting on both sides is close to even.
But how does Vegas make money? Vegas makes money because there is usually a transaction cost to place those bets, and that’s how they “win” in the long run. They avoid bearing any of the risk.
If it’s not a spread-type bet but instead odds-type (which is the one Pete mentioned), well then, the game is heavily in Vegas’s favor to begin with and like slot machines, they’ll rarely lose.